-Caveat Lector-
>From Int'l Herald Tribune
Paris, Friday, January 22, 1999
U.S. Plan Threatens Moscow Arms Pact
Clinton Decision on Missile Defense Could Doom START-2, Russians Say
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By David Hoffman Washington Post Service
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MOSCOW - The Clinton administration's decision to move ahead with a
national ballistic missile defense system could stifle any last hopes that
the Russian Parliament will approve the START-2 strategic arms treaty,
Russian specialists said Thursday.
The announcement by Defense Secretary William Cohen appeared certain to
aggravate relations between Moscow and Washington, which got off to a tense
beginning this year with U.S. sanctions against Russian scientific centers,
diverging views over Iraq and Kosovo and Russian impatience over Western
debt relief and loans.
The Clinton administration pledged Wednesday to spend $6.6 billion over
five years to field a national missile defense system and said it would
seek unspecified changes in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with
Russia. The treaty sharply limits the development of missile defenses. Mr.
Cohen said the United States might pull out of the treaty if Russia does
not agree to changes.
Although it will be years before such a system could be deployed, the
announcement nonetheless marked a turning point. Until now, the
administration had expressed doubt about whether such a missile defense
system was necessary or feasible. Russia has long expressed opposition to
any changes to the treaty.
The START-2 treaty was close to ratification last year before the attack on
Iraq, which triggered a backlash in the lower house of the Russian
Parliament, the State Duma, and caused a postponement. The START-2 treaty,
which would cut both sides' nuclear arsenals nearly in half, was signed in
1992 and ratified by the U.S. Senate in 1996 but has never been approved by
the Duma.
President Bill Clinton sent a letter to President Boris Yeltsin warning him
of the impending U.S. announcement on missile defense. The initial Kremlin
reaction Thursday was low-key, with advisers saying they were studying the
letter while Mr. Yeltsin is in the hospital for a stomach ulcer.
But several specialists said the move would provoke a negative reaction in
Russia. Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace Moscow Center, said there was a growing anti-American
sentiment, and START-2 ratification could be the first casualty.
''The whole window of opportunity for START-2 that opened up last year has
now closed,'' he said.
Alexei Podberiozkin, a Communist Party member of Parliament who recently
decided to support START-2 ratification, said the U.S. decision to build a
missile defense system could be the death knell of the strategic arms
treaty.
''Certainly it will make ratification of START-2 impossible,'' he said.
''But we don't know how far this decision goes beyond the ABM Treaty,'' he
added. ''It must be studied carefully.''
Paul Podvig, a researcher at the Center for Arms Control, Energy and
Environmental Studies in Moscow, said draft legislation in the Duma to
accompany the START-2 ratification already stipulated that the United
States must stick by the ABM Treaty. ''It will be very difficult to get
START-2 ratified if the United States is serious about changing the ABM
Treaty,'' he said.
''The reaction to this kind of proposal, from the Duma, politicians, and
the military, will be very negative,'' he added. ''When Cohen said that if
Russia doesn't play along, we will withdraw - that, in these circumstances
right now, is not the kind of statement that will be taken lightly here.''
''I have an impression that the United States has given up on START-2,''
Mr. Podvig said. ''They see that the chances to get it ratified by the Duma
are very small'' and ''that Russia is going to destroy our missiles with or
without START-2. They see that Russia is going to reduce anyway, so why
worry that much?
''The Duma got as close to ratification as it could'' before the Iraq
bombing, he said. ''Everything was more or less in place. I think that
somebody in the State Department or the administration should have thought
about that, about timing, and they didn't. Which means they just don't
care.''
'Rogue Nation' Threat Cited
Dana Priest of the Washington Post reported earlier from Washington:
Defense Secretary William Cohen said the missile defense system was needed
to respond to a growing missile threat from North Korea and other nations.
''We are affirming that there is a threat, and the threat is growing, and
that it will pose a danger not only to our troops overseas but also to
Americans here at home,'' Mr. Cohen said Wednesday.
Because a workable missile defense system must still overcome daunting
technological obstacles, Pentagon officials said a system probably could
not be deployed until 2005, two years later than originally predicted.
Mr. Cohen pointed out that the U.S. system would not be able to shoot down
the thousands of warheads that Russia could launch. ''The limited national
missile defense capability we are developing is focused primarily on
countering rogue nation threats and will not be capable of countering
Russia's nuclear deterrent,'' he said.
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