There's Gold in Them There Black Helicopters By Aaron L. Task Senior Writer 5/7/99 3:31 PM ET Fact: For the two weeks ended April 6, noncommercial short interest in gold totaled 88,363 contracts, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Chicago. That was the largest short position in history (and just a fraction of total worldwide short interest). Short interest has declined in subsequent weeks but still remains at extremely high levels, equal to about 10% of total production last year. The Gold Conspiracy Gold Bugs Light Up as They Forecast a Short Squeeze Fact: Michel Camdessus, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has extolled the virtue of using gold-sale proceeds to pay for debt relief for "heavily indebted poor countries," in the IMF parlance. President Clinton has expressed support for the sale of up to 10 million ounces of the approximately 103 million ounces of gold committed to the fund. To varying degrees, the notion has been seconded by financial and political luminaries such as Vice President Al Gore, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown and Switzerland National Bank President Hans Meyer. Even German Finance Minister Hans Eicherl says Germany has "relaxed" its once-staunch anti-gold-sale stance. Fact: Last month, Switzerland voted to begin decoupling the Swiss franc from its gold backing. The Swiss central bank could begin selling gold as early as next year, The New York Times reported. Fact: The Gold Antitrust Action Committee, known as GATA, has retained securities law specialist Berger & Montague to assist in the "investigation of the alleged manipulation of the gold market," according to a press release from the organization. Bill Murphy, chairman of GATA, believes so-called bullion banks, which include many of Wall Street's biggest firms, have violated the Sherman Antitrust Act by colluding to keep the price of gold down. A senior partner at Berger & Montague confirms the firm has been retained by GATA but says "no decision to file a case has been made at this time." He declined to comment further. Fact: Last Tuesday, Murphy met with Rep. Jim Saxton (R., N.J.), vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. Congress must approve the proposed IMF gold sale, and Saxton has "taken a strong position of skepticism on the gold-sale issue," according to Christopher Frenze, chief economist to the committee vice chairman. Neither Saxton nor the committee has any position or comment on the allegations made by GATA, Frenze says. "Our focus is directed more at the IMF as an institution and how gold sales would relate to IMF finances and lending." (Those interested in more about Saxton's position should visit <www.house.gov/jec>.) Fact: Most market players deny there is any cabal corrupting the gold market. And despite Murphy's 25 years as a precious-metals trader, broker and analyst with firms such as the defunct Drexel Burnham Lambert, the former Shearson Lehman and Veneroso Associates, many believe his charge is, to be polite, meritless. An English Surprise Knocks Prices "I do not think his views hold much water," says Philip Klapwijk, managing director at Gold Fields Mineral Services in London. "The U.S. Treasury and Fed are happier with gold at a certain level, but it's equally wrong to suggest they are in favor of excessively low gold, which sends a deflationary signal. It's a big leap to say there is intervention or a systematic campaign." Indeed, without Oliver Stone, it is a huge (and ultimately unprovable) leap to say IMF gold-sale proposals are part of some vast, multiwinged conspiracy involving the top levels of government and so-called bullion banks (among others). Yet today, the price of gold tumbled $7.60 an ounce to $283.10 after the Bank of England, much to the gold community's surprise, announced its plans to sell up to 125 tons, or almost 60% of its reserves, between now and March 2000. Before the announcement, gold had crept up to the high end of its several-month-long trading range of $275 to $290 an ounce. Already unmoved by the critics, the Bank of England's announcement today stiffened Murphy's resolve. "This is right on cue," he says. "Yesterday, the bonds got clobbered and the gold market was surging and getting close to the point where gold borrowings could go under water. Then out of nowhere, right on cue, the BOE comes out. It's unbelievable." And other gold market participants are becoming increasingly outspoken about the action (or lack thereof) in the once-precious metal. Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE) Chairman Peter Munk railed against central banks and the IMF for generating "enormous negativism" in the market at the company's annual meeting Tuesday. Munk also criticized hedge funds and other speculators for using rumors and the opaqueness of the gold market to exaggerate weakness in gold prices. Previously, Nicky Oppenheimer and Bobby Godsell, chairman and CEO, respectively, of AngloGold (AU:NYSE ADR) of South Africa, and Chris Thompson, chairman of Gold Fields (GLDFY:Nasdaq ADR) of South Africa, made separate but similar comments. Murphy cites these public comments as evidence "the tide is turning about what we're talking about." [More on Murphy and GATA can be found at: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com ] Ghosts of Greenwich What Murphy is talking about has its origins (where else?) in Long Term Capital Management. Murphy, among others, speculates Long Term Capital had a large short position in gold -- he estimates 300 tons. "They borrowed gold from bullion dealers at 1% as part of the leverage process," he says, then proceeded to engage