<center>Food Supply Update: December, 1998
Y2K Food Supply Prospects Paint Frightening Picture
copyright � 1998, by Geri Guidetti
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It's crunch time. Here comes 1999, and it promises to be a dilly. Not
since the days when guns replaced sharpened hunting sticks, and grain
mills replaced crude, hand-hewn mortars and pestles, has a year's
rollover meant more to the question of whether or not there will be
enough food for the future. Simply put, what we do�as nations, states,
businesses, families and individuals�in the next twelve months, may well
determine what, when, and if we will eat in the year 2000 and beyond.
Over the past three years, I have been sounding an alarm that our food
supply is much less safe and secure than any of us can imagine, largely
due to vulnerabilities wrought by the same technology that has brought us
so much food. We've created a monster, and the monster's about to get
sick. If you come to the same conclusion, it will raise your anxiety
level. Most of us don't need anymore anxiety in our lives, yet the flip
side of that is that it is better to know, when you might be able to do
something about it, than not to know and be helpless to change the
outcome. It is with some apprehension that I offer some thoughts about
the bigger food supply picture for 1999 and prospects for Y2K.
We will redefine food in the year 2000. It may take a little while, but
that
must-have-super-size-fried-double-whopper-with-bacon-and-cheese-with-cherries-
garcia-and-big-gulp-chasers
will be metamorphosed into a
grateful-to-have-bowl-of-vegetable-soup-with-homemade-bread-with-water-chaser.
And remember, if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the
problem.
Despite the calm reassurances and optimistic projections of elected
leaders, appointed agency heads and corporate CEOs, the ugly truth about
our collective, global impotence to purge our infrastructure of the
so-called Millennium Bug is leaking, seeping, oozing out. The Millennium
Bug is the Ebola of our technology based existence. There is no cure for
Ebola, and it will infect the computer-dependent food supply monster in
the year 2000. Unless we hear and see proof, in the next few months,
that the complex production, processing, distribution and sales limbs of
the beast are fixed�or that effective contingency plans are in
place�increasing public awareness and the resulting panic will make it
sick well before the close of 1999.
Let's look at some prospects for disease prevention. The U.S. Department
of Agriculture (USDA) now has a web site offering called, "Facts About
the Y2K Problem and the Food Supply Sector." You can find it at
http://www.fsis.usda.gov/OM/y2kfact2.htm. It is here that you will find
Secretary of Agriculture, Dan Glickman's, public statement on the
problem. He observes that it takes the work of
"tens of thousands of people" to produce a meal for an American family.
He then says:
"I must confess, however, that until recently I hadn't thought very much
about the connection between food on our tables and computers. But, as a
new millennium approaches, that link is becoming all too clear....We are
facing the potential of serious disruption because of this problem...."
Interesting. In July of 1997 I published an Update citing data in one of
the USDA's own reports on the extent of computers in all aspects of
agriculture and posed the questions, at that time, concerning potential
impacts on our food supply. Had Mr. Glickman even seen that USDA report?
Had he thought about its implications for our nation's food in Y2K? In
his current statement, he goes on to say,
"That's why USDA, along with the rest of the Administration, is hard at
work to make sure our internal systems are Y2K compliant. We are also
working with our partners in state and local governments who help deliver
federal programs to make sure our computers continue to talk to each
other and perform the work they are programmed to do. Now, through the
President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, the federal government has
undertaken a massive outreach effort to heighten awareness of the Y2K
problem.
"The Council has asked USDA, working with the Departments of Defense,
Health and Human Services, State, and the Commodities Futures Trading
Commission, to lead the government's awareness campaign to the food
supply sector."
Let's get this straight. First, Dan Glickman, the head of the federal
agency that oversees food production for the U.S. and much of the rest of
the world, just recently became aware of the connection between
computers and food? Next, the newly formed President's Council on Year
2000 Conversion has asked the USDA to work with The Departments of
Defense, Health and Human Services, and State to lead the government's
awareness campaign on Y2K to the food industry ?
The Department of Defense? On November 23rd, the Department of Defense
was given a D-minus on the House of Representative's quarterly report
card on its Y2K progress on mission critical systems. Mission CRITICAL
systems only. On November 27th, the Defense Department's own Inspector
General accused the Pentagon of falsifying Y2K compliance reports
released by its Special Weapons Agency, the agency�are you sitting
down?--that manages our nuclear weapons stockpile. (Falsifying reports.
