On the McLaughlin Report on TV a couple of days ago, reference was made to a Special (Congressional?) Report --being studied and now given emphasis by the GOP-- which expressed alarm that the US would still be vulnerable to nuclear missile attack for another five years, and warned that such an attack was ALMOST LIKELY by 2004 from some "rogue power," esp. North Korea -- the subject of an article in the latest "Time." On the same program, developing the topic while wondering what would happen if the Balkan war escalated into a confrontation with Russia and the Middle East, the military experts on the show doubted whether the US could win a TWO-front war ... NORTH KOREA, DEVELOPING 2 STAGE MISSILE, DEEMED GREATEST THREAT TO U.S. February 3, 1999 By John Omicinski, Gannett News Service WASHINGTON - Famine-wracked North Korea still packs a huge military wallop and poses the biggest immediate threat of war or nuclear attack to U.S. troops and territory, the nation's spy chiefs warned Congress Tuesday. "North Korea remains the country most likely to involve the United States in a large-scale regional war" during the next five years, Defense Intelligence Agency director Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes told the Senate Armed Services Committee. North Korea, Hughes said, poses the single worst threat of large-scale regional conventional war during the next 10 years. Beyond 2010, however, Hughes said other regional powers could threaten war. He didn't name them. Central Intelligence Agency Director George Tenet echoed Hughes' concern about the threat of war from the Hermit Kingdom, a secretive country of 22 million ruled by the mercurial Kim Jong-il. Tenet said North Korea is thought to be developing a two-stage, Taepo Dong-2 missile that can send "significantly larger payloads to mainland Alaska and the Hawaiian Islands and smaller payloads to other parts of the United States." Iran, Tenet and Hughes agreed, was the only other rogue nation capable of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with nuclear capability in the short term. Because North Korea has "very large, heavy, forward-deployed forces," an extensive network of tunnels, as well as chemical and biological weapons, and perhaps nuclear warheads, said Hughes, "war in Korea would be incredibly violent and destructive." North Korea, with the aid of Red Chinese troops, fought United Nations forces to a standstill in the 1950-53 Korean War that took more than 55,000 allied lives and killed more than 1 million South Koreans. Tenet told the senators he could "hardly overstate" his "concern about North Korea," calling it "volatile and unpredictable." The CIA chief said there were "fresh signs of social decay," such as spreading crime, even in the military, that "have increased our concern about stability in North Korea." Tenet predicted that because of its instability and food shortages, the Pyongyang government might engage in "risky brinksmanship." This may occur, he said, as the United States presses for access to the mysterious hole being dug into the side of a mountain at Kumchang-ni, where North Korea may be building a nuclear warhead-making factory away from U.S. satellites' prying eyes. There is no indication, said Tenet, that Kim has "abandoned the goal of ultimately bringing the entire peninsula under his control." The intelligence directors' 1999 threat assessments were much tougher than last year, when neither predicted Pyongyang's test-firing of a three-stage, Taepo Dong-1 missile in 1998. That test missile flew over Japan and scattered debris as far as Alaska, more than 4,000 miles away. U.S. intelligence agencies also failed to forecast India's and Pakistan's surprise nuclear tests in 1998, making them the newest nuclear powers. "North Korea," said Hughes, "presents a challenging dilemma: a 'failing' state with rising internal pressures, diminishing conventional military capability, but posing an increasing regional and global threat ..." North Korea is in four-power talks with China, the United States, and South Korea, but these have made little headway toward an agreement. Itar-Tass, January 29, 1999 S.Korea fears 2000 glitch sets off neighbour's missiles TOKYO, January 28 (Itar-Tass) - South Korea is apprehensive of uncontrollable launches of North Korea's missiles in 2000, the year of a feared computer mega-glitch. Tokyo reports said Seoul has addressed its request to Russia, through its embassy in Moscow, to dispell this dismay, given that Scud-B and Scud-C missiles of the North Korean army are updated versions of Soviet-made Skuds. North Korea also totes more modern missiles that have the reporting name of Rodong in the West. Seoul does not rule out that these missiles are controlled by computers provided to North Korea from Moscow. The millennium bug harboured in the ability of computers to read only two last digits of a year is feared to set off North Korea's missiles and a full-blown armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Representatives of the South Korean Defense Ministry expressed hope for resumption of high-level dialogue between the two Koreas, in which Pyongyang could be asked about the problem and solutions to it sought. Chicago Tribune, Mar 24, 1999 N. KOREA STILL A THREAT, CLINTON SAYS U.S. fears North Korea developing nuclear arms at closed site SEOUL -- President Clinton exhorted North Korea on Saturday to abide by its agreements on nuclear non-proliferation, warning that "further provocations will threaten the progress we have made." Appearing at a news conference with South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, Clinton said that North Korea's recent test-firing of a missile and its work on an underground site suspected of being used to construct nuclear missiles are "cause for deep concern." Kim said that in his talks with Clinton the leaders agreed mutually that they would "not tolerate any possible attempt by North Korea to proliferate nuclear weapons, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction." Kim, who has advocated a "sunshine policy" of engagement toward his communist neighbor, urged North Korea to take steps to "clear the suspicion" surrounding the underground site. The United States has sought to inspect the site out of concern that it is being used to build nuclear missiles. North Korea has demanded $300 million simply for the right to look, a condition that Clinton has called unacceptable. Insisting that any nuclear proliferation by the North would not be tolerated, Kim added that "the policy of engagement is the best policy from a realistic standpoint and this ought to be pursued with consistency." "We must be firm on these issues," he said. Clinton said that it is important "we get access to this questionable site. But it raises a strong suspicion and we need access to it." Clinton warned that if North Korea continues to rebuff U.S. inspection appeals, Congress likely would have "a great reluctance" to continue to fund fuel oil and nuclear reactor programs in the North. "It would be a sad thing indeed if, for no good end over the long run, the North Koreans would make it impossible to go forward," he said. The two presidents spoke at a joint news conference after bilateral talks at South Korea's presidential Blue House. Even before he left Tokyo on Friday, an ominous note was sounded during Clinton's Asia trip when he called reports of a new nuclear weapons program by North Korea "disturbing" and said he was not sure if that country was moving "toward a more hostile posture." Clinton, speaking at a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi before flying here, also said North Korea's demand for payment before the United States could inspect its suspected nuclear site was "completely unacceptable." "We need to continue to work together with our friends in South Korea, hopefully with the support of the good wishes of the Chinese, to try to restrain hostile developments in North Korea," Clinton said. Four years ago, North Korea signed a framework agreement with the United States agreeing to freeze its nuclear weapons program in return for billions of dollars in aid. National Security Council spokesman David Leavy said in an interview Friday: "It's a very serious situation. North Korea and South Korea represent the last dividing line of the Cold War. The United States has 35,000 men and women stationed in South Korea, and recently we have seen a series of provocative moves by North Korea that we must keep in check." During the past week, a State Department delegation led by Charles Kartman, Clinton's special envoy on North Korea, left North Korea after being denied access to what it suspected was a new nuclear site. North Korea denies that the underground site, about 25 miles northeast of Yongbyon, where North Korea conducted its first nuclear weapons program, is a nuclear site. North Korea has announced its intention to sell missiles worldwide to relieve its shattered economy and, according to U.S. government sources, North Korea may be planning to test-fire a second missile capable of striking Japan. [Chicago Tribune correspondent Roger Simon, traveling with the president, contributed to this report.]
