Watch out for Sharon's predictable diversions
Daily Star Online edition staff
Friday, May 07, 2004
Beware a cornered Israeli prime minister. Ariel Sharon is in a difficult situation by any standard. His promise to bring Israeli peace and security remains unfulfilled, and obviously implausible, given his contradictory emphasis on military means to resolve political issues.
The report Thursday of a foiled Israeli attempt to assassinate Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal in Syria comes on top of other actions that are troubling, and cautionary. Israel has maintained a low-level provocative posture along the border with Lebanon, and it persists in threatening to kill Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. This latter intention must have been raised a notch in recent days, given Arafat's reinforcement of his already battered headquarters in Ramallah. In Gaza and the West Bank, Sharon has been assassinating Palestinian resistance leaders for years, which has brought his people neither security nor peace. He has run out of people to kill, given the obvious futility of his policy.
He also suffers political pressures at home and abroad. The US and the "Quartet" have expressed understanding for some of his policies, but they also continue to push him to implement Israel's commitments under the "road map" agreement to return to Arab-Israeli peace negotiations. Internally, Sharon has lost his bid for his own party's support for his unilateral disengagement plan from Gaza. His standing among the Israeli public at large remains rocky as well, given the bribery scandal that plagues him and his sons. It is also likely that the Arab heads of state who meet in a summit later this month will reaffirm their collective peace offer that was first made two years ago in Beirut, which would further add to his sense of being cornered and out of synch with the region and the world.
Sharon's history as a military and political strategist is well known. He does not wait for situations to develop or change. He prefers to change the prevailing situation through his own initiatives. His first option in the situation in which he finds himself today may well be to expand the field of political and military operations beyond the confines of Israel and Palestine. South Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and other lands have always been places of great interest to Sharon and Israel as a whole. He may well see them today as legitimate theaters of operation for his penchant for bold and violent action. As he explores how to move to get out of the increasingly tight and uncomfortable space that he now inhabits, he is likely to look beyond Israel's borders for suitable operational areas, if not killing fields. His tendencies in this respect are predictable, which puts a special responsibility on his principal supporter - the United States - to ensure that he does not further enflame a region already awash with war and anger.
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