in a "gold carry trade" through which the infamous fund shorted gold, while simultaneously taking a long position on U.S. Treasuries. However, Murphy has no proof such a trade exists (or ever existed), and Peter Rosenthal of Rubenstein Associates, the hedge fund's public relations firm, says, "Long Term never has and doesn't participate in the gold market, either in the metal itself or any derivative." Still, Murphy is not alone. "It has been our observation that Long Term Capital was involved in virtually every carry trade that was out there -- yen carry trade, interest-rate convergence, etc.," says Ronny Kraft, CEO of Gotham Capital Management in New York, who is long various gold stocks. "What makes it interesting is that the gold trade is the only one with a physical commodity as the underlying, which would make it the most difficult to cover." Kraft, Murphy and others believe that when Federal Reserve officials brokered together a consortium to rescue Long Term Capital last August, they were aghast at the extent of the firm's gold short (among other trades). Moreover, if Long Term's Wall Street clients were mimicking the once-legendary hedge fund's strategies, as some contend, many of the same firms given the task of saving the hedge fund (and thus, "the system") were also short gold. Thus, a rise in the metal would not only add to the misery at Long Term Capital, but many of the same institutions responsible for its rescue. Richard Torrenzano, spokesman for the consortium, says this is "not a consortium issue" and defers to Long Term Capital. Greenspan's Golden Jawbone? Meanwhile, Murphy believes the gold jig was up before that meeting in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (which merely supplied a facility). "Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise," Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said July 24 during testimony before the House Banking Committee regarding regulation of over-the-counter derivatives. "It was a comment not many people paid attention to," Murphy says. "Only in retrospect are people starting focus on that. We know Long Term Capital didn't happen overnight. Because the Central Bank of Italy and Fed officials were invested in Long Term Capital, it's hard to believe he just happened to come out with this comment." Fed officials deferred calls regarding gold sales to the IMF. IMF officials declined to comment on the GATA. A Treasury spokesman referred to the Treasury Web site for the department's position regarding gold sales, particularly Deputy Secretary Lawrence Summers' April 21 House testimony. The spokesman declined to comment on the GATA. Looking back, Murphy and his supporters say Greenspan's largely overlooked comment was the first of a series from global banking and political officials designed to keep the price of gold suppressed. "All of a sudden, you saw the market was stopped dead as it would get anywhere near $300 an ounce," Murphy recalls. "Bullion dealers were offering unheard-of credit terms to producers to sell forward gold." Because bullion banks are gold producers' main creditors, Murphy declined to reveal the names of producers he claims have come forward to discuss potential gold price manipulation. The relationship between the banks and producers is why many view the comments from Barrick, Gold Fields and AngloGold as being so extraordinary. Murphy Not a Lone Wolf While not espousing the same conclusion, Donald Coxe, chairman of Harris Investment Management of Chicago and chairman of Jones Heward Investments, also questions recent trends in gold. "The same political leaders who got the West into a war that promises to be costly, messy and long -- after promising us it would be cheap, civilized and short -- have announced that the [IMF] should sell bullion from its gold hoard to pay off debts from bankrupt nations," Coxe wrote in a May 1 op-ed piece in The Globe and Mail. "This strategy is being pushed piously, with the backing of the Pope. It may also be motivated cynically, with the backing of a shrewd ex-trader, U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. Announcements of monster pending sales naturally drive down prices of the merchandise that will soon be dumped." Keeping the price of gold weak is "politically smart," Coxe added. "It will help convince economists and central bankers that disinflation or even deflation is still at work, despite rapid money-supply growth and some of the lowest interest rates the world has seen." Finally, one Nasdaq dealer who specializes in precious-metals stocks recalls that when "every credit market in the world was traumatized" last fall by Russia's debt default, gold remained "incredibly placid." The trader, who supports Murphy's efforts but requested anonymity, acknowledges "no one knows for a fact if Long Term Capital was a borrower. But it'd be surprising if they hadn't considered the gold market." As for the "outrageousness" of Murphy's claim, the source notes John Meriwether, founder of Long Term Capital, was "forced out of Salomon Brothers because his subordinates were caught rigging the U.S. bond market auctions." Furthermore, one rogue trader at Sumitomo "clearly distorted" the copper market a few years prior, he observes. "Is it so outrageous? I don't know of any hypothesis more plausible. The market is behaving in a strange way." =================================== http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/744621.html Gold Bugs Light Up as They Forecast a Short Squeeze By Aaron L. Task Senior Writer 5/7/99 3:30 PM ET Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Bigfoot. Area 51. Perhaps claims of manipulation in the gold market deserve to be in the same category: compelling to some, but lacking relevance to most and rationality to others. The Gold ConspiracyThere's Gold in Them There Black Helicopters Certainly there are plenty of arguments to explain why the idea of collusion in the gold market is a crock. But that doesn't absolve prudent investors from understanding what is happening there, and what's happening is gold stocks were on the rise until today's debacle. