-Caveat Lector-
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
The Point of No Return
Analysis:Iraq war matter of life and death
By DALAL SAOUD
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
BEIRUT, Lebanon, March 29 (UPI) -- The coalition forces and Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein have reached the point of no return and their only
option now is to pursue the war to the bitter end.
Hopes of a swift victory in Iraq where Saddam would be quickly
defeated and coalition forces greeted with rice and flowers rapidly
dissipated. Surprisingly, Iraqis showed tough resistance from the very
first day of the war. Even the most optimistic view from the Arab side
expected no such resistance from Iraqis until the coalition forces neared
Baghdad.
"Now, there will be no retreat from either side," commented a
well-informed Palestinian official in Beirut to United Press International.
"It's a life or death matter. No only for Saddam, but for Bush too."
The official, who asked not to be identified, said the United States
was expecting "a clean war." According to the Palestinian source, the
Americans even informed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that the war to
remove Saddam would take only 72 hours.
Mubarak therefore supported the war, said the source. He even blamed
the Iraqi leadership for not cooperating enough with the U.N., thus opening
the door to the allied invasion.
Mubarak miscalculated, said the Palestinian, as did the Jordanians,
whom he accuses of being "the source of information" guiding the U.S. to
target "special positions" in Baghdad, a reference to the initial strike on
Baghdad which was meant to get Saddam and other top Iraqi leaders.
"Jordanians are worried that if the war lasts a long time and Saddam
remains, he can incite problems in Jordan where authorities are barely able
to control the people's frustration there," said the Palestinian militant.
But Iraqi resistance to the allied assault was not the only surprise.
In their pre-war planning, the U.S. seems to have trusted and relied
on information provided by the Iraqi opposition as well as some Arab
intelligence services.
"I was surprised that the Americans really believed and trusted the
Iraqi opposition which has no proper foothold inside Iraq," the Palestinian
official said. "They even failed to take into account how the Shiites in
southern Iraq would react."
He specifically referred to a series of Fatwahs (religious edicts) and
appeals by top Shiite Ulemas (religious leaders) in the holy cities of
Najaf and Karbala who asked the population not to cooperate with U.S.
forces.
Such appeals, which have stopped short of calling for Jihad (armed
struggle) against the coalition forces, were issued months before the war
started.
"The big question is why the Iraqi Shiites did not turn against Saddam
once the U.S.-British forces started their attack? It's mainly due to their
bitter experience in 1991 when the U.S.-led coalition let them down," the
official said.
"It is not only the Ulemas' appeals, but also fear of revenge from
Saddam."
Moreover, he said, the Iraqi Shiite opposition groups realized after
the U.S.-sponsored conferences in London and Irbil that they would play no
major role in forming a new post-Saddam government. Instead, they feared,
the country could well be under U.S. military rule for a year or more.
"Accordingly, they have decided not to take part in the battle," said
the Palestinian. They will simply await Saddam's overthrow, he said.
High casualties and material damage inflicted by U.S.-British
bombardment in Shiite-dominated areas of Basra, Najaf and Karbala could
instead come back to bite the coalition.
"Iraqis are now watching how the U.S. and British armies are killing
their sons in Baghdad and southern Iraq," the official said.
"They forgot for the time being about Saddam's ruthless regime and
decided to face the occupying forces. Their national sentiments simply took
over."
Even an Iraqi opponent in Beirut, who has long-awaited Saddam's ouster
with the help of the United States, seems to have shifted his stance.
Outraged by the killings in Karbala, he said: "We will not forget or
forgive them such killings."
On the other hand, Saddam seemed to have prepared well for battle. For
two years, he was expecting the U.S. to launch the war. He succeeded in
convincing his people that their long suffering by the U.N.-imposed embargo
came from Washington itself.
Contrary to his foolish Kuwait adventure in 1991 that could not be
justified even by his own people, this time Saddam succeeded in portraying
the battle to be against Iraq and its natural resources --- not his regime.
With millions of Iraqis carrying weapons and hatred growing apparently
not against Saddam but the coalition, the U.S. and British forces could
reach Baghdad or even enter it, but they would find it hard to control
Iraq.
In addition to fears of "the terrible possibility of chaos" and street
fighting, they would find themselves trapped between doubtful Kurds, angry
Shiites, Sunnis and other minorities.
"If Baghdad falls to the U.S. and British forces, these forces would
quickly withdraw as they won't be able to face a gang war," the official
said.
But he noted that the battle to control Baghdad was meant "to impose
the new world order under which no one would object U.S. wishes."
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