-Caveat Lector-
ANALYSIS-Turk nationalist vote clouds EU relations
By Osman Senkul
ISTANBUL, April 22 (Reuters) - The surprise victory of nationalist parties in
Turkey's weekend elections has clouded the future of already troubled
relations with the European Union.
The far right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) emerged a surprise second behind
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit who himself has a hawkish reputation in foreign
policy. The pair appear to have begun a tentative courtship which could end
in coalition.
``The nationalist-led composition of the new Turkish parliament could lead to
the EU dropping Turkey from its new agenda of expansion,'' Faruk Sen, head of
the German-based Turkish Studies Centre, told Reuters.
Turkey's relations with the EU have been cool since 1997, when Brussels put
Ankara's membership bid on hold citing its shaky human rights record and
disputes with Greece.
The Turkish government responded by cutting off dialogue with the bloc on
sensitive political issues. Last month a senior foreign ministry official
said all trust and understanding had evaporated in relations between Ankara
and the EU.
Ankara has also been angered by EU failure to provide promised financial aid
to help adjustment to a 1996 customs union with the bloc. The funds were held
up by Greek vetoes.
Sen said MHP backers who come mainly from the conservative Anatolian
heartland, would pressure their party for a tougher policy against the EU.
Others said that Ecevit could also back a more aggressive role abroad.
``Ecevit is known as a foreign policy hawk and it appears he will carry on
this policy in the near future,'' said Kemal Sahin, head of the Association
of Turkish Businessmen and Industrialists in Europe.
While the far right MHP has said it is committed to a liberal economy, party
publications brand the EU a ``Christian Club'' and pledge to change those
aspects of the customs union seen as harming Turkey's economic interests.
Sen said MHP leader Devlet Bahceli was an unknown in Europe where there were
doubts about the party's supporters who earned a reputation for violence in
1970s street fights with leftists.
``The Greens who know the MHP of the 1970s very well are angered by the
Turkish election results,'' he said. Europe's Christian Democrats were also
upset with the outcome.
But there are bright aspects to the election outcome.
``Europe welcomes the Virtue Party's defeat since it is seen to mean Turkey
will not become an Islamic state,'' Sen added.
Businessman Sahin said an Ecevit coalition with the centre-right Motherland
Party (ANAP) could temper the nationalist wave. ``If ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz
took part in a coalition government, there would not be any significant
change in the government's current foreign policy.''
Commercial realities, however, may restrain diplomacy. Some 60 percent of
Turkey's foreign trade is with the EU.
Some analysts say a nationalist-led government could strengthen the already
clearly perceptible drift towards the United States. The U.S. values Turkey
as a strategic ally and Washington officials are sensitive to the EU
rebuttal.
America has also been outspoken in its denunciation of Kurdish guerrilla
leader Abdullah Ocalan as a ``terrorist,'' where many western European states
have proved reticent.
``The MHP and DSP would prefer closer relations with the US rather than
Europe,'' said Izzettin Onder, economics professor at Istanbul University.
``The U.S. has a similar point of view on the Kurdish question and human
rights as the Turk nationalists.''
Turkey has been fighting separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels in
the mainly Kurdish southeast for 14 years.
Europe says it will closely monitor the treason trial of Ocalan, whom Ankara
blames for more than 29,000 deaths.
Onder said a new government with a nationalist outlook could be ``another
excuse'' for Europe to keep Turkey out. Many here feel overwhelmingly Moslem
Turkey's exclusion from the EU is due to religious or cultural bias, that no
matter what progress is made in rights or economics the answer will always be
'no.'
But he added: ``Europe would not risk economic relations with a huge market
like Turkey.''
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