-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: August 28, 2007 7:18:43 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED],
[EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Someone Betting SEVERAL BILLION$ That Stock Market Crashes
by Mid-September
August 26, 2007
http://mparent7777-2.blogspot.com/2007/08/45b-bet-on-another-911-
within-4-weeks.html
$4.5 billion options bet
on catastrophe within four weeks
Anybody have a clue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?
The two sales are being referred to by market traders as "bin Laden
trades" because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these
short-sell options valuable.
There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open
interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion.
Not a single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700
points away from current value. No one would buy that deep "in the
money" calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone
betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option
activity that I haven't seen before.
The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money
if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the
market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to
lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!
Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the
options expire on Sept. 21.
THEORIES:
The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock
and options markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual
activity reported above and two stories below. Those theories are:
1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept.
21 to tank the markets, OR;
2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-
prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US
currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial
revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The
drop-dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is
going to happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks
involved in these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having
engaged in this activity.
"$1.78 Billion Bet that Stock Markets will crash by third week in
September Anonymous Stock Trader Sells 10K Contracts on EVERY S&P/Y
"Strike" Shorts Stocks "in the money" effectively selling all his
SPY holdings for cash up front without pressuring the market downward.
This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes
right, the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of
pocket costs for buying these options will exceed $700 Million!!!
The entity who sold these contracts can only make money if the
stock market totally crashes by the third week in September.
Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and
unusual stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before
the attacks of September 11.
Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in
the same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11
attacks.
Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange
Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one
was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades
which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened.
The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a
complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in
September, seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is
in the works and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the
next four weeks from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."
-------------------
Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third
Renée Schultes
16 Aug 2007
http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2448565379
An anonymous investor has placed a bet on an index of Europe's top
50 stocks falling by a third by the end of September, as world
equity markets plunged for a third day and volatility hit a three-
year high.
The mystery investor has bought put option contracts on the DJ
Eurostoxx 50 index that will result in a profit if it plunges to
2,800 or below by the end of September. Based on the 2,800 strike
price, the position covers a notional €6.9bn, and potentially even
more using a market price of about 4,100 when the trades were done
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The identity of the investor is unknown but market sources
speculated it was either a large hedge fund hedging itself against
deepening losses, or a long-only fund manager pressing the panic
button to protect its gains.
The investor has bought a total of 245,000 put options on the
index. The September put option with a 2,800 strike was the most
popular DJ Eurostoxx 50 contract yesterday, according to data from
Bloomberg.
Volatility in European equity markets has risen sharply this week
as investors cut back on the amount of risk they are taking. The
VSTOXX index, which measures the volatility of the DJ Eurostoxx 50
index, hit 34 this morning, which is more than double its three-
year average.
Similarly the volatility of the US stock market was trading at
almost three times its three-year average, hitting 30 yesterday.
However, both indices continue to trade below their 2002 highs.
European stock markets were trading down almost 3% at by 13:00 GMT
today, after large drops in Asia and Australia overnight. The
Australian market fell 300 points at one stage when futures trading
was suspended for over an hour and traders were forced to hedge
positions by selling physical stocks rather than futures.
An analyst at Goldman Sachs JB Were in Australia wrote: "I think I
shall remember this day as the day that I saw the market go to
hell, look into the abyss - didn't like what it looked like and
then came screaming back up as far away from there as it could
get. ... It was a truly spooky day and I’ve seen a lot over the
last 20 years but today will be one that anyone who saw it will
never forget. But this is what market bottoms are made out of."
The rise in volatility and risk aversion has also contributed to a
sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen, which has been used to
finance the so-called carry trade, where investors borrow in a low-
yielding currency to invest in one with a higher-yield.
Analysts' belief that the yen carry trade is set for a major
unwinding has intensified today as the Japanese currency continued
to rally in morning trade.
The yen strengthened today as it broke through several
psychological barriers. The yen hit 113.60 against the dollar by
12:35 GMT, the first time in more than a year it has dropped below
114. The yen was substantially up against the dollar from
yesterday, when it traded at above 116.
Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York
Mellon, said: "With any hope of even a brief bounce emerging in the
yen crosses evaporating in the fierce glare of another horrible
close in New York, it is clear that the vicious, self-reinforcing,
downward spiral we were worrying about is already firmly established."
--------------------
More Investors Are Betting on Major Selloff in Stocks
By Jim Kingsland | 27 Aug 2007 | 09:13 PM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20461003
Not everyone on Wall Street is convinced that the worst is over.
In fact, some investors are betting tens of millions of dollars
that the market is headed for a selloff -- a major selloff.
The reason: worries about a worsening credit crunch, along with
speculation that the Federal Reserve may defy expectations and hold
off on cutting interest rates at its Sept. 18 meeting.
So far, over $500 million in so-called put options have been
purchased betting that the benchmark Standard and Poor's 500 index
will tumble anywhere from 5% to 11% in September. Some investors
are even buying put options calling for 52% decline. A "put" option
increases in value as the underlying stock or index falls.
To put it in perspective, a 5% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average would be the equivalent of 667 points. An 11% decline would
equal 1,468 points. And a 52% drop? You don't even want to know.
The upshot is that some major investors are putting up big money
that the market is facing a major decline.
"There is still fear and investors are buying crash protection,"
says Todd Salamone, senior vice president of research at
Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Of course, there are always investors betting on big declines —
they're called bears. What's unusual is the amount of money being
put up on such a doomsday scenario.
"The activity in those puts has been a lot more aggressive then we
have seen in the past," said Bill Lefkowitz, options strategist at
brokerage firm Finance Investments. "Part of it is the environment
and volatility where the Dow Industrials can easily swing over a
hundred points during the day, or session to session."
------------------
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/
bcnchina107a.xml
Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which
has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government
policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves
should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the
global financial order," he added.
He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went
even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power
to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum,
of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds,
contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar
as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other
countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange
rate is stable against the dollar. But once the yuan appreciated
dramatically, the Chinese central bank will be forced to sell
dollars, which might lead to a massive depreciation of the dollar,"
he told China Daily.
The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of
Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to
prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being
made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44% of the US national debt had left
America acutely vulnerable.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York
Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as
Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear
political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time
when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the
subprime troubles," he said.
A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate
Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as
retaliation ...
Get a sneak peek of the all-new AOL.com.
www.ctrl.org
DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
==========
CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic
screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are
sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis-
directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with
major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought.
That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and
always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no
credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply.
Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
========================================================================
Archives Available at:
http://www.mail-archive.com/ctrl@listserv.aol.com/
<A HREF="http://www.mail-archive.com/ctrl@listserv.aol.com/";>ctrl</A>
========================================================================
To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Om
