-Caveat Lector-
December 20, 1998
American Bombs Make Iraq Stronger
By RONALD STEEL
W ASHINGTON -- President Clinton's decision to bomb Iraq, although
understandable as an expression of exasperation with Saddam
Hussein's deceptions, is likely to cause more problems than it
solves.
In effect it solves nothing. The Clinton Administration did not
claim that the bombing would remove Mr. Hussein from power, or even
that it would seriously reduce his ability to produce chemical or
biological weapons. Nor does anyone suggest that this attack will
induce him to comply with future demands of United Nations weapons
inspectors.
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We'll pay a price for defying the Security Council.
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So it would seem the attack was intended to do little more than
demonstrate that the patience of the United States Government had
been worn out and that its frustration demanded a response.
A military operation inspired by such emotion and seeking such
modest objectives can be justified only if the cost is very low.
But that is far from the case here. Indeed, the political fallout
is likely to be more beneficial to Saddam Hussein than to the
United States.
The bombing means the end of the United Nations weapons inspection
program, called Unscom. For all the roadblocks the Iraqis put in
its way, the program had considerable success over its seven years.
Indeed, one reason President Clinton gave for calling off last
month's scheduled air strikes was that the action would have meant
the end of Unscom. "We would then have no oversight, no insight, no
involvement in what is going on in Iraq," he said at the time. Now,
apparently, that doesn't matter.
With the loss of the inspections, the United States will be locked
into a huge military presence in the Persian Gulf for years. Not
only will this cost billions and embroil us even deeper into the
convoluted politics of the region, but it will also strain links
with friendly Arab regimes.
Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the gulf emirates may hate Saddam
Hussein, but they fear being accused by their own people -- whose
support of Iraq in this conflict is clear -- of being lackeys of
the United States. Not a single Arab state that supported the gulf
war, including Kuwait, has openly backed this raid. Egypt, Syria
and even the United Arab Emirates have opposed it.
In addition, the principal restraint keeping Saddam Hussein in
check -- economic sanctions -- has been seriously compromised.
Although Russia and France have pushed hard to end sanctions, they
have for the most part observed them, which has limited Iraq's
military strength.
Sanctions were imposed not by the United States but by the Security
Council. We have consistently defended our actions against Iran as
justified by United Nations resolutions. But the current attack
does not have that authorization, and Russia and China have
denounced it.
If the United States can bomb Iraq without authorization, then why
won't other countries feel free to buy its oil and sell it goods?
The attack also endangers our relations with Security Council
members on other issues. For example, in denouncing the attack, the
Russians declared that they were shelving plans to ratify Start II
-- an arms reduction treaty the United States very much wants.
Yes, Saddam Hussein is a menace to his own people and the entire
Middle East. There is a case to be made for unilateral American
military action -- if we have the support of our partners and the
action is on a scale to be truly effective. But Desert Fox (with
its curious reference to a Nazi field marshal) does not meet that
standard.
A successful operation of this sort requires a certain degree of
cleverness and hypocrisy. We have not been clever enough to
convince our allies, other than Britain, that it is in their best
interest.
Nor do we have the support of the Security Council, a fig leaf that
has been highly useful in justifying American-led interventions
from the Korean War to the gulf war.
By declaring that the United States seeks to depose Saddam Hussein
and pave the way for a new Iraqi government, President Clinton went
far beyond his United Nations mandate, as Secretary General Kofi
Annan reminded him.
Because the Administration made no serious pretense to play by
United Nations rules, if only for show, it will be harder in the
future for the United States to claim that its unilateral actions
are taken on behalf of the world community.
Hypocrisy, which La Rochefoucauld called the tribute vice pays to
virtue, has an honored place in diplomacy, as it does in politics.
This operation lacks the virtue of its vices.
Ronald Steel is a professor of international relations at the
University of Southern California.
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