-Caveat Lector- ---- Begin Forwarded Message Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1998 18:52:01 -0500 From: Ed Yardeni <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: New On Dr. Ed's Econet To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] COMMENT: Inflation rates are moving very close to zero around the world. We are literally on the edge of deflation. Expect even more signs of deflation in 1999, despite further central bank easing and lower government bond yields. I still believe we are heading into a global bear market for stocks, which already started in 1997 for Asia and Latin America, and in 1998 for Europe and some sectors of the US stock market. The global rally since mid-Oct pushed US stocks to a possible double-top. The advance has been very narrow both among NYSE stocks and global stock markets, which have not recovered to their previous record highs. (See GLOBAL MARKETS BRIEFING.) Y2K COMMENT: I've spent the past 4 weeks studying the Y2K disclosure statements of the S&P 500 corporations in their third quarter SEC filings. I didn't get a warm, fuzzy feeling. I would really like to lower my subjective probability of a global Y2K recession, which remains at 70%. But, I found no reason to do so in what I read. America's largest corporations have had to increase their total Y2K budgets by 26%, on average since the end of last year. They've spent only 42% of their latest estimated budgets, which are likely to continue to rise through 1999. Of the 11 S&P industry groups, utilities were dead last with a spending-to-budget ratio of 31%! (See the latest four issues of THE Y2K REPORTER.) STOCK VALUATION: In addition to tracking the "Greenspan Model" daily for you on my home page, I am now monitoring earnings expectations and stock valuation for Canada, the UK, Germany, France, and Japan every month in GLOBAL VALUATION MODELS. IMPEACHMENT NEWS: An informed source in the White House (not an intern) expects that Bill will agree to resign, but only if Hillary replaces him in the Oval Office. She will then pardon her husband before filing for a divorce. You heard it here first. Maybe I scooped the Drudge Report. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year, Dr Ed ******************** Please forward as appropriate. To unsubscribe, reply with REMOVE in the subject field or top of text. ******************** Home: http://www.yardeni.com Weekly Audio Forum: http://www.yardeni.com/waf.html Global Economic Analysis: http://www.yardeni.com/weain.html Global Economic Briefing: http://www.yardeni.com/webin.html Ecofax: http://www.yardeni.com/faxit.html Global Portfolio Strategy: http://www.yardeni.com/weain.html Earnings Forecast: http://www.yardeni.com/public/ee.pdf Global Markets Briefing: http://www.yardeni.com/subscriber/gmb981218.pdf Flight-To-Quality: http://www.yardeni.com/public/flqual_c.pdf US Stock Valuation Model: http://www.yardeni.com/finmkts.html#C7 Global Stock Valuation Models: http://www.yardeni.com/public/stvalgl.pdf Y2K Home: http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html Y2K Reporter: http://www.yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html Y2K Netbook: http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html Y2K News Fax: http://www.yardeni.com/y2knews.html Y2K Action Day: http://www.y2kactionday.com Y2K Corporate Disclosure: http://www.progsys.com/yardeni/y2kfind.asp ******************** -------------------------------------------------------- For discussion of the spreading world recession and its effect on stock markets, subscribe to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Send blank message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------------------------------------- DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
