China has been a major oil importer since 1993; the third-biggest oil consumer in the world, behind the US and Japan. In the 1990s, its oil consumption rose 6 percent while its domestic production decreased 2 percent. In 2001, Chinese imports were one-third (65 million tons) of the total (200 million tons) consumed.
Reserves in northern China are practically extinct. New oil fields in Xinjiang are very hard to exploit. Two-thirds of China's oil imports are from the Middle East: the main suppliers are Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. In 2010, they could be responsible for 80 percent of China's needs. No wonder Beijing is so worried.
Iraq contributes only 0.6 percent of Chinese oil imports - but its strategic importance is increasingly vital. China wants an immediate end to the UN embargo and sanctions. In 1997, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), along with China North Industries Corporation (Norinco), signed an agreement with Iraq for a 22-year-long exploitation of half the Al-Ahdab field. The Chinese were supposed to invest $1.3 billion. In 1998, CNPC kept negotiating for an agreement regarding the Halfayah field. But in the end - because of the sanctions - the Chinese were only able to conduct feasibility studies.
China has been playing an extremely active role behind closed doors in the current negotiations on the text of the new Security Council resolution on Iraq and arms inspections. The dispute only apparently is between a US-led and a French-led text. UN sources confirm the Chinese align with the French position - even though President George W Bush has said that he had a "deal" after he met Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Texas at the weekend. China is positively against an American attack on Iraq: it fears subsequent sky-high oil prices or even the interruption of supplies.
China is also setting up its own strategic oil reserve. Reserves for the moment would only last for a few days. US reserves are good for three months. Until 2010, the Chinese want to be in the same position. The heart of the matter for China is to be less dependent on Middle East oil. Middle East oil travels through the Malacca Straits - controlled de facto by the US. Chinese oil companies have been increasingly active in Kazakhstan. But now, with the American presence in Afghanistan, it's for the Chinese to make the next move: how to combat encirclement by America from the Eastern and Western fronts.
China, Russia and the Iraqi oil game
China stands to gain big-time by invading/reincorporating Taiwan:
Taiwan as trade deficit on Chinese economy:
Taiwan's economy is closely connected to that of the Chinese mainland. With a trade surplus of nearly 20 billion US dollars with the mainland in recent years, experts from Taiwan say the mainland has served as a strong source of momentum to the island's economy.
Recent figures show that the Taiwan region's exports to the mainland reached nearly 24 billion US dollars in the first 9 months of this year, accounting for 25 percent of the island's total exports. This represents a 36-percent rise over the same period in 2001. Its trade surplus with the mainland has directly boosted its economy.
Cross-strait Ties, Still Up and Down in 2002
The specific argument between the two revolves around the steel import protection measures China instituted earlier this year, following the US's decision to protect its ailing domestic steel industry in the face of massive global over-supply.
Taiwan was one of several producers singled out by Beijing for "dumping" - selling cold-rolled steel at or below cost to establish market share, at the expense of local competition.
Taiwan and China set for WTO talks
Last month, the Taiwanese government announced that China had surpassed the United States for the first time as Taiwan's largest foreign market, accounting for 30 percent of all exports. According to Taiwan's Central Bank, Taiwanese businesses have invested $66.8 billion in China.
New charter flights give lift to Taiwan-mainland relations
Taiwan seperation as issue of Chinese national pride:
Until recently, direct links were always tied to Taiwan's unresolved political status. The debate often took the form of a diplomatic food fight, with each side hurling daily invective. Premier Zhu Rongji once warned that the Chinese would "use all their blood" to take back the island.
However, the charged atmosphere suddenly came down a notch three months ago, when China dropped its demand that the flights be called "domestic," a nonstarter for the pro-independence Taiwanese government.
New charter flights give lift to Taiwan-mainland relations
But although China was prepared to enter bilateral talks with the other three states, Taipei had to threaten a formal complaint before China would respond - and then only in writing, and in Chinese rather than the official WTO languages of English and French.
The letter was addressed to the "WTO economics and trade office" of Taipei, ignoring even the compromise it had itself demanded of making Taiwan's official title "The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu".
In China's eyes, after all, Taiwan is a "breakaway province" lurking just across a narrow strait, not an independent country.
This does not please the Taiwanese, according to a report in the United Daily News newspaper.
"We cannot accept any attempt by communist China to downgrade our name," the Taiwanese paper reported Economics Minister Lin Yi-fu as saying.
Taiwan and China set for WTO talks
Opportunistic Chinese invasion of Taiwan during Iraq war already speculated by conservative analysts:
Military analysts say China could be waiting for the United States to commit much of its remaining military forces to an attack against Iraq before launching an invasion against Taiwan.
