======
This is from the resident alternative economist
at EnergyResources.
During Gulf War 1 (the first cheap oil crusade)
it was a matter of virile
pride to bomb bridges, water treatment works,
electric power plants, even
mosques, churches and hospitals "by accident" in
order to "degrade the
enemy's capacities"
That is - the enemy Saddam was from the start to
be left in power, but
'contained', and encouraged to pump oil on the
basis of food-for-oil deals
given nice UN cover and authority: You pump oil
and about 50% of your
population will have enough to eat, the rest can
starve
World oil-supply balances back in 1991had no
vital need for Iraqi oil,
indeed the rotten cherry of the collapsing Sov
Union promised huge pickings
of oil and gas for the GloMarket World, so the
slow but constant
degradation of total Iraqi oil production
capacities, that only ceased
around 1996-8, was easy to tolerate and
contemplate with satisfaction.
At least 500 000 Iraqis died as a result of the
"containment" sanctions,
preventing dual-use things like antibiotics from
being imported to Iraq
(antibiotics could be used to treat soldiers
injured by chem or bio
weapons, after all), along with medical equipment
that might be dual used
for, who knows?, supplying calculators for
antiaircraft gunsights, or
treating soldiers of antiaircraft batteries
injured by smart weapons rained
in on them.
This time around there is precious little or no
slack in world oil
supplies, no second Sov Union is going to implode
and generate oil and gas
prospects in a swath of countries whose names end
in -stan (from
pipelinistan to gazistan and back again, without
too much oil being found
!). China irrevocably ceased to be
self-sufficient in oil during the 1990s,
Indian imports reached an upward slope of around
4%-6% growth each year,
driven by racing industrial expansion.
So Iraq has to be occupied and the trick is to
bomb it into submission
without doing expensive damage to civil
infrastructures. The Coalition of
the Willing (US, UK, Australians and a few other
oil importers) every day
states that "securing the oilfields" is a vital
war aim.
Opposition to war at the level of public opinion
in the so-called Great
Democracies still runs high, but Great Statesmen
like Bush and Blair can
easily ignore that kind of flimflam, anyway "they
wouldnt be able to
protest like that in Baghdad" as somebody on the
BBC tells domestic radio
listeners every day, while forgetting to talk
about cluster bomb raids,
which are only 'divulged' on exotic radio
stations like� Deutsche Welle,
Radio France Internationale, Radio Moscow, and
Radio India (and even Radio
Ankara-Turkey !).
The real opposition is brewing closest to where
collapsing oil prices
really hurt - in Moscow. Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov has a nightly slot
(around 20:15 GMT) where he calls this war
"unprovoked aggression against a
sovereign country", not supported by any explicit
UN Security Council
resolution, "in contravention of international
law", and "a big political
mistake"
Both Putin and Ivanov have called for this war to
be immediately stopped.
China, France and Germany have also called for an
immediate cessation of
hostilities. The BBC, for domestic listeners,
lets us know this is just
anti-Western hysteria, China is occupying Tibet
illegally (so why cant we
occupy I-raq for cheap oil ?), the French have
delusions of grandeur or are
jealous (or something), and the Germans and
Russian are dangerous maniacs.
There is a real race against time for the
Coalition of the Willing (an
"unwilling coalition" is an interesting idea -
maybe countries that have
already been therapeutically bombed into the
GloMarket world and "coalise"
but dont know what they are doing ?). The Willing
have to get to, and take
Baghdad without too many collateral dead being
flashed on CNN, and they
have to keep the lights on in Baghdad (for the TV
crews if nothing else).
Likely those grunts have instructions to also not
take out the mobile
telephone relay towers, and to leave a few office
buildings standing to
install Military Governor Tommy Franks, who as
Donald Rumsfeld tells us
will be there to feed and help (surviving) Iraqis.
Any uptick in oil prices will be very bad news -
afer all, this IS a cheap
oil crusade. Two weeks ago the news that Nigerian
oil production is down
about 13% on normal levels, due to strikes and
civil unrest, would have
immediately - immediately - caused oil prices to
jump at least $1-a-barrel.
Today, this news is "special interest only".
That is oil market traders have a Plunge
Assurance Team (like equity
markets have a not-too-effective Plunge
Protection Team) in their midst.
Oil prices have to be talked down, it is vital
for pushing equity prices
higher and justifying the war. This is not music
to Russian ears, and
despite being an imploded empire Russia is still
armed to the teeth. China
also is armed to the teeth, and knows well that
North Korea is "next on the
hit list" of the Evil Empire, a kind of
Caligula-and-Mickey-Mouse affair
that can only terminate in nuclear war.
A McKillop
http://home.earthlink.net/~annallen0416/daleallenpfeiffer.html
U.S. National forest protections at risk! Send your objections by April 6:
http://www.care2.com/go/z/4835
====
Om
K
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