-Caveat Lector-
>From NewsMax.CoM
Inching Toward the Abyss
J.R. Nyquist
April 24, 1999
The Western alliance is inching toward an abyss -- either a confrontation
with Russia or a split within NATO. These are the dangers courted by
President Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Their strategy? To
bomb the Yugoslav army until it can no longer offer effective resistance to
a ground invasion.
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, his country under bombardment, is
given no alternative but to withdraw the Yugoslav army from Yugoslav
territory, making way for a NATO occupation. Milosevic now appears willing
to accept an international peacekeeping force on Yugoslav soil, providing
that NATO pulls back from the border and stops the air assault. But
President Clinton will not agree to Milosevic's compromise.
What is wrong with that compromise?
It appears that President Clinton wants the crisis to continue, if not
intensify.
More ominous yet, Washington has played a verbal game with the issue of
using ground forces in Kosovo. That verbal game continues. U.S. Secretary of
State Madeleine Albright said Wednesday that she does not "favor the
employment of ground forces" in Kosovo. But nonetheless, she declared it is
inappropriate to "rule anything out." Meanwhile, the White House opposes the
use of ground forces "at this time."
As for some other time -- the door is wide open.
Taking a closer look at official NATO statements, it would appear that a
ground invasion is, after all, in the works. On Thursday U.S. and British
officials claimed it was "prudent" to rethink NATO strategy in Yugoslavia
with regard to the employment of ground forces. NATO Secretary General
Javier Solana ordered NATO Commander Wesley Clark to update the military
assessment made in October on the use of NATO troops in Kosovo.
More striking yet, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has taken the lead in
pushing for an invasion. "Success is the only exit strategy I am prepared to
consider," said Blair on Thursday. "We will not have succeeded until an
international force has entered Kosovo and allowed the refugees to return to
their homes."
Blair further declared that NATO forces would enter Yugoslavia with or
without Milosevic's permission. "We are all internationalists now," said
Blair, "whether we like it or not."
(In the 1970s the British pop star Elton John released an album entitled
Madman Across the Water. It was supposedly a reference to President Nixon,
who bombed North Vietnam to secure a peace agreement in 1973. Perhaps an
American rock group will now return the favor, composing a run of song's
celebrating Mr. Blair.)
In other Western countries Blair's statements were greeted with skepticism.
One French diplomat took issue with the idea of a bloodless invasion of
Yugoslavia, saying: "The Yugoslav's have burrowed into the ground. They've
got tunnels everywhere."
Analysts say that 75,000 NATO troops would be required to invade Kosovo, and
if the war widened, 200,000 would be required to defeat the Yugoslav army.
Many observers think that Greece, Italy, and possibly Germany will shrink
from the prospect of a widened war.
Meanwhile, Russian mobilizations continue on land and sea. The Ukrainian and
Russian navies are presently engaged in training exercises. Dozens of
warships have been mobilized. At the same time, Russian diplomats are
courting Israel, Greece and France -- feeling out weaknesses in the West's
global position. Russia's ally, President Jiang Zemin of China, has once
again called on the People's Liberation Army to brace for a possible war.
There is "regional tension and unstable elements," he said earlier this
month. "The world is not safe."
If NATO takes its cue from the Madman Across the Water -- Tony Blair --
there might be a third world war, as Boris Yeltsin warned. If NATO countries
like Greece and Italy oppose Blair's plan of war the Western alliance could
suffer an irreparable split. What will happen next? Nobody knows. Let us
hope that cooler heads than Blair's will prevail, as Washington's doubletalk
resolves itself into a sweet song of peace.
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>From Wash (DC) Post
NATO Amends Conditions
Leaders Seek Role for Russia; More Troops, Tanks Headed to Balkans
By Thomas W. Lippman and William Drozdiak
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, April 24, 1999; Page A01
NATO leaders reaffirmed their determination yesterday to escalate the
bombing campaign against Yugoslavia until their terms for peace are met, but
modified those conditions in the hope of encouraging Russian attempts to
mediate an early resolution to the conflict over Kosovo.
