-Caveat Lector-

Before this war started we were assured that coalition troops would be met
by the Iraqui population with "candy and flowers"...

Instead, we've seen the coalition troops come up against stiff fighting, by
both Iraqui military and "paramilitary" forces, and also a goodly number of
the Iraqui citizenry...

The spin that the administration has put on this lack of "candy and flowers"
greeting is that the Iraqui populace is being 'forced' to fight against the
coalition troops by Saddam's troops who, we are repeatedly told, hold the
families of these reluctant fighters 'hostage'...

Now it would seem to me that this argument only holds up so far...it could
perhaps explain a small amount of incidents, but makes no sense when
examined closely when it is used to explain why the MAJORITY of the TOTAL
population is fighting against the coalition...

Namely, just HOW MANY of your loyal, trained, and
committed-to-the-point-of-fanaticism troops do you divert from the primary
task of fighting the invader to instead hold the majority of the populace
hostage, to force a fraction of the populace -- untrained, and ostensibly
enemies of your regime -- to fight for your side?

In other words, say that a city has a population of 20,000; we are told that
the majority of people who live in this city are against Saddam Hussein --
let's say the anti-Saddam number is around 16,000.  Now of that number, the
majority are women, children, and those too elderly or infirm to fight...let
s say the number of noncombantants is around 10,000.  That leaves 6,000 men
who are supposedly fighting against the coalition under duress -- 6000
supposed enemies of Saddam's state who have been given guns by those who we
are told are their enemies...

Just how many of Saddam's loyal and highly-trained troops would be needed to
watch 10,000 hostages?  If we say that 1 soldier is assigned to watch every
5 people, that would mean that it would take 2000 soldiers for the task;
would it be worth it to trade 2000 highly-trained and loyal soldiers for the
half-hearted services of 6000 untrained men who are supposedly committed to
the overthrow of the current regime?  Would you trust giving a gun to
someone who is supposedly committed not only to your overthrow, but to your
death?  How many of your highly-trained and loyal troops would you have to
divert from the primary task of fighting to policing these
enemies-of-the-state that you have just given guns to?

And this example is just one town/city -- multiply the numbers by every
other town/city encountered...

Can you imagine the same line of spin used during WWII?  That we'd have been
told that the reason Allied troops encounted stiff fighting on the beaches
of Normandy was because the Nazis were holding the majority of the French
population hostage, thereby forcing French men to fight for the Nazis?

Why don't we hear about any Iraqui 'resistance movement'?  If there are so
many Iraquis who supposedly would welcome the demise of Saddam, how come we
aren't hearing anything about them?  How come we're not hearing about any
acts of sabotage against Saddam and his troops carried out by all these
Iraquis who supposedly hate him?

This "Iraquis are being forced to fight" spin only makes sense in a limited
way -- when one is perhaps describing an out-of-the-way hamlet with a
populace of a few hundred or so; it makes no sense when one considers that
the administration is using this story to explain why cities with
populations in the tens of thousands are fighting against the coalition...it
would just take too many of the trained and loyal troops to 'hold the
population hostage' to make such a tactic useful....


June


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