Report: Calif. GOP Is Falling Apart

By SCOTT LINDLAW
.c The Associated Press

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- In a bluntly worded report, a Republican consultant
says the California GOP is deteriorating as it clings to messages that are
unappealing to the party's newest power groups.

``The California Republican Party is no longer a competitive statewide party;
at best it is a regional party,'' according to the report, ``The Emerging
Republican Minority.''

The report was written by GOP consultant Bernd Schwieren, a researcher for the
Assembly Republican Caucus. He declined to say who commissioned the study, a
copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press.

``California is being transformed by major demographic, economic and cultural
changes,'' the report says. ``They have led to the emergence of a new
electorate whose most dynamic elements -- women, Latinos, new economy workers
-- are the most hostile to the Republican Party.''

The result is that GOP influence has shrunk to scattered pockets around the
state -- but does not include voter-rich Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay
area. Schwieren said that makes it difficult for the GOP to win elections; all
but two Republican statewide candidates lost last year.

The report, based largely on recent information from exit polls commissioned
by the Los Angeles Times and the Voter News Service, notes that Republican
registration has dropped by more than 10 percent this decade, to about one in
three voters. And while there are more wealthy people in California, they
voted more Democratic in November.

Republicans here are still operating under strategies developed more than 30
years ago by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, the report says, even though
many of those messages are no longer viable.

Many voters now find the GOP's strategy ineffective and even offensive, the
report says. More than half of last fall's voters held college degrees, which
is part of the reason why ``GOP character/moral-based attacks failed in
1998.''

``These voters have a more tolerant view on social issues -- abortion, gay
rights, school prayer -- and are not receptive to a moralistic message,''
Schwieren writes.

The 53-page report describes an electorate that is less conservative than four
years ago, less white and more tolerant of racial minorities.

Hispanics and Asian Americans also are enjoying more clout in California
politics, and the report says the GOP is losing its share of these groups --
as well as baby boomers, the largest demographic bloc in the California
electorate.

``Baby boomers tend to be hostile to what they perceive to be the narrow
cultural message of the Republican Party. They view cultural diversity as a
strength, not a weakness,'' Schwieren writes. ``And they are willing to vote
against politicians running on platforms of cultural conformity.''


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