OPLAN 5030 -
Too Little too late
Don Granberry, July 15, 2003
A letter to the Korea WebWeekly
It is entirely too little too late. The Bush Administration has misread Kim Jong-il almost completely--I think. If they do understand what he is up to, they show no sign of it in public. Even so, in light of recent developments, Kim Jong-il must make his move in the next few weeks or he will be at an extreme disadvantage. President Roh has made the best of a bad situation, unfortunately, his thinking has been as short-ranged as Kim Jong-il's.
I have tried very hard to make this clear and failed, but I will relate it to you in hopes that you will relay it to others who might be able to influence the coming turn of events.
The United States cannot and will not tolerate a nuclear armed DPRK. It's just that simple. The US will NOT tolerate it. If anyone thinks that the US will tolerate a unified Korea that is also a nuclear power, but is being ruled by the Kim Dynasty, either publicly or behind the scenes, they are making a very poor assessment of the situation. The United States will NOT tolerate a nuclear armed DPRK. Do try to understand this. This sentiment runs across the entire political spectrum in the United States.
Kim Jong-il stands a very good chance of achieving his goals, if he is about to do what I think he is. He cannot win a war with the United States. He knows that. His goal then, is to drive a wedge between the US and its Asian allies. He cannot separate the United States and Japan via political means the way he as the US and the ROK. Force is required for that job and with nuclear warheads at his disposal, he very clearly has the means. If he can achieve this, he can put Hu Jintao in a position of having no choice but to support Pyongyang against the US. This will result in an immediate victory over the United States without having to continue the war with the United States.
How can he do this? Simple. He tests a nuclear warhead somewhere in the Sea of Japan and then announces that he has a weapon of the same exact type as the one just tested somewhere in Japan. Finding a concealed nuclear weapon is no mean feat. The Japanese would not cooperate with the US in a conflict with the DPRK until the warhead was found--and may not ever cooperate in such a conflict at all in the future. The Japanese are very much inclined to settle things through negotiation as we all know very well. Despite the outrageous claims being made by KCNA, the Japanese are about as likely to start a war as my three year old grandson. They are going to be even less inclined to fight if they are confronted with the possibility of being nuked again.
This would buy Kim the time and leverage he needs to negotiate the unification treaty he wants with President Roh. It also gives him enormous leverage over the Japanese and he would likely get the Reparations Settlement he wants from the Japanese. The US would have no choice but to sit on its hands throughout this entire ordeal.
Here is the long range problem and it is inescapable. Sooner or later, the United States would attack Korea anyway. This time though, the South would be as much the enemy as the North has been. This war will NOT be a ground war. The United States will NOT worry about civilian casualties in Korea the way it did in Iraq. The situation in Korea is different in several key respects, as I think you already know. The cost of preserving civilian lives in this war would be entirely unsupportable for the US. My guess is that we would simply nuke Korea flat and be done with it. At best, assuming Kim did nothing too terribly provocative after unification, Korea will survive another twenty years after a forced reunification. I don't think Kim is bright enough to realize that the greater his successes against us, the more horrifying the eventual payback will be. I don't think he would sit on his hands after a forced Unification. I think he would do something to trigger a response from the United States and that response would be sudden, swift and completely fatal.
So what is the cure to the immediate problem? There are no good ones. My guess is that the Bush Administration is about to conclude that the ouster of the Kim Dynasty is now necessary, if it has not already reached such a conclusion, and will proceed with that goal in mind. This is why I suggested that Kim must move quickly if he is going to save himself and his country.
A dramatic diplomatic turn on Pyongyang's part in the next couple of weeks could save the day. Barring that, the destruction of the DPRK, or the whole of Korea becomes immanent. Beijing could have in the past and could at any time put a stop to this entire thing, but I do not anticipate that they will act. I'm sure that Hu Jintao regards the Kim Dynasty as a thorn in his foot and would be happy to help the US deal with him, but the older heads in China are licking their chops, waiting for Kim Jong-il to humiliate the United States. He might actually succeed. However, I remind you that the price will be horrific for all concerned.
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