-Caveat Lector-
Alamaine Ratliff wrote:
>Of course, another way to look is from the optimistic perspective. Why are
>Americans expected to be in charge of the world. One comment I heard after
>the decline and fall of the Wall was there were no more clear-cut or
>well-defined "enemies" any longer. What effect has the reduction of the
>DoD budget had on the economy? On the military? I read recently where the
>services are having recruitment and retention problems. Time for a
>"bogey-man" for the New Millenium? The old adage of good fences making
>good neighbours may have some relationship to the Wall and the divisions
>represented by it.
>
>The Soviets may be making a come-back (looking at some of the current
>leaders). The CIA is in Israel (Wye ?). And this whole Arabian Nightmare
>is still referred to as being the "original" policy put in place back in
>aught-91.
>
>I also tend to lean toward the "oil" question: Baker (or some Bush-ite)
>was quoted back then as saying the whole deal was about oil. The Caspian
>oil fields are being developed and now they're looking for an outlet,
>Turkey or Iran. Turkey just had a spat with the Syrians about the Kurds
>which are being spanked by the Turks in Iraq as well. Iran wants the
>Iraqis neuter-alised as well. Either way, to get the oil out of the
>one-time Soviet republic through Turkey or Iran without restriction, they
>have to have a nice, pleasant, docile neighbour. Enter Bush (Jr)?
>
One might expect that America's role as "leader of the free
world" would be diminished after the end of the Cold War, but
since it hasn't one should question whether that was their
purpose in the first place. I don't think it's a coincidence
that the greatest proponent of "free trade" also leads the world
in military and "diplomatic" activities. But of course, they
can't be as obvious about it as the British were before them.
The "peace dividend" in Canada has meant soldiers applying for
welfare to supplement their incomes and food banks opening on
military bases.
It's hard to tell what is happening in the former Soviet Union
when some Russian republics act like independent states and some
independent states act like Russian provinces (Belarus just signed
an accord with Russia to more closely integrate the two "nations").
The Caspian is a sea of confusion. On the southwest is Azerbaijan
which is run by Gaidar Aliyev. Garry Kasparov credited Aliyev's
influence with saving him after his 1984-85 World Chess Championship
match against Party favourite Anatoly Karpov was aborted. Later
Kasparov would call Aliyev a butcher for his treatment of Armenians
in Azerbaijan (Kasparov is half Armenian).
Kasparov also has some interesting ideas about Kalmykia, the Russian
republic on the northwest of the Caspian, which is run by Kirsan
Ilyumzhinov who is also president of FIDE, the world chess organ-
ising body. Khan Kirsan (the Kalmyks are Mongols who got left behind)
is proud to be dictator of a republic whose revenues come from
sheep, smuggling and subsidies from the Russian government and does
what he pleases with little fear of reprisals. This past fall
Kalmykia hosted the recent chess olympiad and, despite stealing
all the milk money from the Kalmyk peasants, it seemed that Elista's
"Chess City" would not be completed in time. A sudden flurry of
around the clock construction resulted in a "miracle" according
to those on the scene. But, according to Kasparov: "Mayor Luzhkov
(of Moscow) sent all the workers to Elista and now his brother-in-law
is the head (Prime Minister) of the Kalmykian government. Yes, what
a coincidence!" Kasparov also says that the Russian government has
no chance of finding out what is going on in Kalmykia because
Ilyumzhinov uses the FIDE bank account in Switzerland for money
laundering. In the last year Ilyumzhinov has declared his intention
to run for Russian president and threated to declare independence
for Kalmykia. And, of course, he (and Aliyev) are interested in
having the pipeline go through their territory.
But with the drop in world oil prices is Caspian oil even viable?
And, short of the WWIII in the Middle East scenario, is there any-
thing that will bring them back? I just heard on the radio that two
car companies (one Japanese, one American) have announced that
conbination gas/electric cars are going into production (the electric
motor kicks in during acceleration) and Ballard Power Systems is
working on hydrogen/oxygen fuel cells (I think Chicago just bought
some buses from them) and are now allied with a German car company
(Mercedes?). So maybe Junior is the right man for the times. After
all wasn't his greatest business skill doing nothing until his oil
companies were bought out? Maybe he'll make the magnanimous gesture
of returning complete control of oil to the producing nations for
some "minor consideration" just before the internal combustion
engine becomes obsolete.
It seems the Chinese curse is upon us ("May you live in interesting
times")
Cheers,
Gerry
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