Israel answers to no one on nuclear weapons
By CRAIG NELSON
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer
Jerusalem -- The White House celebrated news last month that Libya will dismantle its weapons of mass destruction and that Iran will permit snap inspections of its nuclear program.
But the biggest nuclear power in the Middle East, the state that runs the most secretive WMD program in the world, has signaled no intention of disarming or even slowing down.
In fact, Israel has declined to discuss -- or even disclose -- its weapons systems for nearly 50 years, and it remained characteristically silent after December's developments in Tripoli and Tehran.
Washington, too, has had nothing to say about Israel's weapons, despite an increasingly compelling reason for raising the issue -- namely, that Syria and Iran, with Egypt's backing, say they will not disarm unless Israel does.
For the Bush administration to pressure Israel to declare the existence of its weapons of mass destruction and outline the contingencies for their use would, at the very least, remove a glaring double standard in its high-minded proclamations on the subject. It certainly would reassure moderate Arab states, where Israel is usually viewed as Goliath, not David.
Just as important, it would rob so-called "rogues" -- states, groups or individuals -- of one of their main rallying cries for recruiting followers to sow bloodshed and calamity against the West: Washington conveniently ignores Israel's defiance of international disarmament efforts.
But pressure to disarm, either from Washington or from inside Israel, is unlikely.
Since the inception of its nuclear weapons program in the mid-1950s, Israel has hewed to a policy of neither confirming nor denying its arsenal's existence. Few doubt, however, that it possesses such weapons. According to the Federation of American Scientists and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, it has at least 200 nuclear warheads. If true, that would make Israel the world's No. 5 nuclear power, surpassing Britain.
In addition, a 1993 report by the Office of Technology Assessment states that Israel has "undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities" and is "generally reported as having an undeclared offensive biological warfare program."
Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and therefore is not subject to inspections and the threat of sanctions by the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Its efforts to disguise its activities have gone beyond an unwillingness to enter the international anti-proliferation regime.
In the early 1960s, it actively deceived U.S. scientists inspecting its Dimona nuclear facility, building a fake control room to an underground uranium processing facility, according to "The Samson Option," an account of Israel's nuclear weapons program by Seymour M. Hersh.
Criticism rolls off
On the issue of WMD programs, international criticism has never troubled Israel. Israelis say the weapons are safe in their hands because they are not bent on destroying their neighbors. Syria and Iran, meanwhile, have sought mass-destruction weapons partly to counter Israel's, putting the region's security on a more wobbly foundation.
Israel's policy of neither confirming nor denying the existence of its arsenal has served it well, from the government's perspective. As former Prime Minister Shimon Peres has put it, "The suspicion and fog surrounding this issue are constructive."
On the one hand, the perception that it is a member of the nuclear club has provided Israel with a high level of deterrence in the Arab world. On the other hand, Israel's silence has enabled it to become the region's pre-eminent military power while avoiding a direct collision with U.S. policy on weapons proliferation. Such a collision might jeopardize portions of Israel's aid from Washington, which exceeds $3 billion annually.
This official posture of ambiguity "has enabled Israel for decades to enjoy the best of both worlds," said Shai Feldman, director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv.
Does secrecy work?
Whether the policy suits a new era and the perils that Israel faces is another matter. Does the veil around Israel's WMD undermine or encourage what the Israeli government says it wants -- a Middle East free of doomsday weapons?
In recent speeches, Israeli military officials have acknowledged that the country faces no threat on its "eastern front." Brig. Gen. Eival Giladi even boasted last month that the next time Syria and Israel clash in a war, the army will reach Damascus with the same speed that American troops drove to Baghdad last spring.
There is widespread agreement, too, that the strategic equation of the Middle East has been transformed by Moammar Gadhafi's about-face, Saddam Hussein's ouster in Iraq and the decision by Iran's mullahs to permit stricter inspections. Indeed, membership in the nuclear club appears to be losing value due to the financial costs and risks of outside intervention.
Stand fast, poll says
Still, Israeli leaders are skeptical, Feldman says. To them, Gadhafi's turnabout, like Iran's, reveals the weakness of international inspections and safeguards. Although both Tehran and Tripoli are signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and subject to its sanctions, evidence shows that both made significant advances toward development of WMD that went undetected for years.
For all of its military strength, Israel also remains profoundly anxious. Influential Israelis believe Sept. 11 ushered in a rising global tide of hate aimed at Jews and the Jewish state.
Against this background, only one in four Israelis believe that their country should give up its nuclear arsenal as part of a regional disarmament campaign, according to a survey published last week by Israel's state broadcaster.
Under these circumstances, any serious talk of relinquishing germs, gases and nukes is probably unrealistic. If recent news accounts about a famed nuclear whistle-blower are any indication, even acknowledging what the world assumes to be true appears premature, too.
Last month, Israel's domestic intelligence agency was said to be considering how to silence Mordechai Vanunu, who is scheduled for release from prison in April.
Vanunu, a nuclear technician, was sentenced to 18 years for espionage after giving dozens of pictures and a description of alleged weapons from Dimona to London's Sunday Times in 1986.
He had been lured from London to Rome by a female Israeli spy and taken to Tel Aviv for trial. The disclosures led to a sharp upward revision of the number of nuclear warheads in Israel.
Authorities are now said to be afraid that Vanunu could become a leader in a campaign to pressure Israel to dismantle its WMD program. The options under consideration for muzzling Vanunu include barring him from traveling overseas or speaking in public after he is released.
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