-Caveat Lector-

OIL SHORTAGE LOOMS
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/allnews/page.cfm?objectid=12547434
&method=full&siteid=50143

Jan 18 2003

By James Mellor

WAR in Iraq will lead to the largest ever shortfall in oil supplies, experts
warned yesterday.

The grim prediction came as world oil prices last night rocketed to a
two-year high.

A crippling strike in Venezuela, a major oil exporter, has already
drained world reserves of crude.

But there are now fears that a military conflict in Iraq would lead to
crippling oil shortages.

Steve Strongin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said world oil markets face
the greatest oil shortfall in history.

He added: "In terms of barrels per day the Venezuela situation is one of
the larger shocks we've ever had.

"Only the Gulf War, the Iran/Iraq war and the Arab-Israeli war in 1973
represented similar ones. A two-month interruption to Iraqi crude would
turn it into the largest ever shortfall."

The situation is already causing headaches at the White House.

Earlier this week, the US admitted oil inventories are down to their
second-lowest levels since records began in 1976.

America's minimum stockpile is 270 million barrels of crude. The
country is only 2.3 million barrels above that level - sufficient to keep
the wheels of industry in the US turning for just four hours.

President Bush has so far refused to release emergency reserves.

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