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Crisis plans on paper, but evacuation would be challenge
Inviting targets also choke points for Bay Area traffic
Henry K. Lee, Chronicle Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 19, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/03/19/MN35334.DTL
The specter of terrorism striking the Bay Area, while remote, has
nevertheless prompted police and transportation officials to consider how
they would evacuate thousands of people in the event of a large-scale
attack.
With the United States girding for a war with Iraq, officials say a mass
evacuation prompted by a chemical, biological or radiological attack is
something for which they have laid plans -- although they concede the
prospect of carrying them out is a daunting one.
"We are better prepared, but as I emphasize to my staff in our training,
let's not get excited and overreact," said Alameda County Sheriff Charles
Plummer, Northern California's liaison to state emergency officials.
"We've done everything we can, and we are as prepared as we can be
under the circumstances, not knowing what's coming," Plummer said.
The greatest potential complication, officials agree, is the chance for
gridlock in an area where traffic must be funneled across bridges -- which
could themselves be an inviting target for terrorists.
Some chaos might result from any evacuations, officials concede.
"It could come to that," California Highway Patrol Sgt. Wayne Ziese
acknowledged Tuesday, "but we want to remind the folks to stay calm and
not to panic."
Given the potential for epic gridlock, the first question emergency officials
would have to ask during any attack is whether an evacuation could make
things worse, experts say. Telling people to "shelter in place," or stay
where they are, might be more prudent in the event of, say, a chemical
attack.
"Obviously, you have to track the plume, look at the prevailing weather
conditions and make a determination as to which way it's going," said
Alameda County Sheriff's Capt. James Williams.
If local officials or the state Office of Emergency Services did decide to
take the drastic step of evacuating an area, BART would play a key role.
That's what happened after the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, when
thousands of stranded commuters left San Francisco on trains after a
section of the Bay Bridge collapsed.
"I'd bet my job on it," BART spokesman Ron Rodriguez said Tuesday of the
system's readiness to serve, "assuming we're not the target, and they
haven't blown us up or something."
If BART itself was targeted, the system could still conceivably be used,
assuming the problem was confined to one station. But officials are
worried about the "piston effect" in any gas attack, in which lethal vapor
could be carried throughout the system by trains whooshing from one
station to another, said BART Police Cmdr. Clark Lynch.
"It depends on the scenario," BART Police Chief Gary Gee said, when asked
whether the system could be relied upon to get people away from a "hot
zone."
Bay Area bridges, so long as they are not a target, would also be natural
exit routes -- with obvious bottleneck problems as well.
The CHP said it had plans to turn bridges and other major roads into one-
way exit routes and waive tolls, or allow freeway shoulders to be used as
additional lanes.
"We're not worried about somebody paying a couple bucks for the toll if
we're in a life-and-death situation," Chase said.
Golden Gate Bridge spokeswoman Mary Currie declined to discuss specific
plans but said contingencies were in place. "The bridge will be open as
long as the bridge is here," she said.
The CHP and state Department of Transportation would also use freeway
signs and radio broadcasts to try to direct motorists stuck on clogged
freeways to alternate routes. Some cities might change traffic signals --
allowing lights to stay green longer, for example -- to ease the flow of cars,
said Cyrus Minoofar, a senior transportation engineer at the Alameda
County Congestion Management Agency.
For example, should Interstate 80 or the Nimitz Freeway be unusable in the
East Bay, the county agency could contact traffic engineers from Oakland
to Pinole to change signals to keep traffic moving on San Pablo Avenue, a
key alternate route, Minoofar said.
In San Francisco, while no such system is yet in place, more emphasis
would be placed on getting busloads of people out quickly, said Cheryl Liu,
a project manager for the city's Department of Parking and Traffic.
Despite all the planning involved, there is no real way to gauge whether
any evacuation scheme will work, experts say.
"Sadly, you don't know if it's going to work until a catastrophe happens,"
said Michael Nacht, dean of the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC
Berkeley.
Nacht said one challenge was deciding how much information to release
about security plans without giving away too much to would-be attackers.
Admissions of any weaknesses, Nacht said, would risk "tipping off people
who want to do us harm."
E-mail Henry K. Lee at [EMAIL PROTECTED]
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
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