-Caveat Lector-

FINANCIAL TIMES
Baghdad's defences belie death toll fears
By Paul Eedle in Baghdad
Published: April 1 2003 17:28 |
Last Updated: April 1 2003 17:28

The defences of Baghdad do not look much: sandbagged emplacements outside
government offices, trenches in parks and palm groves, ditches of blazing
oil belching out smoke intended to interfere with the US and British
laser-guided bombs. Six-lane motorways ideal for fast-moving armour snake
right into the city.

But if Iraqis fight as hard in Baghdad as they have fought in much smaller
towns in the south such as Umm Qasr and Nasiriya, the Americans and British
risk causing large civilian casualties and taking heavy losses themselves
if and when they attack the capital.

The city of 5m is spread across an area of some 15 miles square, either
side of the snaking Tigris river. It takes half an hour to drive from a
suburb on the outskirts to the centre. Street after street of single and
two-storey dun-coloured houses with walled gardens provide ideal cover for
irregular forces to harass attacking armour.

Yet every time a young man in a leather jacket slips out of a doorway to
fire a rocket-propelled grenade at the soft spot of a passing Abrams tank,
the invaders would risk killing civilians if they shoot back.

The irregulars are already in place. At street corners, outside empty
shops, in slit trenches and sandbagged positions by the side of the road,
knots of men in a mixture of different uniforms and civilian clothes and
armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles wait for the attack. Local people say
the ruling Ba'ath party, which has branches in every neighbourhood, has
promised arms and ammunition to anyone willing to fight.

Regular forces are also prominent, most obviously on guard outside
government compounds. No armour or artillery is on view, but could easily
be out of sight behind the walls of the state complexes, or could be pulled
into the city from positions in the countryside before the allied forces
arrive.

Baghdad is now so heavily militarised that invading forces will find it
difficult to distinguish the civilian from the military, although there are
many obvious government sites separate from the main residential areas.

On the west bank of the Tigris, opposite the old centre, an area two miles
long and two miles wide is almost entirely walled off as government
compounds. Those include a presidential compound where missiles have
already battered a palace with a turquoise dome; a ziggaurat-shaped office
block and several nondescript buildings overlooking the river; the
windowless rectangle of the Council of Ministers building; a ministry's
modernistic tower block with a floodlit statue of Mr Hussein firing a
hunting rifle. Any or all of these complexes may have bunkers and tunnels
underneath.

In the middle of the area, the Rasheed Hotel (motto: "More Than A Hotel")
has its own helicopter landing pad with lights and a control tower.

However, residents say Mr Hussein commanded the 1991 Gulf War from a
nondescript villa in one of the inner suburbs. This time it also has to be
imagined that the Iraqi military and security forces, with months to
prepare, have long since dispersed their command centres and arsenals
throughout Baghdad.

It is possible that the attacking forces will avoid a full-frontal assault
and concentrate on hit-and-run raids against senior figures, as the British
are reported to be doing in the southern city of Basra. However, it will be
almost impossible to fight any kind of action in Baghdad without putting
civilians in the line of fire, and without exposing the invading troops to
guerrilla attack.

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