"There is speculation Milosevic could be planning a coup to depose the Western-oriented government of Montenegro, the smaller partner in the Yugoslav federation. U.S. forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina are on high alert after a Yugoslav MiG was downed over the country's airspace last week "The cyclone of unrest and instability could yet spin farther afield, analysts say. "Greece -- a member of NATO and the European Union -- is worried. The Muslim minority in northern Greece could use the events to demand greater concessions from the government. A hard-line stance by Greece could bring a harsh reaction from Turkey, a traditional rival and another NATO ally. Said Doran Vienneau, officer for the __Organization for Security and Cooperation__ . ``This situation is a powder keg -- not just for Albania but the entire area.". Refugees Threaten Balkan Stability By BRIAN MURPHY .c The Associated Press KUKES, Albania (AP) -- Fires built by Kosovo refugees dot the soggy fields in a trail of misery that stretches into Albania. It's a suitable analogy for what the latest Balkan blaze could bring to the region: a current of human desperation and political pressures that could drag under neighboring countries and splatter trouble directly into the laps of Western leaders. The gunpoint exodus of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority has shaken the tenuous balance of rivalry and authority at the southern end of the Balkans -- which remarkably stayed calm while the former Yugoslavia violently disintegrated earlier this decade. The strains from the largest mass migration in Europe since World War II are already alarmingly evident. NATO spokesman Jamie Shea estimated ``10 to 20 days'' is all Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic needs to clear all the ethnic Albanians from Kosovo, where they comprised 90 percent of the nearly 2 million people. In the hardscrabble border town of Kukes, destitute and traumatized refugees pour in -- sometimes at the rate of 4,000 an hour. The hospital is so overwhelmed and strapped for supplies that it is forced to remove shrapnel and stitch wounds without anesthesia. The bakery is working around the clock to churn out bread -- the first food most refugees have had for days. Refugees are now fanning out to other points in Europe's most underdeveloped nation, which was just beginning to claw back from total anarchy in 1997 following the collapse of shady investment funds that wiped out many people's life savings. In Macedonia -- the other main route for refugees -- the two main ethnic groups are clearly at odds. The government, dominated by Macedonian Slavs, feels under siege and has said it can accept no more outcasts from Kosovo and that any future arrivals must move on to other countries. But the nation's own ethnic Albanian minority, which make up about a third of the population, could vent their anger against officials. Yugoslavia is also grappling with inner turmoil as it tries to withstand a NATO bombardment. There is speculation Milosevic could be planning a coup to depose the Western-oriented government of Montenegro, the smaller partner in the Yugoslav federation. The cyclone of unrest and instability could yet spin farther afield, analysts say. U.S. forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina are on high alert after a Yugoslav MiG was downed over the country's airspace last week. Two large garrisons of American peacekeepers there -- at Tuzla and Brcko -- lie within short flying time from Yugoslav air bases. Greece -- a member of NATO and the European Union -- is worried large numbers of refugees will eventually be drawn there by its relative prosperity. Also, the Muslim minority in northern Greece could use the events to demand greater concessions from the government. A hard-line stance by Greece could bring a harsh reaction from Turkey, a traditional rival and another NATO ally. ``With Kosovo, the stain is in the pool and the ripples are starting to go out,'' said Terrence Taylor, a regional analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The path of the refugees is a compass to the various troubles in the region. Follow them to Albania to discover a humanitarian emergency of epic proportions as the refugee population swells toward 200,000. ``How can I describe this? Horror, tears, disaster. This is the apocalypse,'' said Bajram Cena, director of the Meriman Japupi Hospital in Kukes, where hundreds of refugees arrive each day suffering from everything from dehydration to gaping wounds from Serb ground or aerial attacks. With no airstrip and accessible only by crumbling mountain roads, the area is a logistical nightmare for relief groups. A makeshift convoy of buses, army vehicles and tractors carry refugees down from the mountains to Tirana and other cities. NATO is considering sending soldiers to help with the aid effort. As the refugees spread out around the country, other concerns are rising: a step backward into chaos and crime. The Albanian president toppled by the 1997 uprising, Sali Berisha, could use the refugee crisis to increase pressure on the government. An open feud for power could scare off foreign investment and reopen feuds in a country with weak central authority and a population well armed with looted weapons. ``This country cannot take care of itself, let alone all these refugees,'' said Doran Vienneau, a field officer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. ``This situation is a powder keg -- not just for Albania but the entire area.'' Macedonia, struggling with the second front of the refugee disaster, is trying to balance between helping the West and avoiding potential domestic unrest. The nation's Security Council said Saturday that Macedonia had reached its limit for refugees and the nation's stability was ``seriously endangered.'' Macedonia had planned to accommodate several thousand refugees. At least 50,000 have been registered and some aid workers place the figure at about 100,000. Many more were reportedly on the way. Interior Minister Pavle Trajanov said the borders were still open, but Macedonia would only accept refugees that can be transferred to neighboring countries and European Union countries. He said women, children, the elderly and the sick would be cared for in Macedonia. But tightening the borders comes with a risk. Relations could sour between the government and the substantial ethnic Albanian population in the enclave of Tetovo, which borders Kosovo. ``It is going to cause economic collapse and political instability,'' said the statement from the Security Council. At the same time, Macedonia is under pressure from the West to keep its commitment to NATO. More than 12,000 NATO soldiers were sent to the country for a possible peacekeeping role in Kosovo before negotiations fell apart. A NATO leader, British Air Commodore David Wilby, placed the regional worries squarely upon Milosevic. ``He has engineered a calculated humanitarian catastrophe to try to destabilize the neighboring countries,'' he told reporters in Brussels. In his own nation, Milosevic is accused of plotting against opponents. Western leaders say signs point to a showdown between Milosevic and the Western-backed leader of the Montenegro republic, President Milo Djukanovic. Montengero has taken in more than 30,000 Kosovo refugees and Djukanovic has quickly tried to fortify his standing with the West. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told Milosevic to keep his ``hands off'' Montenegro. But Milosevic on Wednesday removed a Montenegrin general as head of Yugoslavia's 2nd Army Corps, which is based in the republic, and replaced him with an ally. Some Western officials interpreted this as an indication a coup was imminent. Ousting the elected government could spark battles between Djukanovic backers and those rallying behind Milosevic. It could also up the ante in the U.S.-led military assault.