The new position, outlined in a 17-point communique, represented a series of
compromises struck by NATO leaders at their summit conference here to
maintain the cohesion of the alliance one month into a growing bombing
campaign that has produced only mixed results. It sought to balance the
desire of the United States and Britain for military escalation against the
desire of several European countries for a diplomatic settlement brokered by
Russia.
U.S. officials expressed doubt that Russia's efforts will produce acceptable
results even with the modified NATO position. Underlining the point, the
Pentagon announced it is sending 2,050 more troops and several companies of
tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles to Albania.
The additional forces, the Pentagon said, were dispatched to help protect
the 24 AH-64A Apache attack helicopters scheduled to begin operating there
soon. But officials pointed out they also could become part of an invasion
force if necessary, or of an international security force for refugees
returning to Kosovo. British Defense Minister George Robertson said the
total allied force in Albania and Macedonia may reach 30,000 within a few
weeks.
In its communique after a three-hour meeting on the Kosovo air war, the
alliance said it is "prepared to suspend its air strikes" once the
government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has begun -- rather than
completed -- a withdrawal of troops and security forces from Kosovo. And the
alliance said it will seek a U.N. Security Council mandate for the
peacekeeping force it plans to send to Kosovo once hostilities have ceased,
a mandate that can be obtained only with the assent of Russia, a strong
opponent of the alliance's bombing campaign.
White House national security adviser Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger said the
alliance is committed to sending an international military force into Kosovo
whether the Security Council endorses it or not. Officials of other alliance
countries, however, said the communique reflects their strong desire to win
U.N. endorsement and Russian participation in the military force.
The communique also said NATO "remains ready to form the core of such an
international military force," a modification of its previous insistence
that the force be fundamentally composed of troops from NATO countries.
In interviews and briefings after yesterday's meeting, senior officials from
many of NATO's 19 countries gave differing interpretations of the
communique's meaning, indicating the document was drafted to allow each
country to present it at home as reflective of that government's policy.
"What the leaders were saying today is more, not less; stronger, not
weaker," Berger said.
A senior aide to Italian Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema, on the other hand,
said, "We need to box Milosevic in, but also leave a little door." The door,
he said, is the statement that NATO is prepared to suspend the bombing
before a Yugoslav troop pullout is complete.
But White House officials strenuously denied that the troop pullout language
was a softening of NATO's position. "At the insistence of the United States,
we not only required that they [Serb forces] begin withdrawing, but that
they demonstrate by a precise and rapid timetable . . . that their promises
are backed up," said White House deputy national security adviser James
Steinberg, adding that the new language "toughened the NATO position" by
clarifying what Milosevic needs to do.
NATO Secretary General Javier Solana and senior NATO officials said the
communique was drafted specifically to encourage Russia's diplomatic efforts
to broker a settlement between Milosevic and the alliance and to end the
breach between Moscow and the West that has paralyzed the Security Council.
Former Russian prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, President Boris Yeltsin's
Balkan peace envoy, met with Milosevic in Belgrade on Thursday and said
yesterday for the first time that Russia would endorse the inclusion of
foreign troops in a peacekeeping force in Kosovo.
NATO spokesman Jamie Shea said this might be "a good sign" that Milosevic
has recognized that "he needs an exit strategy far more than we do." But he
and senior officials of NATO countries said they have heard nothing from
Chernomyrdin indicating that Milosevic is close to accepting NATO peace
terms.
While the terms specified in the communique offer new diplomatic maneuvering
room, NATO leaders said they reflect no retreat from the alliance's
determination to continue the air war until Milosevic accepts its
fundamental goals. As restated in the document, these are:
"A verifiable stop to all military action" in Milosevic's campaign to
destroy the secessionist guerrilla movement in Kosovo, a province of Serbia,
and drive off the ethnic Albanian majority that makes up the rebels'
population base.
Withdrawal from the province of Yugoslav military and paramilitary forces.
