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Arab News
SAUDI ARABIA'S FIRST ENGLISH LANGUAGE DAILY







Editorial: German woes
10 January 2003
Published on 10 January 2003

A petard was an explosive device placed by attackers against a castle gate. The
luckless
individuals ordered to do this had to then light a fuse and try and run away. If they 
did
not escape in time, they were blown up along with the gate. Hence the expression
�being hoist on your own petard�.

The Germans are currently experiencing just such a disaster. It was they who insisted
that the Stability and Growth Pact rules, which underpin the European Single currency
penalize anyone who missed strict monetary targets, including a deficit within three
percent of economic output. This year the Germans face a 3.8 percent deficit. Brussels
warns that unless they sort it out by May, they will be fined.

Germany has been and no doubt will be again the economic powerhouse of the EU but,
at the moment, its economy is a mess. Its social welfare benefits have long been every
bit as high as its legendary productivity. When the economy was booming, such
generosity was sustainable. Reunification changed this. Helmut Kohl�s decision to
accept the worthless old East German currency at parity with the mighty deutsche mark
was politically expedient in the short term, but economically disastrous in the long.

Since reunification, almost $650 billion has been pumped into the depressed east of the
country. However, with the exception of 2001, when the economy seemed to recover,
the leaden economic weight of the east plus the German insistence on paying
themselves too much to work, to retire, to be sick or to be unemployed has piled up the
economic troubles.

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder seems to have few answers to the growing problems.
Already highly taxed, with a prospect of yet higher taxes to come, the majority of
Germans are angry. By no means, all the country�s troubles can be laid at the door of
the Schroeder and Kohl governments. The global economic downturn has played its
part. However, in past postwar recessions, German goods have continued to find ready
world markets because of their quality rather than their price. And Germany prospered
from its world trade, even though the perennially strong deutsche mark ought to have
made goods which were already expensive for the high-paid Germans to produce too
expensive for anyone else to buy.

Unfortunately, those magic sums no longer add up. If Schroeder does actually keep the
latest promise he has made � to haul back on government spending � his troubles
are still unlikely to be at an end. With private industry sitting on its check books, 
the
German state and federal governments are the only large source of contracts and
investment money. Sharply reduce that economic activity, as analysts believe is
necessary, cut back on welfare payments and the pain already being felt will be
markedly increased. Germany was the key architect of the euro, which it wanted to be
protected from the indiscipline of weaker euroland economies. How ironic, therefore,
that it itself should be the first member state to fall foul of the tough rules upon 
which it
insisted. More importantly, what does this spectacular failure by Germany mean for the
international credibility of the euro?

http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=21843

Copyright � 2003 ArabNews All Rights Reserved.
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