>From Kanwa Intelligence Review Interesting tidbits considering the Chinese technology scandal ... http://web.ica.net/~kanwa/english/index.html CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE BOTH AGAINST THE JAPANESE AND US EXPANSION OF THEIR SECURITY ALLIANCE ------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Kanwa news Feb 25) The Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov emphasized at the Russian Embassy in Tokyo in Feb 21st, his position against the US and Japanese effort to expand the coverage of the Japan-US security alliance. He claimed that any alliance or group should be exclusively of defensive nature and should not be directed against any third country. In addition, Ivanov also criticized the TMD, which is now under cooperative development by Japan and the USA. The above position and attitude of Russia are totally close to those of China. This indicates the arrival of the time when these two countries have joined forces to oppose the TMD and the Japan-US security alliance. There has been no change in Russia's attitude of opposition to the TMD and to the US and Japanese effort to expand the coverage of the Japan-US security alliance. Compared with China, however, Russia has always made a relatively mild criticism instead of an aggressive one. The first reason is that the Taiwan issue is a very sensitive one to China. In the meantime, as F.Malichev, the former Chief of Taiwan Affairs Division of the Russian Foreign Ministry indicated to the KWIC reporter, Russia feels that fundamental changes have taken place in the nature of the Japan-US security alliance since the end of the Cold War. In the Far East, this alliance is more directed against North Korea and China. The above criticism of Ivaniv is the first one that has clearly reflected the Russian attitude since 1997. Despite Russia's criticism and the disturbance of the territorial issue to the Japan-Russian relationship, the two countries will still become closer and "the Three Principles of Hashmoto" that has the guideline of "mutual trust, mutual benefit, and long-term development" will be carried out in the bilateral relationship. This is all because Japan believes that the healthy development of the Japan-Russian relationship is conducive to containing China. In 1998, the Japanese National Defence Department even sent the pilots of its Self-defence Airforce to Russia to learn the flying skills for the SU27 now used by the Chinese airforce. For Russia, on the other hand, it also requires the cooperation from Japan in its effort to develop the Far East, to promote its Asian/Pacific multilateral security system, and to check the Chinese influence. Therefore, Russia supports Japan's effort to become the permanent member of the UN Security Council. The triangular relationship between Japan, Russian, and China has been very complicated in history. Sometimes, Japan and China join forces to oppose "hegemonism" but sometimes, China and Russia form an alliance to fight against "the revival of militarism". Even today, this triangular relationship does not develop in an even way. However, the factor that may contribute to the repetition of confrontation against one another has now been ruled out (Satoko Tomiyama). CHINA IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE US NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENCE ------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Kanwa news March 3, 1999) Compared with the TMD, the US National Missile Defence (NMD) has pounded at the Chinese military theorists in a more practical manner. A Chinese strategic scholar indicates to the KWIC reporter that the TMD is now only a project under "exploration" and its political significance well exceeds its usage in the actual combat. The reason why Taiwan is so concerned about such a topic is that it hopes to enhance the atmosphere of the political relationship between Japan, the USA, and Taiwan. In addition, the USA will not see the military strength between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait out of balance. However, quite a few scholars believe that at the current stage, the US NMD development program is intended to be directly aimed at the limited "second nuclear counter-attack" capability of China and the threat of the NMD is more practical than that of the TMD. The NMD will really force China to increase its military investment and to review its existing strategic thinking of "the limited nuclear retaliation". According to the US NMD program, the first three years will be spent on the development of the national missile defence system and another three years will be used for its deployment. The USA will decide in 2000 whether or not it will deploy the national missile defence system. If it is deemed necessary, the USA will first deploy in one area the land-based interceptive missiles within three years, i.e. by the year 2003, in order to gain the initial combat capability. The process from the development of the NMD to the decision to deploy it involves around 2.5 billion US dollars while the actual deployment of one such system including 100 interceptive missiles costs about 7.5 billion US dollars. Thus, the total comes to 10 billion US dollars. One NMD system can handle the attacks of five to twelve ICBMs on the USA. It is exactly equivalent to the "second counter-attack capability" China possesses against the USA. Obviously, the NMD program is a new provocation to China. It is worth attention what new changes China will make in its theory of nuclear deterrence and how it will associate the theory with the so-called "military struggle to safeguard the territorial integrity", in addition to the possible increase in its ICBMs within a short period of time and to the intensification of its confrontation methods like the multi-warhead attack effectiveness etc.. As early as the crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1996, China published the pictures of the DF5 ICBM and the commander of the Second Artillery claimed in an exclusive interview with the English-Language China Daily that China had the capability to repulse any nuclear attacks that came from the outside. All these have demonstrated that China has indeed extensively applied its nuclear deterrence. It was the first time in history for China to show its strength through the nuclear deterrence under the circumstances where there existed no external nuclear blackmail (Kanwa news). ~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Every great advance in natural knowledge has involved the absolute rejection of authority. -Thomas Huxley + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only.