"Should the Iraqi war turn sour � if, for instance, Saddam pulls his most loyal troops into Iraq's cities to force a drawn-out, street-to-street fight � the U.S. might be forced to pour additional troops into the battle," said Bryan Preston, a writer and television producer, in the Aug. 20 issue of The National Review Online.
"For China, our difficulty would be a golden opportunity to take on Taiwan, provided it could be sure the Bush administration's nuclear threat was a bluff," he said. "What would China do?"
Tom Knowlton, a military analyst writing for Internet-based publication Defense Watch, which is published by Soldiers For The Truth � a group founded by decorated veteran, author and columnist David Hackworth � also says there is at least substantial anecdotal evidence China may be planning such a move � enough that it should give U.S. military planners and the Bush administration pause.
"There are strong indications that China is preparing to capitalize on the growing American military commitments in the Middle East by invading the island nation of Taiwan," writes Knowlton in this week's issue.
Beijing waiting for U.S.-Iraq war?
Bush administration stands to lose big-time when it cannot both invade Iraq and defend Taiwan
Bush pledged to defend Taiwan with US military might:
In a statement which amounted to an open threat of war against China, President George W. Bush told a television interviewer Wednesday morning that he was prepared to order full-scale US military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
This extraordinary language suggests that there would be no limitation on a Bush administration response to the outbreak of war in the strait of Taiwan, including the commitment of ground troops, air and missile strikes against the Chinese mainland, even the use of nuclear weapons.
Bush hints at war with China over Taiwan
Asked in the ABC interview if Washington had an obligation to defend the Taiwanese in the event of attack by China, which considers the island a renegade province, Bush said: "Yes, we do ... and the Chinese must understand that. Yes, I would."
When asked whether the United States would use "the full force of the American military," Bush responded, "Whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."
Bush pledges whatever it takes to defend Taiwan
BusChe(ney) would be unable to pay back both Taiwan's illegal political contributions and the US oil industry (oil production development in Iraq) in such a scenario:
The evidence appears serious enough to warrant a call for congressional investigation of ties between the fund and the Bush administration.
The scandal began in March when Taipei police launched a ham-handed raid on the office of a weekly magazine to thwart news about the discovery of a covert $100 million fund of the government's shadowy National Security Bureau (NSB). From 1988 to 2000, President Lee Teng-hui had taken personal control of the NSB's money. The secret documents, say the Chinese press, outline Lee's efforts to procure influence abroad with the fund -- including in the United States.
Not surprisingly, the magazine office raid only succeeded in accelerating public disclosures of previously secret dealings of the NSB, first in the Asian press and then gradually in American media. But unlike the press here, the Chinese media have been explicit in suggesting a linkage between the NSB's hidden funds controlled by Lee and the current Bush administration.
Taiwangate - Time for Congress to Probe Bush-Taiwan Ties
Russia has motivation/ability for providing assistance to Chinese anti-war manueverings
Russian motivation for anti-war effort:
Russia and China want to join forces to protect their substantial oil interests in Iraq if a U.S.-led invasion topples Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, a top Russian industry official said on Wednesday.
The official, who accompanied President Vladimir Putin this week on his trip to Beijing, said the two states agreed that closer cooperation was needed to guarantee their interests under any new Iraqi government.
"Obviously, no agreement has been signed on the issue, but there were a number of discussions, including, as far as I know, between the leaders of the two states," the source said.
Russia, China share concern over Iraq oil deals
Rumor of Russian intervention in US invasion of Iraq:
One hour ago, all programming was interrupted for the announcement that in the event of war in the Middle East, the Russian Federation will go to war on the side of Iraq. A general mobilization is in progress, and a recall of all non-essential personnel in potentially hostile nations is underway.
The announcement stated, plainly, that this is " move, on the part of the Russian Government to block the plans for an aggressive war in the Middle East, or elsewhere. It is the hopes of the Russian Government that the threat of a general war, against an equal, and equally armed opponent, will forestall what is seen by the majority of the civilized world as a blatant act of aggression on the part of the United States and on the behalf of Israel".
The announcement was made by Defense Minister Ivanov. A statement by President V.V. Putin is expected within a few hours.
BREAKING: Russia to back Iraq?
China alone, I believe, could end this entire imperialistic massacre/pillage by threatening one of their own, to take Taiwan should the Bushies invade Iraq. With the current oil agreements between Saddam and China, Iraq is something of a Chinese asset (as well as a Russian, French, etc. asset). Taiwan is something of an asset of US interests, especially within the Bush administration. China has more to gain in conquering/assimilating Taiwan than in being admitted to any global trade organizations, but it would never even need come to an invasion. With the addition of Russian or even French or German backing, not to mention North Korea's nuclear posturing chiming in, Bush/Blair would stand yet a slighter chance politically or even militarily against such a threat. This war could be over before it ever starts, if Saddam's many oil allies would stand up for their investments against this criminal, unilateral menace.
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