Isn't that the same thing as lying?) The Special Weapons Agency admits
that it did, indeed, certify computer systems as Y2K compliant without
completing testing on them, and the Pentagon admits to having no
explanation for its agency's misrepresentation. In fact, only 25 percent
of systems reported by the Defense Department as being compliant actually
were, according to a report released by the Inspector General in July.
THIS is the department that has been asked to lead, with USDA, food
supply industry awareness.
USDA's second, assigned leader in this "massive outreach effort to
heighten awareness..." is the Department of Health and Human Services,
November 23rd recipient of an F grade on their Y2K report card. It seems
this department which is responsible for administering the nations
Medicare program has only fixed 7 of their 100 mission critical systems.
Given the potentially catastrophic consequences of a failed Medicare
system in 2000, how much of their staff and budget do you think they will
assign to a food supply awareness campaign?
The Department of State, the third assigned leader, is yet another rated
F agency. ( If you still have some question about whether we are in good
hands, overall, with our federal agencies, the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) received an F as well. It seems their
recently purchased computer system is not Y2K compliant. Rep. Stephen
Horn said, "They receive the dunce of the year award.")
Back to Secretary Glickman's official Y2K statement:
"The best way we can do that (lead the government's awareness campaign
to the food supply sector) is by forming a partnership with industry
groups whose members are involved in food production and distribution.
Our goal: to make sure everyone involved in food supply production,
processing, distribution, and sales is aware of their potential Y2K
problems, understands the importance of acting now to check their
systems, and knows where they can go for help."
I do pray that even a quarter of "everyone involved" in food supply has
not waited until now for this leadership in awareness, understanding, and
"checking their systems." If so, the party's over because there will be
no food served.
A MESSAGE TO EVERYONE INVOLVED IN PRODUCTION, PROCESSING, DISTRIBUTION
AND SALES OF FOOD IN THE U.S.: According to several of the nation's top,
most respected senior programmers�the men and women working in the belly
of this sick Y2K beast�it is already too late for awareness,
understanding and checking. It is too late to write a plan of action.
It is too late to expect to find and keep programmers to repair all of
your systems. It is too late. If you are to remain in business after
1999, if you are to become part of the solution, if you are to be there
for the rebuilding of our infrastructure in the next century, it is time
for contingency planning. It's not too late for that.
If Americans and, for that matter, the rest of the technology-dependent
world, are not to panic about year 2000 food supplies in 1999, please
answer honestly�and PUBLISH WIDELY�responses to the following: How are
you working now to ensure us that you can deliver the goods if your
mission critical computers collapse? If your suppliers' and vendors'
computers collapse? Farmers--if your tractors don't work? If the Global
Positioning Satellite system some of you use to farm doesn't get fixed?
If you can't get fuel for your farm equipment? If your combines can't
harvest? What seed will you plant in Y2K if your spring seed shipments
don't arrive in February and March 2000? How will you produce food and
seed for 2001 if you miss the year 2000 planting? If the multinational
hybrid seed producers can't produce seed for you? How will you plant if
there's no gas or diesel at your local supplier for your equipment in
2000? If you can't get fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides? Are you
stocking up now? CAN you stock up given your current financial condition?
Supermarket chains: How are you planning now to stock your stores so
folks can have food on hand to see them through at least a few months of
2000, if necessary? Are you increasing your stocks now to ensure us that
there will be enough? We read that whole cities only have 72 hours of
food in their pipelines. That the U.S. only has 3 months worth within
its borders. Have you communicated that to emergency services and civil
defense organizations in your city? What are your alternatives to
just-in-time inventory management? Can you find/build space for longer
term food product storage? How are you planning to sell food when your
check-out scanners fail--if the power goes out in Y2K? How will you
total cash orders�hand-held solar calculators? Have you bought them?
Food Processors: How are you working to assure us that those canned
beans will be processed long enough to kill botulism bacteria? Are there
manual overrides for your conveyor belts and heat/pressure canning
operations? Have you talked to your suppliers about alternative methods
of getting the beans to put into those cans? How will you get the huge
amounts of water you need to process food if the municipal water systems
go down? If the water is insufficiently processed and contaminated?
Conversely, if it contains dangerously high levels of chlorine? Have you
thought this through?
Food distribution centers: How will you know which store needs what if
the scanners and computer calculations go haywire in Y2K? How will you
get product to ship if railway shipments are delayed or non-existent. If
some/many/most of your truckers are not able to deliver product for you?
Is there a basic list of products that you will ship to each and every
store if there is no computer communication between you? Can you do it
by telephone? What if there are no telephones?
