-Caveat Lector-

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Thursday, January 28, 1999 Published at 20:41 GMT

'Internet shares lottery'


'Internet shares lottery'
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has compared buying Internet shares to
purchasing a lottery ticket.

He said that while some Internet stocks are worth the prices being paid for
them, the "vast majority of Internet companies are almost certain to fail".

Investors buying shares are effectively gambling on which companies will
succeed according to Mr Greenspan.

He said the 'hype' surrounding the Internet could have contributed to
investors rushing to buy stocks.


<Picture: [ image: width=150]>

Mr Greenspan is the most influential banker in the world and his comments
frequently move markets. This is the first time he has commented directly on
the tremendous growth in Internet stock prices.

However, on this occasion the market appeared to shrug off his comments, with
Internet stocks enjoying another strong day on Thursday.

Internet shares have soared dramatically in recent months as investors have
become excited about the rapid growth in the popularity of the worldwide
computer network and the surge in the amount of online business.

But many of the companies have still to make a profit and there are growing
fears from analysts that prices may have risen far too high, too soon.

Mr Greenspan's comments were backed up by some share experts.

Barry Hyman, a market strategist at Ehrenkrantz, King and Nussbaum in New
York, said: "He is looking at the reality of the situation."

On the fast track


<Picture: [ image: width=150]>

Revenue in Internet companies soared through the roof last year, fuelling the
US stock market rally in technology stocks.

Leading Internet companies are now worth more than some of the most
illustrious and established firms on Wall Street.

According to a Financial Times survey, Microsoft has recently taken over from
General Electric as the world's largest company by market value.

Yahoo!, one of the few profitable Internet companies and the leading portal on
the Web, has also been a big riser. Valued at $50bn, the company is now worth
twice as much as Boeing or Texaco.



Merger excitement

The huge growth in the Internet has sparked a flurry of merger activity as
companies seek a bigger share of the market. This in turn has pushed prices
higher.

Earlier this month, high-speed Internet provider @Home bought Excite, one of
the leading portal websites, for a staggering $6.7bn, in one of the biggest
Internet deals ever.

Last year, AOL paid $4.2bn for the acquisition of Netscape.

Opposition to Clinton

Testifying before the Senate Budget Committee, Mr Greenspan also reiterated
his opposition to President Clinton's plan to invest big budget surpluses in
the stock market to fund the US social security programme.

Mr Greenspan warned that the plan could put the US economy at risk.

"Investing a portion of the social security trust fund assets in equities, as
the administration and others have proposed, would arguably put at risk the
efficiency of our capital markets and thus, our economy," said Mr Greenspan.
The Economy Contents

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