-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/ <A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A> ----- Der Fuhrer Invades Yugoslavia Milosevic and the NATO Summit NATO convenes tomorrow for a summit conference that had originally been intended to celebrate fifty years of unity and will instead be a war council on strategy in the Serb war. In our view, the Serb�s are not viewing this meeting with dread. Quite the contrary, the meeting will give every opportunity for underlying disagreements to be expressed openly in a setting where the possibility for friction is high. Tony Blair, for example, has become increasingly bellicose and his rhetoric has become intense, to put it mildly. The United States has begun to talk of the ground war as if it were inevitable Germany and Italy, on the other hand, have been much more cautious and subdued. For them, a ground war is not only not inevitable, it is in many ways unthinkable. The opportunity for serious friction among the leaders is very real. Even on the question of the air war, there is division. Apart from concern over the effectiveness of the air war, it will be noted that the United States itself has not yet responded to NATO�s request for an additional 300 warplanes. Milosevic obviously wants to see the outcome of the meeting. His intelligence people will not be interested in the public statements and communiques, but in whether any sort of consensus is developing inside of NATO on ground war or a serious air campaign. A meeting of this magnitude will leak quickly and he will rapidly know whether Germany, Italy or Greece have changed their positions. Milosevic is betting heavily that they won�t. He has made a proposal in anticipation of the meeting, proposing that an unarmed, non-NATO peacekeeping force supervise a Kosovo agreement. There is enough room for maneuver there (armed Russians and Greeks, for example) to permit negotiations. This sets the stage for a confrontation between the Italo-German group and the Anglo-American group. The Germans will want to know why the Americans can�t use this as a basis for discussions and the American answer, which is that they don�t trust Milosevic, will send the Germans ballistic, since it will mean that no peace is possible without the overthrow of Milosevic. In short, Milosevic has done everything he can militarily and politically to turn the NATO summit into a disaster. It will be up to the NATO leadership to forge a common ground. Right now, the NATO position is frantic paralysis. It is the only common ground available. The United States and Britain will try to drag the rest of NATO toward ground combat, not because the U.S. wants it (an indicator is that no major army reserve components have yet been mobilized) but because they believe that this will convince Milosevic to fold his cards. The Germans and Italians will want to use Milosevic�s "compromise" to negotiate a diplomatic solution. When the smoke clears, the likely winner will be Serbia, since most of the outcomes favor them. If the current policy is continued, Serbia wins. If the Italo-German position carries, the Serbs win. If the U.S. policy of bluffing a ground invasion carries, Serbia wins. The only way that Serbia loses is if a fourth outcome, a genuine military strategy emerges. However, the likelihood of that happening is so small that Milosevic is prepared to risk it. Moreover, if it emerges, it will take months to implement, leaving plenty of time to allow for a graceful capitulation. So, all eyes move to Washington. The rhetoric will be firm, the press releases swift and deadly. However, having proven that Kosovo is worth all the bridges over the Danube, NATO will have trouble finding a strategy that fits their requirements. It should frighten Milosevic into capitulating without requiring NATO to make a major commitment or take a major risk. Milosevic is betting that the summit will be a sobering experience to NATO�s members, who will then r ealize that without a ground attack option agreed to, the only option left is a diplomatic resolution and a fairly bad peace from NATO�s side. We think that Milosevic is looking forward to the Washington summit a lot more than NATO. Stratfor Special Report, April 23, 1999 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End Kris DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! 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