-Caveat Lector- ----Original Message----- From: David Kellogg <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Multiple recipients of list <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Saturday, January 09, 1999 11:29 PM Subject: January/February 1999 Issue of FOREIGN AFFAIRS In the January/February 1999 issue of FOREIGN AFFAIRS . . . * THE FANTASY OF TOPPLING SADDAM: Daniel Byman, Kenneth Pollack, and Gideon Rose on why the ludicrous plans to use the Iraqi opposition to overthrow Saddam would mean a second Bay of Pigs. * THE RETURN OF DEPRESSION ECONOMICS Paul Krugman warns that the problems of the 1990s have distinct similarities with the problems of the 1930s; so do the solutions. * WHAT SANCTIONS EPIDEMIC? Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms blasts U.S. business for its campaign against sanctions. * GRAY DAWN: THE GLOBAL AGING CRISIS Investment titan Peter G. Peterson exposes the costly and dangerous threat that global aging poses to the world. ______________________________________________________________________ THE ROLLBACK FANTASY With the latest round of bombings, the question of whether Saddam Hussein can be toppled catapulted to the top of the international agenda. But three tough-minded security experts_Daniel Byman, Kenneth Pollack, and Gideon Rose_explain that all current rollback plans_which rely on Iraqi opposition and U.S. military force_are militarily ludicrous, anathema to key U.S. allies, or unacceptable to the American public. Relying on airpower would require a Desert Storm-sized air war and even then would probably flop; seizing enclaves from Saddam's grasp asks far too much of the feeble opposition army; and none of Iraq's neighbors will host guerrillas out to oust Saddam. Rollback's advocates are indulging in either wishful thinking or cynical politics. The only real option is renewed containment to keep Iraq in its box. Delusions of grandeur about toppling Saddam will lead only to another Bay of Pigs. "...support for the Iraqi opposition can and should be one component of American policy ... but only as long as such support is clearly understood to supplement containment, not supplant it. Limited containment will not necessarily get the United States what it wants. But it might help it get what it needs." THE RETURN OF DEPRESSION ECONOMICS Many economists hate to admit it, but today's economic turmoil shares some uncanny - or downright scary - similarities with the prelude to the Great Depression. M.I.T. economist Paul Krugman warns that many policymakers seem to have forgotten the basic lesson of that calamity: boost demand in the face of an economic slowdown and reduce the volatility of capital flows. Rigid adherence to anti-inflationary policies will only deepen the crises in emerging markets. As the IMF continues to insist on fiscal austerity and many governments instinctively resist capital controls, a wider recession looms. With a distinct whiff of the 1930s in the air, we had better refresh our memories and relearn the basics of Depression economics. "Around the world countries responded to the very real flaws in post-Depression policy regimes by moving back toward a regime with many of the virtues of pre-Depression free-market capitalism. However, in bringing back the virtues of old-fashioned capitalism, we also brought back some of its vices, most notably a vulnerability both to instability and sustained economic slumps. ...sooner or later we will have to turn the clock at least part of the way back: to limit capital flows for countries that are unsuitable for either currency unions of free floating; to reregulate financial markets to some extent; and to seek low but not too low inflation rather than price stability." WHAT SANCTIONS EPIDEMIC? Senator Jesse Helms takes aim at an unusual target: American big business. He argues that lobbyists have concocted wildly inflated statistics to claim that sanctions are used too often. But America cannot have a moral foreign policy without them. "Americans do not need to create jobs by selling thumbscrews to the world's tyrants. [Lobbyists] do not represent the views of the American people or most American businesses. They should be ashamed." GRAY DAWN: THE GLOBAL AGING CRISIS: Peter G. Peterson warns that we face a threat more grave and certain than those posed by chemical weapons, nuclear proliferation, or ethnic strife: the "age wave." As life expectancy grows and fertility rates decline, senior citizens will make up an ever-larger share of the total population. The effects of this demographic shift will be staggering. It will come with a whopping price tag, which will place a massive burden on an ever-smaller working-age population. Economic, social, and even military policy throughout the next century will have to respond to this unalterable trend. Unless the West recognizes the challenges to come and devises a strategy to meet them, the future will be gray and bleak. " ... global aging will become not just the transcendent economic issue of the 21st century, but the transcendent political issue as well." THE NEW PETROLEUM Senator Richard G. Lugar and former CIA Director R. James Woolsey remind us that America's addiction to Middle Eastern oil forces dangerous foreign policy