-Caveat Lector-

<<Now, for those who have read a little history, recall the Brits in WW2 --
well before the U.S. devoted manpower thereto -- wasn't it Winnie Churchill
who rallied his underling citizen followers to resist the attackers,
defended by a few RAF fighter aircraft and the will and resistance of the
populace, bombed and bombed and ... ?  Wouldn't any person, regradless of
national origin, defend their homes and homeland?  And here we have
adversaries who were once allied against the self same attacker -- now
supposedly 'different'?  Perhaps ... perhaps not ...>>


>From Int'l Herald Tribune
Paris, Tuesday, April 27, 1999
Milosevic: Undaunted And Unbowed

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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By Michael Dobbs Washington Post Service
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BELGRADE - NATO warplanes reduced his home to a pile of rubble, put his
television stations off the air and destroyed the headquarters of his ruling
Socialist Party. But President Slobodan Milosevic carries on with what, to
outside appearances at least, is his regular routine. He presides over
cabinet meetings, meets with foreign dignitaries and issues orders for
reconstructing his devastated country.
When NATO began its air campaign against Serb-led Yugoslavia a month ago,
alliance officials expressed the hope that it would cause serious political
strains within the Milosevic regime, perhaps even provoke a revolt by his
senior military commanders. So far, these hopes have not been realized.

If anything, the man whom President Bill Clinton calls ''Europe's last
dictator'' is more solidly entrenched in power now than he was when the
bombs first began to rain down on his country, according to Yugoslav
political analysts.

Associates depict Mr. Milosevic as a man of strong nerves, angry but unfazed
by the bombing of his residence and determined to resist NATO ''aggression''
to the end, even if the alliance attempts to occupy Kosovo with a ground
offensive. ''Imagine your reaction if a criminal came and destroyed your
home,'' said Foreign Minister Zivadin Jovanovic. All the same, he added, Mr.
Milosevic ''is conducting his business as president of the republic and
commander in chief absolutely normally.''

Asked how Mr. Milosevic reacted to the missile attack on his official
residence in the exclusive Dedinje section of Belgrade, Mr. Jovanovic quoted
him as saying, ''It's terrible, but perhaps less terrible'' than if NATO had
attacked a populated civilian area.

Former associates say the Yugoslav president seems to thrive in situations
in which he has his back against the wall. ''He is stimulated by crises,''
said an official who has worked closely with him. ''When everything is
normal, he can't come up with a strategy. He needs conflict. NATO played
right into his hands.''

Given the secrecy that surrounds the inner workings of the Yugoslav regime,
and particularly Mr. Milosevic's own activities, it is virtually impossible
to get independent insights into the Yugoslav leader's present state of
mind.

But the general impression of cool calculation mingled with indignant
self-righteousness is consistent with his behavior during earlier political
crises, including three dramatic months in early 1997 when popular
demonstrations over electoral fraud seemed to have a good chance of toppling
him from power.

Mr. Milosevic rode out that crisis in the same way that he is riding out the
present war with the U.S.-led alliance: through a mixture of stubbornness,
patience and cosmetic concessions.

Many political analysts in Serbia, including Zoran Djindjic, leader of the
opposition Democratic Party, say that the present crisis has strengthened
Mr. Milosevic. The NATO attacks have sparked a nationalistic upsurge that
has seriously undermined Mr. Milosevic's opposition, because it now seems
unpatriotic to be pro-Western.

The buttressing of Mr. Milosevic's political position has not necessarily
made him more popular among ordinary Serbs. Many Serbs, particularly in big
cities like Belgrade, continue to have little affection for a man they
associate with a decade of war and a catastrophic decline in their standard
of living. The present mood is not pro-Milosevic but anti-NATO.

''For most Serbs, Milosevic does not matter any more,'' said a former
associate. ''This is not about him. This is about the country.''

One of the very few political leaders here who has openly espoused political
compromise with the West is Deputy Prime Minister Vuk Draskovic, the leader
of a moderate party who joined the government this year.

In a television appearance Sunday night, he urged the Belgrade government to
accept a compromise on Kosovo that he predicted would be reached with
Russian and UN mediation, and he called on state leaders to ''stop lying to
the people and finally tell them the truth.''

As a statesman, Mr. Milosevic has presided over disastrous setbacks for
Yugoslavia and Serbia. During his 10 years in power, the country has lost
traditional Serb-occupied lands in Croatia and Bosnia. The economy was a
shambles even before NATO missiles began destroying the country's biggest
industrial plants, bridges and power grids.

As a political tactician determined to hang on to power, however, Mr.
Milosevic has few equals. In the opening phase of the present crisis, his
grasp of military strategy and war aims seems to have been superior to that
of his NATO enemies. While Mr. Milosevic apparently had a good idea of the
damage that NATO was prepared to inflict on his country - and made the
brutal calculation that the pain was bearable - NATO was unprepared for the
all-out Serb offensive in Kosovo and the forced exodus of many of its ethnic
Albanian inhabitants.

Even if NATO succeeds in wresting control over Kosovo from Belgrade through
a protracted air campaign or a ground offensive, most Serbian observers
believe Mr. Milosevic will find ways of turning the situation to his
advantage.

