-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/ <A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A> ----- Oil Patch Woes Saudi Riyal Comes Under Selling Pressure Central bank intervenes heavily Saudi Arabia's economic problems resulted in heavy intervention in currency markets yesterday by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency as pressure grew on the riyal. One banker said SAMA, the kingdom's equivalent of a central bank, "flooded" the market with dollars. The last time the agency intervened was last summer, when, in the wake of the Russian crisis, it is believed to have spent close to $1bn to support the riyal. With the outlook for oil prices not expected to improve, Saudi Arabia's oil-dependent economy is facing one of its most difficult periods and public finances are expected to come under further strain. That has led some speculators to bet on a devaluation. The six-month forward rate for the riyal, which is pegged to the dollar, is at its lowest for at least nine years. "After the Brazilian peg went, people have been looking at other fixed rates where public finances are coming under pressure," said a banker yesterday. "Given that the outlook for oil prices is weak, they think Saudi Arabia's current situation will persist." SAMA in August ruled out a devaluation and bankers said the central bank's position was likely to remain unchanged. Although much of the short-selling came from big hedge funds outside Saudi Arabia, there were rumours yesterday that even Saudi companies were starting to take action to avoid being hit by a devaluation. "Some of those who shorted the riyal got burned and this probably stopped the momentum building up," said a banker. Low oil prices are presenting a daunting challenge for Crown Prince Abdullah, who is managing the day-to-day affairs of the kingdom. They have forced the world's largest oil producer to cut spending by 12 per cent in the 1999 budget. Saudi Arabia's budget deficit last year reached 9.4 per cent of gross domestic product against 1.1 per cent in 1997. Saudi Arabia has foreign assets of more than $60bn, but estimates of foreign exchange reserves that can be used immediately to support the currency vary widely. Mohamed El-Erian, managing director at Salomon Smith Barney, said Saudi Arabia had a clean balance sheet on external debt and could raise funds through syndicated loans. "This is also an economy which can reduce public spending very sharply if it has to do so," he said. The Financial Times, Feb. 26, 1999 The Adventures of Rapeman One More Skeleton from the Closet by Mark Steyn He raped her. Old news. Get over it. He raped her. Or rather (for we must observe the niceties) she alleges he raped her. That's what Juanita Broaddrick told The Wall Street Journal last Friday. That's what The Washington Post reported Saturday -- on page one. That's what The New York Times somewhat tardily got around to letting its readers in on yesterday -- although the fastidious Times boys forebore to let the word "rape" sully their account, preferring the term "assault" and noting only that "he forced her down to the bed and had intercourse with her," which would be rape if Mike Tyson did it but with Bill Clinton qualifies merely as a marginally non-consensual relationship. He raped her. Okay, he assaulted her. He bit her lip and rammed his penis into her vagina. And what happened? Nothing. No-one on the Sunday talk shows raised the issue. It wasn't on the TV news, it wasn't on the radio news. Instead of running with "Is Our President A Rapist?", Time and Newsweek put the alleged rapist's wife on the cover in regal pose and cooed over the unstoppable momentum for her mooted Senate campaign. He raped her. That's what she told Lisa Myers of NBC News back in January, just as the impeachment trial was getting underway. But the network got cold feet -- unlike the president, who always keeps his socks on. "The good news is you're credible," Miss Myers informed her interviewee. "The bad news is you're very credible" -- a problem peculiar to American journalism. Last night, with Mr. Clinton acquitted and Senator-elect Rodham cruising to victory in the New York primary, NBC decided it was finally safe to air Miss Myers' report on Dateline. So what will happen now? Nothing. He raped her. Old news. Get over it. Move on. The country's reached "closure." No, it hasn't. It's reached "Denial." Denial is a small town in Arkansas, midway between Hope and Hot Springs, where all the men are abusers but all the women feel it would be unseemly to bring it up. A zillion Clinton women ago, I remarked that the United States was beginning to resemble one of those Sam Shephard plays set in a crumbling farmhouse where everyone in the family knows there's a dead baby buried in the backyard but they all agree not to mention it, even though its rotting corpse silently and remorselessly contaminates everything. Back in those days, when it seemed the president was simply groping the odd breast hither and yon, my comparison was intended as metaphor. But the metaphor is getting dangerously close to prosaic reality. First, Americans learned to accept that their president was an adulterer; next, a pants-dropper; now, a rapist. It's all too easy to imagine, say, a year from now, a decomposed corpse being dug up on the outskirts of Little Rock, the spawn of some unfortunate gubernatorial liaison circa 1987. In a typically artful invention, Mr. Clinton told Mrs. Broaddrick, as he zipped up his pants, not to worry, he was sterile, the result of mumps. The conception of his daughter shortly after this 1978 encounter represents what the lawyers would call "conflicting testimony." I suppose it's possible to believe Mr. Clinton's denial (through his lawyer) of Mrs. Broaddrick's story. Just as it was possible to believe his denial of Gennifer Flowers' story -- until he conceded having sex with her in his Paula Jones deposition. Just as it was possible to believe his denial of Monica Lewinsky's story -- until the stained dress found its way to the FBI crime lab. Just as it was possible to believe his denial of Paula Jones' story -- until he paid her 850,000 bucks. But The Wall Street Journal's Dorothy Rabinowitz, who heard Mrs. Broaddrick's grim story at first hand, believes her. Miss Rabinowitz is one of my few journalist heroes. She's spent much of