-Caveat Lector-

Japanese Bonds Seen Falling on Weak Demand for 10-Year Sale
Bloomberg News
Apr 17 1999 8:21PM ET
(Changes dateline, updates day references throughout.)

Tokyo, April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese government bonds are likely to fall
this week as a sale of 10-year bonds may fail to lure investors amid concern
the government will have to increase spending to revive the economy.

The Ministry of Finance will sell 1.4 trillion yen ($11.8 billion) in 10-year
bonds, which could provide a 1.5 percent or 1.6 percent coupon at Wednesday's
monthly auction, the lowest since November.

``The big question is whether investors will buy such a coupon,'' said
Akinori Ito, chief portfolio manager at Nikko International Capital
Management Co., which oversees 2.5 trillion yen ($21.1 billion) in assets.
``We won't.''

In the week just ended, the benchmark No. 211, 10-year bond rose 0.044, or 22
yen per 50,000 yen bond, pushing the yield down 0.5 basis point to 1.605
percent. Bond futures for June delivery rose 0.30 to 133.80.

Low coupons are less attractive to Japanese bond investors because under the
nation's accounting standards, coupon payments are classified as riskless
investment and not subject to capital gains tax. Many traders said that a
coupon under 1.70 percent will not be attractive.

Additional Spending

Investors expect that the government will have to spend more in the latter
half of this year to revive the world's second-largest economy, which the
government has said contracted 2.2 percent for the year ended March 31.

That has raised concern the government may have to sell more debt than
already planned. It plans to sell a record 71.3 trillion yen in bonds in the
year started April 1, a 23 percent increase from the previous year.

The prospect of such debt sales helped to push up the yield on the 10-year
bond to its high of 2.505 percent on Feb. 3. The yield fell after the Bank of
Japan on Feb. 12 cut its target rate for overnight lending between banks.

Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said last Friday there is a need to consider
tax cuts to promote investment and effective use of assets.

``We didn't expect the tax cut talk,'' said Koji Hozumi, a trader at New
Japan Securities Co. ``That could help stocks'' and lead to more debt sales,
he said.

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