-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: March 16, 2007 6:50:04 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Arctic Meltdown: An Area the Size of Alaska Has Melted
Collapse of Arctic sea ice 'has reached tipping-point'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
The Independent (UK), 16 March 2007
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/
article2362744.ece
A catastrophic collapse of the Arctic sea ice could lead to radical
climate changes in the northern hemisphere, according to scientists
who warn that the rapid melting is at a "tipping point" beyond
which it may not recover.
The scientists attribute the loss of some 38,000 square miles of
sea ice -- an area the size of Alaska -- to rising levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere as well as to natural variability in
Arctic ice.
Ever since satellite measurements of the Arctic sea ice began in
1979, the surface area covered by summer sea ice has retreated from
the long-term average. This has increased the rate of coastal
erosion from Alaska to Siberia and caused problems for polar bears,
which rely on sea ice for hunting seals.
However, in recent years the rate of melting has accelerated and
the sea ice is showing signs of not recovering even during the
cold, dark months of the Arctic winter. This has led to even less
sea ice at the start of the summer melting season.
Mark Serreze, a senior glaciologist at the University of Colorado
at Boulder, said the world was heading towards a situation where
the Arctic will soon be almost totally ice-free during summer,
which could have a dramatic impact on weather patterns across the
northern hemisphere.
"When the ice thins to a vulnerable state, the bottom will drop out
and we may quickly move into a new, seasonally ice-free state of
the Arctic," Dr Serreze said.
"I think there is some evidence that we may have reached that
tipping point, and the impacts will not be confined to the Arctic
region," he said.
Some studies have linked the loss of sea ice in the Arctic to
changes in atmospheric weather patterns that influence such things
as rainfall in southern and western Europe and the amount of snow
in the Rocky Mountains of the American Midwest.
The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth and
scientists fear that temperatures could rise even faster once sea
ice melts to expose dark ocean, which absorbs heat more easily
without its reflective cap of ice.
"While the Arctic is losing a great deal of ice in the summer
months, it now seems that it also is regenerating less ice in the
winter. With this increasing vulnerability, a kick to the system
just from natural climate fluctuations could send it into a
tailspin," Dr Serreze said.
During the late 1980s and early 1990s, changing wind patterns
flushed much of the thick sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean and into
the North Atlantic, where it drifted south and melted away.
A thinner layer of young ice formed in its place, which more
readily melts during the warmer, summer months - leading to the
appearance of a greater area of open water that absorbs sunlight
and heat. The summer sea ice reached an all-time minimum in
September 2005, with September 2006 the second lowest.
"This ice-flushing even could be a small-scale analogue of the sort
of kick that could invoke rapid collapse, or it could have been the
kick itself. At this point, I don't think we really know," Dr
Serreze said.
Julienne Stroeve from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in
Colorado said that the winter sea ice failed again this year to
recover fully.
"The freeze-up this year was again delayed, and ice extents from
October through to December set new record lows during the
satellite era," she said.
Computer models suggest that summer sea ice could disappear
altogether by 2080. Some forecasts even predict an ice-free summer
by 2040.
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