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index rose 3.8%, capping a 44.6% rise since April 5. In the same period, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%. The XAU's advance came to a screeching halt today after the Bank of England announced its intention to sell up to 125 tons, or almost 60% of its reserves, by March 2000. The gold and silver index was off 11.5% today as the price of gold shed $7.40, or 2.6%, to $283.20 an ounce. Still, the XAU's jump came without a concurrent increase in the price of gold. After hitting a 20-year-low average of $294 an ounce last year, gold has been mired between $275 and $295 an ounce in 1999. The Bank of England's announcement today had conspiracy hounds howling, but even if you don't think nefarious forces are keeping gold's price down, beware the reasons it could revive. "Gold left to its own devices would have moved solidly through $300 in response to a rise in oil and chaos in the Balkans," says Don Coxe, chairman of Harris Investment Management and Jones Heward Investments, both of Chicago. "The fact it hasn't is a case where I believe the people involved are trying to prevent it from giving an inflation signal. It's not a conspiracy, but I'd say it's pretty well orchestrated." Coxe notes nearly every major player in the gold market -- from central banks to producers -- is short the metal. "There are no bulls in gold," he says. "Yet the alternatives to gold, the only three currencies in the world that matter -- the U.S. dollar, yen and euro -- don't look like strong currencies. This should be the time for a move in gold." The investment chief says that many economists who are dismissive of the potentially inflationary implications of rising oil prices point to gold's lassitude as proof. Yet many of the same economists say "gold doesn't matter," Coxe observes with a chuckle. "When you have a paradox on this scale, it will have to be resolved [and] I have a feeling it will be resolved in higher gold prices." Gold stocks do not fit the criteria of Coxe's large-cap value funds, but they're the lifeblood of the Tocqueville Gold fund. The roughly $13 million fund was up 28.4% through yesterday since its inception June 30, 1998, according to John Hathaway, senior portfolio manager. Big positions in the fund include Harmony Gold (HGMCY:Nasdaq ADR); Getchell Gold (GGO:NYSE), which is being acquired by Placer Dome (PDG :NYSE); Homestake Mining (HM:NYSE); Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE); and South African producers AngloGold (AU:NYSE ADR) and Gold Fields (GLDFY:Nasdaq ADR). "I personally don't think there is overt collusion in gold," Hathaway says, noting he has no affiliation whatsoever with the Gold Antitrust Action Committee. But, he adds, "I think the posture of the market is very wrong-footed. The mining companies that have sold forward, the bullion dealers that may be short, all are going to be [holding] bad assets. Like when the yen carry trade went sour, the market is simply not liquid enough. When gold goes through various chart points, it's going to go through at $100, $200 clips, not a dollar a day. These guys are going to be trapped." The Mother of All Short Squeezes If gold prices ever ramp in a sustainable way, it will almost certainly be a boon for precious-metals stocks. But a sharp increase in gold prices would engender great pain to those short the metal, a group that is believed to include most hedge funds active in commodities, as well as bullion banks such as Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD:NYSE), J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE), Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse First Boston and, through affiliates, Citigroup (C:NYSE) and Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE). "Any slight move aside from normal organic buying and we think it's going to be one of the biggest short squeezes in the history of the market," says Ronny Kraft, CEO of Gotham Capital Management. "We're getting set up for something really disastrous. The fact people are totally oblivious is par for the course." Kraft says "regression models" show a more than 80% correlation between the past 150 days and the market tops of 1929, 1987 and 1973. He believes a move in gold could trigger a massive selloff in equities as players short gold sell their stocks to cover those positions. "I'm not some crazy doomsday prophet," the hedge fund manager says earnestly. "I want to be a bull, but the charts are telling me I can't." Other market watchers don't see quite so Draconian a scenario. "That's like saying a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo started El Nino," says George Milling-Stanley, manager of gold market analysis at World Gold Council. "I don't think we're going to hurt the stock market. I think the stock market might precipitate a move in the gold market vs. vice versa." Finally, Tocqueville's Hathaway says: "My point is, the story is so strong, you don't need to postulate a market crash to say gold is interesting. You have to know people are essentially trapped in bearish positions, but they don't know it yet." Unless, of course, they know something we don't.
