-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: July 16, 2007 9:19:19 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: In 18 Months Bush Leaves Office with No "Legacy" Except
"They Didn't Hang Me"
GOP candidates fear Iraq war fallout
Lawmakers have started to veer from the party line
to keep from paying the price in next year's election
By Janet Hook
Los Angeles Times, July 16, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-
senategop17jul17,0,7228880,full.story?coll=la-home-center
Election day is more than a year away, but Republican Sen. Susan
Collins of Maine is already facing a barrage of attack ads,
protesters at her local offices and a strong Democratic challenger.
It's a far different environment than in her last race for
reelection, when her popularity was soaring and she won a
commanding 58% of the vote.
The one-word explanation for the change: Iraq.
As Congress wrestles with Democratic proposals to withdraw U.S.
troops and limit the war in Iraq, the home-state pressure on
Collins and other Republicans helps explain why an increasing
number of GOP lawmakers now seem ready to veer from the party line.
The 2008 campaign season is starting to take shape for
congressional candidates, and many Republicans see warning signs
that the steepest price for the White House's Iraq policy may be
paid not by President Bush, who will not be on the ballot, but by
the GOP lawmakers who will be.
In New Hampshire, a recent poll found Republican Sen. John E.
Sununu trailing one possible Democratic challenger by a double-
digit margin.
In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman raised about $300,000 less in the
second quarter than a stand-up comic -- his best-known Democratic
challenger, Al Franken.
In Oregon, approval ratings for Sen. Gordon H. Smith did not
improve after he switched positions and called for a U.S. troop
withdrawal.
Republicans say they hope passion about the Iraq war will cool by
the time 2008 ballots are cast. But they acknowledge that if the
election were held tomorrow, the war would be a ball and chain
around the GOP ankle.
The party was hobbled by antiwar sentiment in the 2006 midterm
election, when Republicans lost control of Congress. If the
politics of the war do not change, Republicans fear their hope of
regaining control of Congress in 2008 will not be realized.
"Do we hope Iraq is not an issue by election day? Sure," said
Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial
Committee. "But can we guess where we will be next year? No way."
The political fallout from the Iraq debate is hard to gauge,
analysts say, because it will hinge in large part on uncertain
developments in the war and whether Bush changes course.
That is why more Republican senators, after standing by Bush for
years, are now trying to reshape policy well before election day
arrives. Last week's Senate debate on defense policy featured a
who's who of Republicans facing reelection in 2008 signing on to
proposals designed to signal their dissatisfaction with the course
of the war.
Collins, Sununu and Coleman joined Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.)
and Pete V. Domenici (R-N.M.) in backing an amendment that would
set a target but not a binding date for withdrawal of U.S. troops —
a recommendation of last year's bipartisan Iraq Study Group.
This week brings another telling vote, as the Senate considers an
amendment by Sens. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and Jack Reed (D-R.I.) that
would force Bush's hand and set a firm deadline for a troop
withdrawal.
The fact that so few Republicans have been willing to embrace that
firm deadline means they will continue to be exposed to criticism
from Democrats and from constituents weary of the war. Some
Republican strategists worry that no matter what lawmakers do now,
the issue will leave some Republican incumbents vulnerable.
"There will be races that will be more competitive in places you
don't expect," said a senior advisor to one Republican facing a
tough reelection contest. "Fifteen months is a lifetime in
politics, it's true. But questions like this war don't go away
quickly. This has been three years coming. I don't think it goes
away in a New York minute."
Antiwar groups have tried to make it harder for Republicans to take
refuge in measures that fall short of a mandated withdrawal
deadline. That has been the message of 43 separate television ads
broadcast in recent months in the home states of targeted Republicans.
Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, an umbrella group for antiwar
forces, has organized a 10-week campaign called Iraq Summer to ramp
up pressure, sending 100 organizers to 15 states targeting 40
Republican senators and House members. Last week, it circulated
fliers portraying the amendment to carry out the Iraq Study Group
recommendations as "toothless" — illustrated with photos of Collins
and other Republicans with their front teeth blacked out.
"What is critical is to define them before they define themselves,"
said Tom Matzzie, Washington director of the liberal online group
MoveOn.org, part of the antiwar coalition. "The 2008 battleground
is expanding because of public frustration with the war in Iraq."
The Senate political map in 2008 is tilted in Democrats' favor: 12
Senate Democrats are up for reelection, while Republicans have 22
seats to defend. Many GOP incumbents are running in swing states
and places where opposition to Bush and the war are strong.
New Hampshire in the 2006 elections saw a landslide for Democrats,
fueled in part by opposition to the war. That makes for an
uncomfortable climate for Sununu's 2008 reelection bid. In May,
antiwar protesters invaded his Manchester office, standing around a
pile of shoes, which symbolized the casualties of the war. Nine
protesters were arrested just before midnight.
Sununu is backing the Iraq Study Group recommendations but has
rejected setting a date for withdrawal. One recent poll showed him
trailing Jean Shaheen 29% to 57%. Sununu barely beat the former New
Hampshire governor in 2002 and national party leaders are working
hard to persuade her to quit a post at Harvard's Institute of
Politics to challenge him again.
In Oregon, another swing state, Smith may have cut his political
losses when he became one of the first Republicans to denounce the
president's Iraq policy after the 2006 election.
But Adam Davis, an independent pollster in Oregon, said the
turnaround was hurting Smith with the Republican base, even while
it would "help him a lot with the independents." A recent poll by
Davis found that Smith's approval rating in Oregon was 46%, down
from 48% in October.
In Minnesota, Coleman is another Democratic target, because he is a
moderate Republican in a swing state who has stood with Bush in
opposing a withdrawal deadline. Democrats are far from settling on
the best candidate to challenge him, but Franken has shown that he
can be a formidable fundraiser. Franken collected $1.9 million in
donations from April to June, compared with $1.6 million by Coleman.
A recent ad in Minnesota by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee shows footage of bloody combat in Iraq and warns in
ominous tones: "Instead of doing the right thing, Sen. Norm Coleman
just gives us more of the same."
"Ads running in my state are not going to have any impact on my
judgment," Coleman said. "If I took a poll in Minnesota right now,
a majority of folks in my state would say get out of Iraq right
away. But I know that would be a disaster."
He said that by the election the U.S. would have charted a better
course in Iraq.
In Maine, the attacks on Collins started in February when a group
of antiwar Iraq veterans aired an ad during the Super Bowl urging
her to oppose Bush's proposal to increase troops. The ad, playing
on the theme of "on the one hand and the other hand," featured an
Iraq war veteran missing a hand.
A later ad linking Collins with Bush's Iraq policy was so withering
that the Collins campaign filmed an Internet video response, crying
foul on the facts and pointing out that it came from a national
political group.
Early polls show she has a solid lead over her Democratic
challenger, Rep. Tom Allen.
But Jennifer Duffy, analyst of Senate races for the nonpartisan
Cook Political Report, sees signs that Collins is on guard. "I've
never seen her so active so early," said Duffy, who has rated
Collins as among the most vulnerable Senate Republican incumbents.
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