-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: March 15, 2007 12:40:06 PM PST
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: What's REALLY Important to Bush in "Winding Down" War in Iraq
AL-MALIKI TELLS AIDES:
HE MUST MEET IRAQI-OIL BENCHMARK DEADLINE JUNE 30
-- OR BUSH ADMINISTRATION WILL REMOVE HIM FROM OFFICE
The Associated Press, March 13, 2007
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/13/africa/ME-GEN-Iraq-Oil.php
BAGHDAD: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fears the Americans will
withdraw support for his government — effectively ousting him — if
parliament does not pass a draft oil law by the end of June, close
associates of the Iraqi leader told The Associated Press on Tuesday.
The legislature has not even taken up the draft measure for a fair
distribution of the nation's oil wealth — only one of several U.S.
benchmarks that are now seen by al-Maliki, a hardline Shiite, as
key to continued American support for his troubled government.
Beyond that, the al-Maliki associates told AP, American officials
have informed the prime minister they want an Iraqi government in
place by year's end that would be acceptable to Iraq's Sunni Arab
neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.
"They have said it must be secular and inclusive," one al-Maliki
associate said.
To that end, al-Maliki made an unannounced visit Tuesday to Ramadi,
the Sunni insurgent stronghold, to meet with tribal leaders, the
provincial governor and security chiefs in a bid to signal his
willingness for reconciliation to end the bitter and bloody
sectarian war that has riven Iraq for more than a year.
For its part, the U.S. military is speaking with great optimism
about its efforts to turn Sunnis in volatile Anbar province away
from the insurgency and its al-Qaida in Iraq allies.
Compounding al-Maliki's fears about a withdrawal of American
support were visits to Saudi Arabia by two key political figures in
an admitted bid to win support for a major Iraqi political
realignment. Saudi Arabia is a major U.S. ally and oil supplier.
Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a Shiite, arrived in the Saudi
capital Tuesday. Masoud Barzani, leader of Iraq's largely
autonomous Kurdish region, flew in a day earlier. Most Kurds are
Sunni Muslims.
"Allawi is there to enlist support for a new political front that
rises above sectarian structures now in place," the former prime
minister's spokesman Izzat al-Shahbandar told AP.
Barzani spokesman Abdul-Khaleq Zanganah said the two had met in
Kurdistan before traveling to Saudi Arabia for talks on forming a
"national front to take over for the political bloc now supporting
al-Maliki."
It appears certain that the United States was informed about the
Allawi and Barzani opening to the Saudis, who are deeply concerned
that al-Maliki could become a puppet of Iran, the Shiite theocracy
on Iraq's eastern border. Tehran is seen as a threat to stability
among the long-standing Sunni regimes throughout most of the Arab
world and deeply at odds with the United States over Iran's nuclear
program and policy toward Israel.
Washington has been reported to be working more closely with Sunni
Arab governments to encourage them to take a greater role in Iraq,
particularly in reining in the Sunni insurgency that has killed
thousands of U.S. soldiers and tens of thousands more Iraqi Shiites.
Washington was believed to be trying to win support for its mission
in Iraq among the country's Arab neighbors by assuring a greater
future role for the Sunni minority that ran the country until the
U.S. invasion ousted Saddam Hussein.
One al-Maliki confidant said the Americans in Baghdad had voiced
displeasure with the prime minister's government even though he has
managed so far to blunt major resistance from the Mahdi Army, the
Shiite militia, to the joint U.S.-Iraqi security operation in the
capital and its environs. The militia is the military wing of the
political organization run by anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr, whose political backing secured the premiership for al-
Maliki.
"They have said they are frustrated that he has done nothing to
oust the Sadrists, that the oil law has not moved forward, that
there is no genuine effort on reconciliation and no movement on new
regional elections," said the official on condition of anonymity
because he was not authorized to release the information.
Passage of the oil law, which seeks a fair distribution of revenues
among all Iraq's sectarian and ethnic groups, has become a major
issue for the United States, which had initially counted on
financing Iraq's post-invasion reconstruction with oil revenues.
But the decrepit oil infrastructure and violence have left the
country producing oil at about the same levels as before the war,
at best, and those figures are well below production before the
first Gulf War which resulted in U.N. sanctions against the Iraqi
oil industry.
The major Sunni bloc in parliament along with Allawi loyalists in
the Shiite bloc are openly opposed the draft oil measure as
drafted. Al-Maliki also has lost the backing of the Shiite Fadila
Party, and independent Shiite members are split on the bill.
The al-Maliki associates said U.S. officials, who they would not
name, had told the prime minister that President Bush was committed
to the current government but that continued White House support
depended on positive action on all the benchmarks — especially the
oil law and sectarian reconciliation — by the close of this
parliamentary session on June 30.
"Al-Maliki is committed to meeting the deadline because he is
convinced he would not survive in power without U.S. support," one
of the associates said.
But standing in the way of forward movement is a recalcitrant
Cabinet which al-Maliki has promised to reshuffle by the end of
this week. So far, however, he is at loggerheads with the political
groupings in parliament which are threatening to withdraw their
support for the prime minister if he does not allow the blocs to
name replacements for Cabinet positions.
The impasse amounts effectively to a threat to bring down the
government if it does what the Americans reportedly are telling al-
Maliki he must do to win continued U.S. backing.
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