What `October Surprise' might be in store for Americans this fall?
By Bruce Mulkey
June 25, 2004 7:31 p.m.
"Then I'll get on my knees and pray, we don't get fooled again."
- The Who
Fast forward to mid-October. President Bush continues to trail Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry in the presidential election polls, not so much because Kerry has electrified the American electorate, but because he's not Bush. Then it happens - the "October Surprise."
The original "October Surprise" was allegedly carried out in 1980 by officials of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign. Iranian militants had stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979, taking approximately 66 American hostages. President Jimmy Carter's administration pursued the return of the hostages but had little success. Years later, former Carter administration staffer Gary Sick attributed Carter's setback in this matter to overtures made to the Iranian government by officials of the Reagan campaign. By encouraging the Iranians to continue holding the hostages beyond the November 1980 presidential election, the Reagan supporters believed that their candidate would have a much better opportunity to unseat Carter. Whether or not Reagan's entourage actually convinced the Iranians to withhold the release of the hostages is still rigorously disputed. What is beyond dispute, however, is that Iran released the remaining hostages on Jan. 20, 1981, immediately after Reagan took office.
So if you were Karl Rove, Bush's top political strategist, and your candidate was slipping in the polls, what re- election strategy would you be cooking up right now?
And, of course, some unexpected events could occur over which the Bush campaign has no control. A Web site called October Surprise! (www.octobersur prise.net), is hosting an online poll in which visitors can vote for the incident they regard most likely to occur before the November election. The events below (in ascending order) received the most votes from the 6,000-plus respondents. The comments are my own.
Weapons of mass destruction found in Iraq.
Weapons of mass destruction may yet be found. After all, rumors of weapons of mass destruction being smuggled into Iraq by U.S. and British forces have been circulating on the Internet for a few months now.
U.S. pulls out of Iraq in October, leaving the U.N. in charge.
This scenario is simple; Bush declares victory and our soldiers come home. Highly unlikely, given the intransigent nature of the president.
Escalation in Israel, Iran or North Korea. U.S. opens a new war front.
Take your pick. Intense fighting breaks out between Palestinians and Israelis. Iran is accused of building nuclear weapons. North Korea tests a missile with a range capable of delivering nuclear warheads to our west coast. After much bluster and saber-rattling, the mother of all pre- emptive strikes is initiated. And, we won't need more ground troops from our thinly stretched armed forces; a few mini- nukes will do the trick.
Diebold Election Systems fixes the vote in battleground states.
Johns Hopkins' Information Security Institute issued a July 23, 2003, report asserting that Diebold's voting machine software contained "stunning flaws" and that vote totals could be modified by remote access. California recently decertified all electronic touch-screen voting machines in the state and may bring criminal and civil charges against Diebold for using uncertified software. But here's where the story really gets interesting. In a 2003 invitation to a Bush fundraiser, Diebold CEO Wally O'Dell stated, "I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year." O'Dell was named a pioneer by the 2004 Bush campaign, having raised at least $100,000 in campaign contributions so far.
Vote is threatened by terrorist attacks, vote suspended due to red alert.
Can't you just imagine Attorney General John Ashcroft and Homeland Security Chief Tom Ridge announcing that the alert level is being raised to orange in September? Then a red alert in October? In a 2003 interview, Gen. Tommy Franks ran the martial law flag up the pole, stating that a major terrorist attack might mean discarding the Constitution in favor of a military government. You can check out this option in an article called "When the War Hits Home: U.S. Plans for Martial Law, Tele-Governance and the Suspension of Elections" by Wayne Madsen and John Stanton at www.counterpunch.org/ madsen0514.html.
Major terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
It's likely Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida could assure the reelection of Bush by carrying out another horrific attack on American soil prior to the election. Given such an incendiary action, citizens would rally round the president once again. Don't discount this possibility too quickly, because, let's face it; bin Laden needs a fanatical foe against whom he can unite his true believers. And, similarly, Bush needs the fear that bin Laden evokes to maintain his facade as the forceful war president.
Osama bin Laden captured.
This would be the pice de rsistance for the Bush administration. In fact, maybe bin Laden has already been apprehended and incarcerated. Then, at just the right moment (based on data from polling and focus groups), his capture will be revealed to the American public on prime-time TV. This ploy was chosen by more than 37 percent of respondents in the poll. You can cast your vote for the October Surprise you think is most likely at www.october surprise.net/poll.php. But regardless of the tactics the Bush campaign uses, they've already cried "wolf" too often. In this immensely important election year, we won't get fooled again.
Readers can contact Bruce Mulkey via e-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit his Web site at www.brucemulkey.com.
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