the last decade tirelessly re-investigating the soi-disant "child abuse" epidemic of the 80s: Through her efforts, some of the most ludicrous cases have been re-opened, falsely accused "abusers" have been released from jail, those whose lives were destroyed have been belatedly vindicated. No one knows better than Miss Rabinowitz how easy it is to concoct charges of sexual assault. Yet she's come to the conclusion that what her interviewee alleges did, in fact, take place. "This is the part that always stays in my mind," says Mrs. Broaddrick. "The way he put on his sunglasses. Then he looked at me and said, 'You better put some ice on that.'" Bill Clinton feels your pain even after causing it. It's true that Mrs. Broaddrick has previously denied the rape. It's also true that Monica initially denied servicing the president, as did Elizabeth Ward Gracen -- and both relationships were eventually conceded by Mr. Clinton. But once again it's the telling detail that sticks. A month ago on this page, I made a joke about the convenient do-it-yourself Home Affidavit Kit ("I [Your Name Here], being of sound body, did not have sexual relations with William Jefferson Clinton"). But it turns out it's no joke. Mrs. Broaddrick's lawyer contacted an old friend, Bruce Lindsay, White House deputy counsel. Shortly afterwards, the president's attorney Bob Bennett faxed back the affidavit of another woman who'd denied involvement with Mr. Clinton. Mrs. Broaddrick's lawye r replaced the original name with that of his client and dropped it in the mail. This is the first administration to keep a standardized denial-of-sex affidavit on file. Juanita Broaddrick's rapist wasn't just a boss or a powerful, well-connected man: He was at that time the attorney-general of Arkansas, the state's chief prosecutor, the man responsible for enforcing rape law. Yet Mr. Clinton's nation of deniers will still shrug: Why didn't she press charges? Likewise, when Kathleen Willey -- you remember, last March's Psycho Slut Of The Month -- said she wanted to slap his face, skeptics demanded: Why didn't she? Here's why. The best film about Bill Clinton is not Primary Colors or Wag The Dog but a little-noticed Clint Eastwood thriller released in 1997. Absolute Power opens with a late-night rendezvous between President Richmond (Gene Hackman) and the young attractive wife of one of his major campaign donors. He pushes her crudely down to crotch level -- the Monica position. But things get a little rough and she slaps his face -- as Mrs. Willey wanted to do. The president howls. She struggles to break free. He places her hand on his crotch and she grabs it hard. He screams again. At this point, the Secret Service men standing guard burst in, see this woman physically threatening their president and, as they're trained to do reflexively, shoot her dead. That's why Mrs. Willey stayed her hand. The United States can probably live with O.J.'s jury nullification: It seems the only person the Juice has ever wanted to kill was his wife -- oh, and her hapless friend. But, if he moved in next door, one could be reasonably confident he wouldn't re-offend. Not so with O.J.'s sometime golfing partner Bill Clinton. There is a sexual thug in the White House and Americans cannot even slap his face. The National Journal, Feb. 25, 1999 Chinese Missiles Beijing Threatens to Transfer Missile Technology to Other Countries Membership in WTO Doubtful Beijing made a veiled threat yesterday to transfer missile technology to unspecified third countries if the US persisted with a controversial plan to provide a missile defence shield for some of China's neighbours, including Taiwan. China also launched a strong verbal attack on the US, saying that Washington's decision this week to block the sale of a satellite to a Chinese-led corporation would have a negative effect on trade and economic co-operation. Beijing's reaction to the possibility that Taiwan, China's rival since 1949, may be included in a US-backed Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system has been uncompromising. Officials said a TMD shield for Taiwan, Japan and South Korea would be seen as the start of a cold war policy of containment against China by the US, and could accelerate the regional arms build-up. It could also be interpreted as US recognition for a separate Taiwanese identity, a senior Chinese official said. Beijing maintains a long-standing threat to use military force to prevent Taiwan becoming independent. The official, who declined to be identified, said that the installation of a US-backed theatre missile defence system in Asia would constitute a US violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a treaty which aims to curb the spread of sensitive missile technology. "Since the US can lead the way in breaking this (MTCR) regime, other countries have an absolute right not to follow the rules of this regime and undertake co-operation on missiles and missile technology with third countries," the official said. Although China has not signed the MTCR, it has agreed to abide by its principles. In what was hailed as an important sign of progress at last year's US-China summit, Beijing said it would "study" acceding to the regime. Washington has long been concerned that Beijing could supply missile technology to its ally, Pakistan, thereby fuelling an already fierce arms race between Pakistan and South Asia's other nuclear power, India. China has in the past also made a link between US promises to decrease weapons transfers to Taiwan and a corresponding undertaking by Beijing against arms sales to Iran. The deterioration in US-China ties provides a stiff challenge for Madeleine Albright, US secretary of state, due to visit Beijing over the weekend to discuss security, and diplomatic issues. Diplomats said there was a danger that animosity over TMD and the blocked satellite sale could undermine the fragile hope that exists for a deal on China's admission into the World Trade Organisation when Zhu Rongji, the Chinese premier, visits Washington in April. Both sides have recently made upbeat comments on the possibility of a WTO deal for China, even though the commercial hurdles to such an agreement remain forbidding. The Financial Times, Feb. 26, 1999 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. 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