-Caveat Lector- MYSTERY BEHIND LATE RELEASE OF PPI DATA
By JOHN CRUDELE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- June 29, 2004 -- ONLY a dedicated cynic and a devout pain like me probably would bring this up, but how can the U.S. Labor Department expect people to believe statistics like the producer price index if the number is saturated in mystery? The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed release of the wholesale inflation number - the PPI - by half a week recently because, according to a press release, it needed to "resolve unexpected difficulties in calculating the index." A government agency doesn't produce a very important economic statistic on a timely basis and that's their best explanation? This is the same economic series that was delayed for months in early 2004. And it's a number that will prove important when the Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow to decide if interest rates should be raised. Keep in mind that billions of dollars are wagered each day on whether inflation is increasing or falling. And remember that the PPI is one of the most visible gauges of this - watched all over the world. Not only is the number important to the Fed, but it's also key to the presidential election if only because it can change the economy by forcing financial markets to make borrowing costs more expensive. "The BLS expresses its apologies to those who experience any problems as a result of this delay," the Labor Department said on its Web site. When the PPI was finally released it showed an increase of 0.8 percent in May, the biggest jump since March 2003. If you take out food and energy prices the increase was 0.3 percent. That the media didn't seem to care about this delay was as astounding as the government's ineptitude. So let me be one voice of indignation. (Pound fist on desk) We need to know what's going on! I called the Labor Department between the time the PPI was delayed and its eventual release. I got a little fuller explanation but one that was still completely unacceptable. Brian Catron, a BLS economist who works on the PPI data, says the number was delayed because "there was a calculation issue." What exactly does that mean? Does Catron mean that the PPI's jump, as originally calculated, was too large for the financial markets to handle? "You are implying that we are manipulating the number," Catron shot back when I asked. "I'm not going to dignify that with a response." OK, don't respond. I'm still wondering if that was the case. But here are some other things you might want to know. Catron assured me that the "mistake" that caused the PPI's delay had to do with the quality of the data that were provided by manufacturers. And he contended that Labor Department higher-ups had not seen the original number before it was pulled, so only lowly bureaucrats decided to rejigger the data. The raw data, Catron told me days before the PPI finally came out, didn't pass a quality assurance test. Prices - as they stood on the day they were originally supposed to be released - just weren't "appropriate" for public viewing. A little editing and they apparently become appropriate. Which makes me wonder: shouldn't someone be keeping an eye on the stat-amagicians? * Please send e-mail to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] www.ctrl.org DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