Food industry leaders: Have you done the "big picture thinking" about
your industry if a worst case scenario is realized in Y2K? Are you aware
of what a worst case scenario would be like? Have you done the "dominoes
thinking?" What proportion of the industry is now devoted to production
of highly-processed, energy and computer dependent foods? Have you talked
among yourselves about rethinking food product needs in a national
emergency? With rolling blackouts and intermittent refrigeration? Can a
portion of your factories be retooled to produce foods with high,
concentrated nutrition and a long shelf-life�no refrigeration needed.
Now ?
Enough questions. I encourage readers to share them and your own food
supply questions with anyone involved in food production or supply in
your area; your supermarket manager; your mom and pop grocer; with
emergency preparedness groups; with clergy; your city council president;
your mayor; your state representatives; your boss; your mother-in-law;
whomever. Remember: if we're not part of the solution, we're part of the
problem. The first part of doing contingency planning will be to raise
the volume on the questions we have and to persistently insist on
answers. When we have answers we think we can trust, we can then make
the personal and community decisions necessary for survival. REAL
leadership is obviously not going to come from the top on this. It's
going to come from the bottom�grass roots. From you�all of you.
If the senior programmers are right�if it's too late to fix even the
mission critical systems�then food and water will prove to be our most
critical national concern in mid- to late 1999. Electrical failures and
fuel supply interruptions will make them obsessions in 2000.
Our entire human food supply is based on plants and plant seeds. Seed
for farmers may be in short supply in 2000. New, hybrid and non-hybrid
seeds produced in 1999 for the year 2000 crop may not reach all who need
it due to transportation and distribution breakdowns. Those commercial
farmers who didn't stock two years worth of fertilizers, herbicides and
pesticides in 1999 may be out of luck in 2000. Most of these inputs are
petrochemical based, and the refineries and chemical companies may be
plagued by their embedded chip problems. (A horrifying post by a
refinery worker recently claimed that refineries will NOT be functional
when the clock strikes twelve on January 1, 2000. He claims they can't
even find all of the embedded chips to test unless they break down and
rebuild all of the refineries. There's no time for that. Guess we won't
know if refineries and fuels will make it until January 1st.)
If international and national oil, gas and electricity are not in good
shape, several of the multinational seed and chemical giants will run
into serious Y2K difficulties. This scenario WOULD affect the food
supply for the year 2000 and 2001. Distribution of diesel fuel and
gasoline supplies to run farm machinery may be undependable. Seasonal
planting deadlines would be missed. Seeds or no seeds, many crops would
not get planted, and that would prove deadly for 2001. That year would
be worse than 2000. Those with a cache of non-hybrid seeds and some land
to grow it on should at least be able to eat come summer and fall. Those
who learn how to multiply and save that seed for 2001 and beyond would no
longer be part of the problem, but part of the solution. They'd be less
likely to go hungry.
Unless we get some fast, honest ,complete answers, AND encouraging ones
as well, 1999 will be a year of food panic. Like your withdrawals from
your bank account, what you take out of the store will be limited. Rice:
$7.29 for a 10 pound bag, reads the ad. Limit, one. Coming to a store
near you. Soon.
You have to be part of the solution. We have a year to reach more
people, to push for serious contingency planning, to help one another.
Think village. Think community. Grow a non-hybrid seed garden THIS
summer. Multiply the seed. Give some away. Learn to can and dry food.
Teach others to do the same. Teach your family members, too, in case
anything happens to you. Be part of the solution.
Ebola kills its host by infecting host cells with its "bad code",
corrupting and commandeering host DNA, forcing it to spew out bad,
instead of normal data, replicating the virus, over and over again,
until the whole host body is one seething bag of bad virus. Though there
have been a couple of reports of successful treatment with antibodies
against this monster, aggressive support of progressively failing host
systems is the only treatment available to date. There is, at this time,
no hope of going into every cell in every host and excising or fixing the
bad code. There is no magic bullet.
By a combination of arrogance, ignorance, greed and denial, we have
infected the global "host" with a technological Ebola. It is now
systemic. If the senior programmers are right, in 1999, we will begin to
bleed. In 2000, we will hemorrhage. Our focus must now shift from
expecting to cure it to contingency planning for critical, life systems
support. Electricity. Food. Water. Telecommunications. Fuel.
Medicine. From these, with newly found humility, we will rebuild.....Geri
Guidetti, The Ark Institute
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The Ark Institute, PO Box 142, Oxford, OH 45056. Non-hybrid seeds,
educational materials, and support for sustainable food self-sufficiency
and self-reliance.
You CAN do this! http://www.arkinstitute.com
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