compromises, worsens global warming, and strengthens unreliable Persian Gulf countries. Instead, the United States should get its energy from biomass ethanol, a new fuel that can be produced at home from almost any type of plant or even from agricultural waste. Ethanol is environmentally friendly, compatible with the U.S. transportation system, and as potent a fuel as gasoline. Recent scientific breakthroughs have sharply lowered its production cost. Now Washington must step in with tax breaks and other incentives to encourage further research and development into this homegrown alternative to a dangerous dependence. "Our growing dependence on increasingly scarce Middle Eastern oil is a fool's game_there is no way for the rest of the world to win. Our losses may come suddenly through war, steadily through price increases, agonizingly through developing-nation poverty, relentlessly through climate change_or through all of the above. It would be extremely short-sighted not to take advantage of the scientific breakthroughs that have occurred . . . accelerate them, and move smartly toward ameliorating all of these risks by beginning to substitute carbohydrates for hydrocarbons." Also in this issue: LOYAL TO A FAULT? Trusted Kennedy adviser and speechwriter Theodore Sorensen has some advice for foreign policy aides caught up in Monicagate. A president's aides have a moral commitment to their chief, but there are limits. Loyalty must be a two-way street. FUKUYAMA'S FOLLIES: So What if Women Ruled the World? Feminist essayists Barbara Ehrenreich and Katha Pollitt argue that Francis Fukuyama has it all wrong in "Women and the Evolution of World Politics," (September/October 1998). War comes not from any genetic male tendency toward violence_there is none_but from social and cultural pressures. It certainly has nothing to do with chimp behavior. Besides, who says women are not as competitive as men? A world run by women would not be as different as Fukuyama thinks. Ehrenreich: "Fukuyama concedes that, among heads of government, Margaret Thatcher is an exception to his gender dichotomy but ignores the many exceptions on the male side of the ledger - such as the antimilitaristic, social-democratic Olaf Palme and Willy Brandt. Nor does he mention the gender of the greatest pacifist leaders of the twentieth century, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Mohandas K. Gandhi." Pollitt: "Women make up only 12 percent of Congress and hold only three governorships, the first two female Supreme Court justices are still on the bench, but Fukuyama is worried that the girls are about to seize power and turn the United States into an international wimp." REVIEWS The Global Prosecutors John R. Bolton criticizes two books on war crimes tribunals. Aryeh Neier wants to try the planet's war criminals under international law. Martha Minow, rightly, is less keen. International law leads to world government. Eye of the Tiger Seth Faison reviews Bruce Gilley's Tiger on the Brink, which offers some good insights into Jiang Zemin but leaves too many questions unanswered to present a full portrait of China's president. ----------------------------------------------- FOREIGN AFFAIRS January/February 1999 issue FULL TABLE OF CONTENTS COMMENTS WHAT SANCTIONS EPIDEMIC? Jesse Helms 2 Business lobbyists are peddling wildly inflated statistics to claim that sanctions are used too often, but America cannot have a principled foreign policy without them. LOYAL TO A FAULT? Theodore C. Sorensen 9 A president's foreign policy aides have a moral commitment to their chief, but as the Clinton sex scandal shows, there are limits. Loyalty must be a two-way street. SQUANDERING TRIUMPH Charles William Maynes 15 The West botched the post-Cold War era by overestimating the power of markets, misreading ethnic conflicts, and relying on outmoded military doctrines. ESSAYS THE ROLLBACK FANTASY Daniel Byman, Kenneth Pollack, and Gideon Rose 24 The hottest foreign policy idea in Washington today is using the Iraqi opposition to topple Saddam Hussein. But all the current rollback plans are militarily ludicrous, anathema to key U.S. allies, or unacceptable to the American public. Relying on airpower would require a Desert Storm-sized air war and even then would probably flop; seizing enclaves from Saddam's grasp asks far too much of the feeble opposition army; and none of Iraq's neighbors will host guerrillas out to oust Saddam. Rollback's advocates are indulging in either wishful thinking or cynical politics. The only real option is renewed containment to keep Iraq in its box. Delusions of grandeur about toppling Saddam will lead only to another Bay of Pigs. GRAY DAWN: THE GLOBAL AGING CRISIS Peter G. Peterson 42 We face a threat more grave and certain than those posed by chemical weapons, nuclear proliferation, or ethnic strife: the "age wave." As life expectancy grows and fertility rates decline, senior citizens will make up an ever-larger share of the total population. The effects of this demographic shift will be staggering. It will come with a whopping price tag, which will place a massive burden on an ever-smaller working-age population. Economic, social, and even military policy throughout the next century will have to respond to this unalterable