-Caveat Lector-

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-
bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2003/02/21/state0339EST0013.DTL


Aerial photographs show number of protesters below estimates

Friday, February 21, 2003
(02-21) 00:39 PST   SAN FRANCISCO (AP) --
An aerial survey of Sunday's anti-war protest in San Francisco showed the number of
attendees was around 65,000 people -- not the 150,000 to 200,000 estimated by
organizers and police.

The survey, commissioned by the San Francisco Chronicle and SFGate.com, used a
series of high-resolution aerial photos. They showed that during the protest's peak, at
about 1:45 p.m. Sunday, there were approximately 65,000 people in attendance.
Although the number cannot account for protesters who left before that time or those
who showed up later, experts say such a survey is more accurate than visual scan
methods used by police and organizers.

"After hearing concerns from our readers about our accuracy in reporting crowd size
in demonstrations, we were determined to come up with a better method to calculate
the number of people who turn out for such events," said Chronicle Executive Editor
Phil Bronstein.

When told of The Chronicle's numbers, police and organizers stood by their
estimates.

"Come on, that's ridiculous," said Bill Hackwell, spokesman for International
ANSWER, one of the groups that organized Sunday's protest.

Greg Suhr, the San Francisco deputy police chief who calculated the police figure,
agreed.

"I can tell you for a fact that's an enormously low number," he said, adding that the
stands alone in San Francisco's Pacific Bell Park hold 40,000 people.

"The crowd at Pac Bell would pale in comparison to the crowd on Sunday," Suhr
said.

Police estimates were based on the 43,000 people that Civic Center Plaza is
estimated to hold and previous estimates of crowd sizes on Market Street. The
roadway and sidewalk had about 100,000 people on them, Suhr said.

A media scholar said such doubts are to be expected.

"The number of people (in a crowd) is a mythical number, and now you're going to
turn it into a fact, and that won't be welcomed," said Alex S. Jones, director of
Harvard University's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public
Policy. "There's an old saying in journalism: People only see what they believe. This
is an emotional issue, not a factual issue, as far as most people are concerned."

To get the 65,000 estimate, the photographs taken from 2,000 feet were overlaid
with a grid. Each grid was evaluated and assigned a density of people from 10 to 100
percent full. Most were judged at 25 percent to 50 percent full.

This was the first time Air Flight Service, which has 20 years experience in taking
photographs for topographical maps for government agencies and private
companies, has used its equipment for crowd estimation.

Peace rally organizers based their number on comparisons to a Jan. 18 rally that
they said drew 150,000 to 200,000. Sunday's protest was similar is size, Hackwell
said.

Police originally estimated there were 50,000 people at that Jan. 18 march, but
revised that figure later based on how many people could fit into Civic Center Plaza,
the crowd that spilled out onto the side streets and the movement of the crowd up
Market Street, police spokesman Neville Gittens said.

In other cities around the world on Saturday crowd estimates were based on the
average number of people in one area expanded to cover the whole route.

In London, police used helicopters to estimate crowds -- 750,000 marchers in the
streets and more than 1 million at Hyde Park. Italy's national police force -- the
Carabinieri -- estimated 700,000 people protested, based on the capacity of the
piazzas where the demonstrations happened and counting four people per square
meter during the march, according to an e-mail from a police spokesman.

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