Acceptance of an international military protection force to enable Kosovo's
civilian refugees to return home and unhindered access to Kosovo by relief
organizations.
And "credible assurance of his willingness to work for the establishment of
a political framework agreement" giving the province substantial
self-government.
"Our message is clear," Clinton said at a commemorative ceremony marking the
50th anniversary of the alliance. "Peace and humanity will prevail in
Kosovo. The refugees will go home. They will have security. They will have
their self-government."
The communique called for "an international provisional administration of
Kosovo under which its people can enjoy substantial autonomy" within
Yugoslavia. Diplomats said that would be the equivalent of what used to be
called a protectorate, implying a long-term commitment by NATO and -- if
Russia assents -- the United Nations to run the province.
The Kosovo communique was issued at the start of NATO's 50th anniversary
summit conference, an event planned as a celebration of the alliance's Cold
War success that has been transformed into a war council by the month-long
air campaign against Yugoslavia.
NATO's communique stressed the alliance's unanimous commitment to the war
and its objectives. Behind the display of unity and resolve, however, lay
serious differences among the allies that reflected the difficulty of
maintaining a coherent war-fighting strategy among 19 democracies.
Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, for example, questioned the rationale
for the air campaign, telling reporters: "The air raids have not led to the
end of ethnic cleansing, but rather have intensified it. Milosevic . . . has
strengthened his position."
The sensitive issue of attacking civilian targets and the heightened risk of
collateral damage surfaced in a NATO missile strike on a Serbian radio and
television building.
Italy's foreign minister, Lamberto Dini, called the action "terrible news"
and said the strike should not have been carried out since it was not an
authorized target. But British Prime Minister Tony Blair said the bombing
was "entirely justified" because television stations "are part of the
apparatus and power of Milosevic" that he has used to conduct the ethnic
cleansing campaign in Kosovo. Canada also endorsed the strike.
The question of whether to use ground troops also raised controversy.
Britain and France have concluded that ground troops may have to be sent
into Kosovo to accompany returning refugees even in the absence of
Belgrade's consent, but other governments argued that would be unwise.
Senior German officials said brandishing the threat of ground troops at this
time would provoke a serious political crisis for Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder's government. The Greens party, the junior partner in the ruling
coalition, is deeply ambivalent over the airstrikes, and many pacifist
members have vowed to bring down the government if NATO invades Yugoslavia
on the ground.
"The debate on ground troops is no longer on the table," Schroeder said,
with obvious relief. "There will be no change in the strategy," which calls
for sending troops into Kosovo only to enforce a settlement, not to fight
Yugoslav forces.
The closed-door talks did not dwell at length, U.S. officials said, on the
idea of a forcible ground invasion of Kosovo -- and the statement reaffirmed
that ground troops would go to Kosovo only after "Belgrade has unequivocally
accepted" NATO's demands. But officials said allied governments will build
up their forces in case that policy changes.
The allies debated whether to demand the removal of all Serb forces from
Kosovo. In the final statement, the word "all" was deleted in the call for
"the withdrawal of Serb forces" -- although Solana said it meant all.
Several European governments argued that since Kosovo would remain under the
authority of the Serb Republic -- which along with tiny Montenegro forms the
Yugoslav federation -- under the autonomy deal endorsed by NATO, some Serb
troops should be allowed to stay as a reflection of Belgrade's sovereignty.
There was also wrangling over how to enforce an embargo against oil and war
materials destined for Serbia. After the United States proposed military
action to stop supplies entering Montenegro's ports, France -- backed by
Italy and Greece -- insisted any blockade against the ports of Montenegro
would be a declaration of war requiring a United Nations resolution.
Other allies noted that a blockade would punish and possibly undermine the
democratic government of Montenegro, whose prime minister, Milo Djukanovic,
has opposed Milosevic's policies and whom NATO has vowed to support.
Staff writers William Branigin, Bradley Graham, John F. Harris, Sylvia
Moreno, Dana Priest, Valerie Strauss and Saundra Torry contributed to this
report.
� Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company
~~~~~~~~~~~~
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