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-Caveat Lector- Commercial photos show
Chinese nuke buildup
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
February 16, 2006Commercial satellite photos made public recently provide a new look at China's nuclear forces and bases -- images that include the first view of a secret underwater submarine tunnel.
A Pentagon official said the photograph of the tunnel entrance reveals for the first time a key element of China's hidden military buildup. Similar but more detailed intelligence photos of the entrance are highly classified within the U.S. government, the official said.
"The Chinese have a whole network of secret facilities that the U.S. government understands but cannot make public," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "This is the first public revelation of China's secret buildup."
The photographs, taken from 2000 to 2004, show China's Xia-class ballistic missile submarine docked at the Jianggezhuang base, located on the Yellow Sea in Shandong province.
Nuclear warheads for the submarine's 12 JL-1 missiles are thought to be stored inside an underwater tunnel that was photographed about 450 meters to the northwest of the submarine. The high-resolution satellite photo shows a waterway leading to a ground-covered facility.
Other photographs show additional underground military facilities, including the Feidong air base in Anhui province with a runway built into a nearby hill.
The photographs were obtained by the nonprofit groups Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Federation of American Scientists. The photos first appeared Friday in the winter edition of the quarterly newsletter Imaging Notes.
The photographs are sharp enough to identify objects on the ground about 3 feet in size. Such digital images were once the exclusive domain of U.S. technical intelligence agencies, but in recent years, commercial companies have deployed equally capable space-based cameras.
Disclosure of the underground bases supports analyses of Pentagon and intelligence officials who say China is engaged in a secret military buildup that threatens U.S. interests, while stating publicly that its forces pose no threat.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said during a trip to China in October that Beijing was sending "mixed signals" by building up forces in secret and without explaining their purpose.
Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the Navy's Pacific Fleet, said he did not consider China "a threat." But he also said in a speech Tuesday that China's purpose behind its rapid military buildup is not fully known. "That's a little unclear," he said, noting that "increased transparency" is needed from China.
The photographs included several shots of Chinese H-6 strategic bombers and related aerial refueling tankers at Dangyang airfield in Hubei province. Also, 70 nuclear-capable Qian-5 aircraft were photographed parked at an airfield in Jianqiao, Zhejiang province, on the East China Sea coast.
The Pentagon's four-year strategy report made public earlier this month stated that China is emerging as a power with "the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States." The report stated that Beijing is investing heavily in "strategic [nuclear] arsenal and capabilities to project power beyond its borders."
The report did not provide specifics. U.S. officials said, however, that the secrecy of the Chinese buildup has fueled a debate within the U.S. government over the threat posed by that country.
U.S. intelligence agencies recently produced a National Intelligence Estimate, or major interagency analysis, that concluded China is using strategic deception to fool the United States and other nations about its goals and programs, including its military buildup.
Pentagon officials have asked China to allow visits to underground facilities such as the submarine tunnel and a command center in Beijing, but either the requests were denied or the existence of the sites was denied.
"The Chinese have denied having any underground submarine facilities," the Pentagon official said, noting that the satellite photos indicate that China has misled the United States.
Underground submarine sites are one of 10 major types of facilities hidden by the Chinese military, U.S. officials said. The others include nuclear missile storage facilities, other weapons plants, command centers and political leadership offices.
In 2004, China revealed the first of a new class of submarines. The development of the Yuan-class submarines was kept secret through the use of an underground factory in south-central China, the officials said.
Since 2002, Beijing has deployed 14 submarines. And it is working on a new ballistic-missile submarine, known as the Jin class, and two new Shang-class attack submarines.
According to a classified Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, China's nuclear forces include about 45 long-range missiles, 12 submarine-launched missiles and about 100 short-range missiles -- each with a single warhead.
By 2020, China's arsenal will include up to 220 long-range missiles, up to 44 submarine-launched missiles and up to 200 short-range missiles, the DIA report stated.
Richard Fisher, a China military analyst at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in addition to the northern submarine base, China also has a major submarine base at Yulin, on Hainan island in the South China Sea.
The southern base gives Chinese missile submarines easier access to firing areas than the Yellow Sea base, which is more vulnerable to attacks from U.S. anti-submarine warfare systems.-------------------
Feb. 17, 2006
China, Iran near huge oil deal
ELAINE KURTENBACH
Associated Press
SHANGHAI, China - China and Iran are close to setting plans to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, according to published reports, in a multibillion-dollar deal that comes as Tehran faces the prospect of sanctions over its nuclear program.
The deal is thought potentially to be worth about $100 billion.
According to Caijing, a respected financial magazine, a Chinese government delegation is due to visit Iran as early as March to formally sign an agreement allowing China Petrochemical Corp., also known as Sinopec, to develop Yadavaran.
The Wall Street Journal also reported in Friday's editions that the two sides are trying to conclude the deal in coming weeks before potential sanctions are imposed on Iran for its nuclear ambitions. The report cited unnamed Iranian oil ministry officials familiar with the talks.
The deal would complete a memorandum of understanding signed in 2004.
In exchange for developing Yadavaran, one of Iran's largest onshore oil fields, China would agree to buy 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas a year for 25 years beginning in 2009, the Caijing report said, citing Sinopec board member Mou Shuling.
Chinese and Iranian officials in Beijing said they could not confirm the report.
"I know nothing about this. I can't answer your questions," said Ma Li, a spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission, the planning agency in charge of China's energy and resources industries that Caijing said would dispatch officials to Iran.
Staff at Iran's embassy in Beijing said they were aware of the report but had not heard Mou's remarks, which Caijing said were made at a recent embassy event.
A written statement from the Iranian Embassy noted that the two countries have been working together in various energy fields, "following the rule of mutual benefits and respect in all bilateral cooperation."
Calls to Sinopec's headquarters were not answered late Friday.
The Caijing report said Chinese and Iranian officials met in December for talks on the project. It cited Mou as saying the two governments and companies involved were moving ahead with the deal despite the controversy over Iran's nuclear program.
According to the Caijing report, Sinopec would hold a 51 percent stake in the Yadavaran project, with India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp., or ONGC, taking 29 percent. The remainder would go to Iranian companies and possibly to Royal Dutch Shell PLC, which has also expressed interest, it said.
The report said there was some disagreement over intended capacity, with Iran asking China to agree to daily output of 300,000 barrels of oil, while Sinopec preferred to set a target of 180,000 to avoid excess production.
Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner, has shares traded in New York, London, Hong Kong and Shanghai.
China, seeking oil and gas to fuel its booming economy amid stagnant production at home, has been snapping up energy resources in places as far flung as Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Australia. Its investments in Iran and Sudan have prompted complaints it is undermining diplomatic efforts to bring recalcitrant regimes in line.
Beijing has strongly urged that a diplomatic solution be found to the impasse over Iran's nuclear program.
Western nations fear that Iran plans to develop nuclear weapons, but Iran insists its intentions are purely for generating electricity. Growing international concern about its aims contributed to Tehran being reported to the U.N. Security Council by the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog.
On Thursday, France's foreign minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, accused Iran of secretly making nuclear weapons.
The Security Council is due to consider Iran's nuclear activities next month. The council has the power to impose
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