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Covert Intervention by European Central Bank Expected

By Raj Rajendran
Reuters
Thursday, November 25, 2004

http://www.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?
duid=mtfh66519_2004-11-25_13-55-06_l25626607_newsml

LONDON -- The euro hit a record high of $1.32 on 
Thursday on a growing view Washington is happy 
to see a weaker dollar, while bond prices rallied 
on a slump in the German Ifo business confidence 
index to its lowest in over a year.

Gold soared to a fresh 16-1/4-year high above $452 
a troy ounce on the back of the sliding dollar and 
oil moved above $49 a barrel on concerns over thin 
heating oil supplies.

But European equity investors drove stock markets 
higher as corporate earnings continued to please, in 
light trade with Wall Street shut for the U.S. 
Thanksgiving holiday.

Appetite for euro zone assets was underlined by 
data showing a sharp increase in portfolio 
investments to 39.6 billion euros in September from 
6.3 billion in August.

"The basic message coming from (the data) is that 
there is a more solid backing coming from the 
underlying investment flow picture for a stronger 
euro than we have seen for some time," said Tony 
Norfield, global head of foreign exchange strategy 
at ABN AMRO.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.63 percent at 
1,029.33 points.

The euro set a high of $1.3237 while the dollar fell 
to 102.41 yen, a loss of more than 8 percent since 
late September.

The dollar also set new lows against other 
currencies -- a nine-year low against the Swiss franc, 
a 16-year trough on the New Zealand dollar, and a 
nine-year low against a basket of currencies.

"We have moved into a new stage of the dollar decline. ... 
The move is very much a full-fledged policy event. Until 
policymakers truly protest, what's going to stop the 
trend?" said Jim McCormick, head of foreign exchange 
research at Lehman Brothers.

Euro zone policymakers could be forced to show their 
hands in the face of patchy economic growth. The latest 
dismal Ifo index is another sign that all is not well.

The German Ifo business climate index fell to its lowest 
level in more than a year at 94.1 in November as the 
euro's surge to new highs and strong oil prices 
dampened confidence among executives.

"It is becoming increasingly accepted that the European 
Central Bank will have to act in the event that the euro 
nears the $1.35 level, which is the equivalent to the 
1.45 low in the USD/Deutsche mark attained in summer 
1995," said MG Financial Group chief currency analyst 
Ashraf Laidi.

Laidi expects the intervention to eventually take the form 
of covert euro selling via German and French commercial 
banks.

The stronger euro and weak Ifo data helped euro zone 
government bonds rise as the interest-rate sensitive 
two-year Schatz yield fell to its lowest in more than 7 
months at 2.32 percent.

The December Bund future was up 12 ticks on the day 
at 118.30, compared to 118.31 before the data.

Earlier, the Bund future hit a contract high at 118.36 
after confidence among Italian manufacturing firms fell 
in November to its lowest level since May.

U.S. Treasury markets are closed but on Wednesday 
short-term yields shot up to two-year highs on 
expectations of higher U.S. interest rates.

Solid results from Britain's biggest supermarket Tesco 
and German chemical giant Bayer helped shares get 
off to a strong start as investors looked past the stronger 
euro.

Consumer electronics giant Philips also rose after selling 
its 3 percent stake in French media group Vivendi 
Universal for 720 million euros.

Philips shares rose 1.5 percent as traders speculated what 
it would do with the cash, while shares in Vivendi eased 
0.7 percent.

Britain's third largest bank Barclays was one weak spot, 
down 3.7 percent as traders focused on increased costs 
despite the company confirming it expected to meet 
market forecasts for the full year. U.S. stocks closed 
higher on Wednesday, with technology stocks Google 
Inc. and Apple Computer Inc. leading the way.

Tokyo's Nikkei average closed higher but the gains were 
capped by the yen rising to new 4-1/2 year highs against 
the dollar.

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Ted Butler silver commentary archive:

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----------------------------------------------------

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http://www.gloomdoom.com
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178 West Service Road
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Toll Free:1-877-775-4826 
Fax: 518-298-3457 
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[EMAIL PROTECTED]

----------------------------------------------------

HOW TO HELP GATA

If you benefit from GATA's dispatches, please 
consider making a financial contribution to 
GATA. We welcome contributions as follows.

By check:

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, CT 06043-7541
USA

By credit card (MasterCard, Visa, and
Discover) over the Internet:

http://www.gata.org/creditcard.html


By GoldMoney:

http://www.GoldMoney.com
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Holding number 50-08-58-L


Donors of $750 or more will, upon request, 
be sent a print of Alain Despert's colorful 
painting symbolizing our cause, titled "GATA."

GATA is a civil rights and educational 
organization under the U.S. Internal Revenue 
Code and contributions to it are tax-deductible 
in the United States. 

-END-




 

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www.ctrl.org
DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
==========
CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic
screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please!   These are
sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis-
directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with
major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought.
That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and
always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no
credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply.

Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
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