-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: April 27, 2007 7:26:39 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: "WAR Game" Test-Run of Bird Flu "National Emergency" and
Martial Law
U.S. health agency stages
bird flu WAR GAME
By Matthew Bigg Fri Apr 27, 5:34 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070427/us_nm/usa_birdflu_wargame_dc_1
ATLANTA (Reuters) - A leading U.S. health agency staged a war game
this week to test its response to one of the worst health
emergencies it could imagine -- an outbreak of avian flu on
American soil.
The exercise, which ended on Friday, was designed to simulate how
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would marshal its
resources, coordinate with other branches of government and,
crucially, reassure the public while preparing it for a possible
pandemic.
"If we were at the beginning of a pandemic this is exactly what it
would look like," said CDC Director Julie Gerberding at a news
conference early in the 48-hour drill, which involved hundreds of
officials.
If things turn out wrong it could lead to a "catastrophe beyond our
planning," she said.
In the script, a student infected with a new strain of H5N1 virus
returns from Indonesia where a bird flu outbreak is under way. He
dies but not before infecting others including members of a
swimming team.
On Day One, 12 people contract the disease in four states and 25
percent die, a rate that shows the virus to be particularly lethal.
By Day Two, there are 25 cases and CDC is forced to consider
whether to recommend ordering schools to close, banning flights
from Indonesia or even shutting U.S. borders.
They decide against these measures but send experts to Indonesia,
release a quarter of the U.S. stockpile of flu vaccines and force
all international flights to land at just 10 airports to screen
passengers and limit the disease's spread.
Health experts say that in real life it's just a matter of time
before a global flu pandemic strikes. The 1918 pandemic killed up
to 100 million people -- 650,000 in the United States -- and there
have been two subsequent less-severe pandemics.
"24"
In some ways the war game resembled <DHS czar Michael Chertoff's
favorite> U.S. TV show "24," with health officials battling in real
time to save the United States from imminent disaster, though of
course minus the violence.
Like the Counter Terrorism Unit at the heart of "24," the CDC used
its Director's Emergency Operations Center, a high-tech command
post at which scores of doctors and public health experts assist
decision makers who in turn brief government leaders.
Behind the scenes, planners draw on a wealth of research.
In calculating whether to close the border, for example, there are
hundreds of studies on the movement of pathogens, the impact of
public health decisions on the economy and the potential social and
political repercussions.
"What we do (in the exercise) is tailor our thoughts over the last
few years to the specific scenario that is playing out. These are
the facts on the ground: do our theoretical constructs hold," said
Martin Cetron, CDC director of the division of global migration and
quarantine.
Another consideration was whether to adopt a "containment" model,
by trying to stop the virus' spread, or a "mitigation" model, by
taking steps such as closing schools to lessen its impact once it
can pass freely from person to person, he said.
If they overreact, it could stifle the economy and cause a host of
unintended consequences. If they do too little they could fail to
impede the spread of the disease.
So will the United States be safer? The exercise is part of a long-
term plan involving multiple layers of government to prepare for
public emergencies. The game, set up by a team of former military
planners, is followed by an extensive effort to analyze mistakes.
"Doctrine number one is that we are learning, so we expect to make
mistakes ... We expect to own the mistakes that we make .... We are
a great agency but we are not perfect," Gerberding told a staff
briefing at the outset of the drill.
But in an ominous note, the next stage of the exercise to be held
over the summer will start with the assumption that the bird flu
outbreak has become a full blown pandemic.
See what's free at AOL.com.
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