______________________________________ Stratfor's FREE Kosovo Crisis Center - http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/ The most comprehensive coverage of the Kosovo Crisis anywhere on the Internet ______________________________________ STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update May 5, 1999 Reports Claim Bin Laden Relocating to Somalia Summary: Several reports have surfaced recently, claiming that suspected terrorist-financier Osama bin Laden has left Afghanistan and is attempting to set up bases in Somalia. If these reports are true, it could result in further U.S. involvement in the growing tangle of African conflicts. Analysis: There have been reports over the past few months that Osama bin Laden had more than worn out his welcome in Afghanistan among his Taleban hosts. On February 13 of this year, bin Laden reportedly disappeared from his Afghan camp. Speculation as to his whereabouts was rife. Some said that he had fled to Sudan, others pointed to Yemen, and still others argued that he was still in Afghanistan. A new suggestion emerged last week that bin Laden was, in fact, moving operations to Somalia. On April 30, the London newspaper "The Independent" cited U.S. State Department sources as saying that Osama bin Laden may be looking at Somalia as a new safe haven. The sources said that bin Laden had visited Somalia and that his men are setting up a secure communication system in southern Somalia, possibly in Ras Kamboni, a coastal town near the Kenyan border. The sources claimed that this information emerged while U.S. security officers were in Ras Kamboni investigating the March 20 murder of a U.S. aid worker by Islamic extremists. Ras Kamboni is known for its fundamentalist activity, and particularly for the Islamic movement Al Ittihad movement, which reportedly has links to bin Laden. According to unconfirmed reports, bin Laden runs military training camps on islands off the Somali coast and is believed to be already financing Islamic militias in the Gedo region of Somalia. On May 1, the Arab daily "Al-Sharq Al-Awsat" cited informed Islamic sources in London as claiming that bin Laden was attempting to establish a base in Somalia. The paper claimed that once the U.S. Department of State realized what was happening, it contacted Somali warlord Hussein Mohammad Aideed and warned that it would withdraw his and his family's U.S. passports if he offered help to bin Laden. Aidid, whose clan controls part of Mogadishu, issued a statement on May 3 refuting the claims that bin Laden was setting up operations in his area of control in Somalia. However, he did not rule out that some of bin Laden's operatives may be in the Gedo region of southern Somalia, which borders Ethiopia and Kenya. While it is possible that the Taleban may finally have bid bin Laden adieu, Somalia is not exactly the most opportune place for the Saudi terrorist to set up operations. Whereas Afghanistan was a natural fortress, Somalia affords his organization little in the way of natural or institutional protection. Somalia has been in a constant state of anarchy since the 1991 ouster of Siad Barre, all but abandoned by the rest of the world and controlled by several warlords. Two warlords maintain tenuous control over the former capital, Mogadishu, while the northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland have declared their independence. Fighting still continues in the south, where another warlord seeks to create an independent "Jubaland." This means that there is no governmental security mechanism, as there is in Afghanistan, to protect bin Laden from the long arm of the U.S. government. Moreover, constantly shifting alliances among Somalia's warlords would make reliance on any one faction for protection a dangerous and unlikely move on bin Laden's part. Somalia's anarchy could be used defensively, especially by bin Laden, who has made a career of structuring an ad hoc organization from many disparate extremist groups. Given bin Laden's reported skill at forming and manipulating fluid alliances, he and his associates may be able to operate for some time in Somali camouflage. Still, Somalia does not provide nearly the security of Afghanistan, and if the Taleban indeed pushed him out, and he did travel to Somalia, it is more likely a temporary stop than a new home. In the meanwhile, reports that bin Laden's operations extend to Al-Ittehad in the Gedo region put an interesting spin on recent events. Somali warlords recently accused Ethiopian troops of launching raids into Somali territory -- one of them in pursuit of Al-Ittihad in the Gedo region. Ethiopia justified that attack by claiming that Al-Ittihad had received the support of Eritrea, by way of Hussein Aideed in Mogadishu. Eritrea and Ethiopia are currently engaged both in a large-scale border conflict and a growing war by proxy in Somalia. [http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/040799.asp; http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/042199.asp]. With bin Laden possibly relocating to Somalia, the U.S. may seek the support of Ethiopia to flush him out. This would significantly shift the balance in the Horn of Africa, where the U.S. is attempting to play honest broker in resolving the region's conflicts. Whether true or not, linking bin Laden to the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict, which is already linked to Somali infighting and Sudan's guerrilla war, could further drag the U.S. into the growing regional chaos. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates, sign up on the web at: http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
