_________________________________ If you like our GIU, you'll love what we can do for your business. http://www.stratfor.com/services _________________________________ Global Intelligence Update Red Alert March 16, 1999 De Facto Recognition of Afghanistan's Taleban by Saudi Arabia Summary: Saudi Arabia has signed a protocol with Afghanistan's Taleban militia, allowing only Taleban-certified Afghans to participate in the annual pilgrimage to Mecca. Saudi Arabia's de facto recognition of the Taleban government suggests that the rumored split between the Taleban and Osama bin Laden may have some basis in fact. Analysis: On March 12, Agence France Presse reported that Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan's Taleban authorities had signed a protocol allowing only Afghans who have been certified by Taleban officials to enter Saudi Arabia during the annual Moslem pilgrimage to Mecca. Relations between Riyadh and the Taleban have been strained, at best, since the Taleban decided to host Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden. Well known for his alleged involvement in the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, bin Laden also vowed, long ago, to overthrow the Saudi monarchy. The Taleban have been deeply divided over their decision to host bin Laden. Bin Laden is a hero in Afghanistan for providing funding, construction equipment, and "Afghan Arab" fighters during the war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and has since supported the Taleban in their continued fight against the Russian and Iranian-backed Northern Alliance. But his presence has also been costly for the Taleban. Even though the Taleban control over 90 percent of Afghan territory, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have refused to recognize Taleban rule. The U.S. recently raised the stakes, when in meetings with the Taleban, the U.S. reserved the right to take any necessary military action against bin Laden or countries that support him. These U.S. remarks seem to have hit home with the Taleban. In February, it was reported that bin Laden, after having had a falling out with the militia, disappeared from the Taleban- controlled areas of Afghanistan. On March 5, the London newspaper "Al Hayat" reported that some members of the Taleban militia and bin Laden's Arab and Afghan guards had even exchanged gunfire. The Taleban have officially denied that bin Laden was thrown out of his stronghold or that members of the militia were involved in a gunfight with his guards. This could be true, though it could also merely be an attempt to save face with the Afghan people. The Taleban have already engaged in semantic gymnastics in an attempt to separate themselves from bin Laden without appearing to turn against him. However the falling out occurred in Afghanistan, Riyadh's move to tacitly recognize the Taleban suggests that the Taleban are no longer providing bin Laden safe harbor or, at very least, are convincingly distancing themselves from their association with him. Interestingly, the Saudis are not the only ones to be mending relations with the Taleban. Despite controlling some 90 percent of Afghanistan, the Taleban are currently engaged in negotiating a power sharing agreement with the Russian-backed forces of the Northern Alliance. On the other hand, the United States have refused to offer recognition to the Taleban, as aside from the Taleban's connections to bin Laden, Washington is concerned with the Taleban's fundamentalist interpretation of Islam. And Iran, also opposed to the Taleban version of Islam and still unsatisfied with the way in which the Taleban have accounted for the deaths of Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif, is still pressing for a broad-based coalition government. While the reasons behind the apparent Taleban decision to withdraw support from bin Laden remain unclear, the Saudi decision to sign the Pilgrimage Protocol with the Taleban strongly suggests that the split has actually occurred. How far this relationship will go remains to be seen, and full diplomatic recognition is unlikely soon. With Iran and the U.S. still hesitant to normalize relations with the Taleban, and the history of bad blood between the Taleban and the Northern Alliance overshadowing the talks, much could still go wrong. However, the first step has been taken, and with the talks with the Northern Alliance, the second as well. At the most optimistic, this could revive plans for establishing a pipeline from Central Asia across Afghanistan. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates, sign up on the web at http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