trend. Unless the West recognizes the challenges to come and devises a strategy to meet them, the future will be gray and bleak. THE RETURN OF DEPRESSION ECONOMICS Paul Krugman 56 Many economists hate to admit it, but today's economic turmoil shares some uncanny -- or downright scary -- similarities with the prelude to the Great Depression. Many policymakers seem to have unlearned the basic lesson of that calamity: boost demand in the face of an economic slowdown and reduce the volatility of capital flows. Rigid adherence to anti-inflationary policies will only deepen the crises in emerging markets. As the IMF continues to insist on fiscal austerity and many governments instinctively resist capital controls, a wider recession looms. With a distinct whiff of the 1930s in the air, we had better refresh our memories and relearn the basics of Depression economics. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTERS Saskia Sassen 75 Globalization generally implies decentralization and denationalization. But in international financial markets, something quite different is happening. Although market activity is spreading to new corners of the world, a powerful process of centralization is reinforcing the traditional dominance of financial capitals, led by London and New York. Battered by the Asian economic crisis, Tokyo and Hong Kong could become leading financial centers again if they open up to the world and continue to let investors snap up Asian assets at bargain prices. Even after globalization, markets will still be based in cities, not computers. THE NEW PETROLEUM Richard G. Lugar and R. James Woolsey 88 America's addiction to Middle Eastern oil forces dangerous foreign policy compromises, worsens global warming, and strengthens unreliable Persian Gulf countries. Instead, the United States should get its energy from biomass ethanol, a new fuel that can be produced at home from almost any type of plant or even from agricultural waste. Ethanol is environmentally friendly, compatible with the U.S. transportation system, and as potent a fuel as gasoline. Recent scientific breakthroughs have sharply lowered its production cost. Now Washington must step in with tax breaks and other incentives to encourage further research and development into this homegrown alternative to a dangerous dependence. SAVING AMERICA FROM THE COMING CIVIL WARS Steven R. David 103 Since the proxy fights of the Cold War ended, America has turned away from internal conflicts in other countries -- to its peril. Key states around the globe now teeter on the brink of civil war. A rebellion against Saudi Arabia's unpopular monarchy could strangle the world's oil supply. If regional tensions and anger with Boris Yeltsin lead to violence in Russia, the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of ultranationalist rogues. Armed uprisings have already broken out in Mexico and could spread at any moment, interrupting billions of dollars in U.S. trade and sending shock waves and refugees toward America's border. It is past time for Washington to develop a strategy to handle civil war. REVIEWS FUKUYAMA'S FOLLIES Barbara Ehrenreich, Katha Pollitt, et al. 118 Francis Fukuyama has it all wrong. War comes not from any genetic male tendency toward violence -- there is none -- but from social and cultural pressures. It certainly has nothing to do with chimp behavior. Besides, who says women are not as competitive as men? A world run by women would not be as different as Fukuyama thinks. IS KOSOVO REAL? Noel Malcolm, Aleksa Djilas, et al. 130 Aleksa Djilas claims that the ethnic hatreds in Kosovo are ancient, that an independent Kosovo would join Albania, and that Kosovars have no national identity. He is wrong on all counts. Plus, Djilas responds to Malcolm and others. EYE OF THE TIGER Seth Faison 140 Bruce Gilley's Tiger on the Brink offers some good insights into Jiang Zemin but leaves too many questions unanswered to present a full portrait of China's president. NEVER SAY NEVER Stephen M. Walt 146 Spencer R. Weart's new book insists that democracies will never fight one another, but his slanted reading of the past is of little help in crafting a future without wars. THE INFLATION OBSESSION James K. Galbraith 152 Four economists urge the Federal Reserve to follow other industrialized nations and adopt inflation targets. Fortunately, Alan Greenspan knows better. THE GLOBAL PROSECUTORS John R. Bolton 157 Aryeh Neier wants to try the planet's war criminals under international law. Martha Minow, rightly, is less keen. International law leads logically to world government. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 165 James Hecht on Russia and Akiko Yamanaka on U.S.-Japan relations. Visit Foreign Affairs on the World Wide Web at http://www.ForeignAffairs.org/ Gain access to updated subject indexes to all articles since 1988; read pre-publication highlights, Book reviews, and much more. Also visit Foreign Affairs ENVOY, the premier online guide to international affairs at http://www.ForeignAffairs.org/envoy/ For more information, contact: [EMAIL PROTECTED] --------------------------------------------------------------------- FA-ANNOUNCE - Foreign Affairs Announcements. 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