IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE
By Douglas V. Johnson, Stephen C. Pelletiere, Reply by Edward MortimerTo the Editors:
In our book Iraqi Power and U.S. Security in the Middle East we questioned whether Iraq had used chemicals against its Kurdish population, as widely believed. Your reviewer (Edward Mortimer, "Republic of Fear," NYR, September 27) challenged us on this. Since it is a matter of some importance, we would like to offer support for our view. Essentially there are two instances under scrutiny. The first attack allegedly occurred at Halabjah in north-central Iraq. All accounts of this incident agree that the victims' mouths and extremities were blue. This is consonant with the use of a blood agent. Iraq never used blood agents throughout the war; Iran did. The U.S. State Department said at the time of the Hallabjah attack that both Iran and Iraq had used gas in this instance. Hence, we concluded it was the Iranians' gas that killed the Kurds.
The second alleged gas attack by the Iraqis against the Kurds occurred at Amadiyyah (in the far northern region of Iraq) after the war had ended. This one is extremely problematical since no gassing victims were ever produced. The only evidence that gas was used is the eye-witness testimony of the Kurds who fled to Turkey, collected by staffers of the U.S. Senate. We showed this testimony to experts in the military who told us it was worthless. The symptoms described by the Kurds do not conform to any known chemical or combination of chemicals.
Lacking any gassing victims, and given the fact that the testimony does not seem credible we were unwilling to say that in fact the attacks had occurred. At the same time, throughout the study we cited instances of Iraqi-instigated chemical attacks against Iranian military units. There is no doubt that these occurred; indeed the Iraqis have stated on occasion that they feel justified in using chemicals tactically under certain conditions. However, they deny using chemicals as a weapon of mass destruction, that is against civilians. What our study concludes is that those who claim they are doing so need to come up with some more convincing proof.
On an another matter, your reviewer claimed that we did not predict the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. He quotes us (correctly) as saying that (after the war with Iran) "Iraq has neither the will nor the resources to go to war with anybody." However, we qualified that statement, by saying, if we (that is the United States) impose economic sanctions on the Iraqis, it then is likely that they will lash out against our interests in the Gulf. This part of the prediction your reviewer left out, and it's important since, as you know, the U.S. Congress did impose sanctions and almost immediately after the Iraqis invaded Kuwait.
If any of the New York Review of Books readers want to read what we said in our study, they can obtain a free copy by writing to us.
Dr. Stephen C. Pelletiere
Lt. Col. Douglas V. Johnson III
Strategic Studies Institute
US Army War College
Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, 17013–5050
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