''This will probably end with a Western victory,'' said Aleksa Djilas, a
political analyst who is the son of the former Yugoslav dissident Milovan
Djilas. But, he said, ''it will be a Pyrrhic victory'' if the aim is to get
rid of Mr. Milosevic or to ensure lasting political stability in the
Balkans.

Like many other Serbian intellectuals who have opposed Mr. Milosevic, Mr.
Djilas believes that Western governments made a mistake in squeezing the
Yugoslav leader into a corner. ''They left no room for diplomacy,'' Mr.
Djilas said. ''They came to the conclusion that nobody here supports
Milosevic so they could simply bully him.''



>From http://www.oneworld.org/ips2/april99/18_16_080.html

IPS news reports appear daily in English, German, Finnish, Norwegian,
Spanish and Swedish.
To subscribe, please contact us at: Africa, Asia, Caribbean, Europe, Latin
America, North America.  <<Links at site>>


CONFLICT-YUGOSLAVIA: NATO Raids Cause More Damage than Nazis
By Vesna Peric-Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Apr 23 (IPS) - NATO countries may be fighting their war against
Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic, but in the eyes of ordinary Serbs,
four weeks of air raids have meticulously destroyed the works of many
generations.
For the first time in years, Yugoslav official statistics and independent
analyses coincide: the month-long NATO air campaign has caused more damage
to the country than the Nazi German occupation between the end of 1941 and
mid-1944.

''According to our estimates, the total economic damage caused by NATO
aggression and measured in relation to gross domestic product will likely
exceed that caused in World War II,'' Group-17, a caucus of independent,
market-oriented economists said this week.

''We are drawing the attention of the international community to the fact
that the NATO aggression on Yugoslavia represents an act of brutal
retaliation against an entire nation and not a punishment of Milosevic's war
machinery,'' the group added.

According to statistics released by the Yugoslav government, 517 civilians
have been killed all over Serbia since the NATO air campaign began. The
report did not specify how many of them were ethnic Albanians.

The direct damage inflicted on industrial, commercial and civil facilities
and structure exceeds 10 billion US dollars, while indirect war damage can
be put at several dozen billion US dollars, as more than 500.000 people have
lost their workplaces , official and independent experts coincide.

The official report adds that 11 important bridges on key routes have been
destroyed, while 12 important railway points and six major roads are damaged
to the point that they are not functional. Seven airports all over Serbia
and Montenegro have been badly damaged, of which only three are of military
nature.

''Group 17'' warned against further destruction of industrial facilities in
Serbia, where oil, chemical, car, fertiliser, construction machinery and
home appliances plants have already been badly hit.

The Yugoslav government named 40 industrial sites, 16 refineries and
chemical plants, and six agriculture complexes as having been totally
destroyed since March 24.

Sixteen hospitals and health care centres were targeted, while over 190
schools, faculties or facilities for students and children have been damaged
or destroyed, on top of 17 television transmitters.

The number of private houses damaged or destroyed is given as ''several
thousand'' in towns and small villages all over the country.

Heavy damage has been inflicted upon 17 mediaeval monasteries and churches,
plus eight sites classified as ''historical heritage.''

Group 17, whose members work both in the country and abroad, also coincided
with government assessments of an ecological disaster of regional dimension.

''With these attacks, the alliance has consciously risked a global
environmental catastrophe which could result in pestilence of a huge number
of people,'' the group warned.

In its report, the Government estimates that more than 2,000 cruise missiles
have been launched were launched against Yugoslavia and over 6,000 tons of
explosives were dropped over its territory in about 7,000 NATO combat
missions.

The report did not quote its sources, but analysts in Belgrade say it came
from the military.

The Yugoslav Army (VJ) is reluctant to provide statistics on damage
inflicted upon it since March 24. So far, it has only announced the death of
10 soldiers, but the number is believed to be larger, judging by the long
obituaries in Serbian dailies.

Military sources limit themselves to saying that ''most of (Yugoslavia's)
anti-aircraft systems, support and other systems have suffered only minor
damage''.

''We're still highly movable, we're on our own terrain and we do have
support from our people'' a highly placed military source told IPS. ''We
know that we are not a match for NATO, our aim is not to win, we (just) have
to defend our people'' he added.

General Nebojsa Pavkovic, commander of the Third Army, based in Pristina
(Kosovo), told journalists earlier this week that the effects of NATO
campaign were ''negligible'' so far.

He said his units alone had downed 16 NATO planes, five helicopters, 46
cruise missiles and four unmanned aircraft. So far, NATO has admitted losing
one fighter plane, a F-117A Stealth fighter, shot down early in the war and
a few unmanned aircraft.

Seen on television screens from a comfortable distance, the highly
publicised attacks on Milosevic's house, the Serbian Television building or
the Socialist party headquarters might look like good scores for NATO
pilots.

But from the inside, ordinary Serbs see such scores as a symbol of the
country's painful devastation.

''It has come to the point where nobody seems to remember why this really
started'' says Predrag Simic of Belgrade Institute for International
Politics and Economy.

''The destruction of such proportions does not look like it has anything to
do with bringing the ethnic Albanian refugees back to Kosovo or tuning down
the military machinery of Serbia...It looks completely different. It's a
NATO war against Serbia.'' (END/IPS/vpz/ak/99)

.




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