-Caveat Lector-

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: War in The Balkans - CIA takes blame for targeting wrong site
Date: 11 May 1999 14:37:53 -0000
From: Activist Mailing List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Activist Mailing List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

Activist Mailing List - http://get.to/activist

We couldn't possibly blame the political leaders for incompetence even
while they continue to claim that humanitarianism is their only
motivastion; they lose control because they'd rather not micro-manage
the proceedings.

=====================


INDEPENDENT (London) May 10

War in The Balkans - CIA takes blame for targeting wrong site

By Mary Dejevsky in Washington

As Nato and US officials were forced into a second day of apologies,
the US identified faulty CIA intelligence as the source of the mistake
that led to the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the
costliest single error of the operation in terms of alliance strategy.

In an unusual late-night statement, the US Secretary of Defense,
William Cohen, and director of the CIA, George Tenet, said the mistake
occurred at the planning stage and went unnoticed through subsequent
checks. Four laser-guided bombs hit the embassy late on Friday after
it was identified as a weapons supply and procurement centre. "Those
involved in targeting mistakenly believed the Federal Directorate of
Supply and Procurement was at the location that was hit," the
statement said after an apologetic preamble.

"It was the result of neither pilot nor mechanical error . faulty
information led to a mistake in the initial targeting . In addition,
the extensive process in place used to select and validate targets did
not correct this original error." The statement concluded: "A review
of our procedures has convinced us this was an anomaly that is
unlikely to occur again. Therefore Nato authorities intend to continue
and intensify the air campaign."

Official determination that the fault lay in the initial targeting was
an attempt to quash other theories, from pilot error to Serbian
trickery. While the Nato spokesman, Jamie Shea, indicated that the
Cohen-Tenet statement would probably be the most detailed explanation
made public, it left many questions unanswered.

It did not elucidate, for instance, when in the intelligence process
the mistake was made. One theory was that information on the location
of the weapons supply centre could have been culled from outdated
maps. The Chinese embassy building is less than five years old and the
new quarter of Belgrade has been developed in the past decade.

As Nato officials stressed, conventional maps are not the only source
of information, and are augmented by satellite reconnaissance and
information from the ground. One of the constituent pieces of
information - the map reference or identification of the building or
the site - was incorrect: and the CIA is not saying which. As one
official also noted, targeting concentrates on identifying buildings,
not ruling them out. Any list of "undesirable" targets could have
included the embassy and found its position coincided with that
established for the supply department, but this would not have been
done.

Reports from Belgrade said the Yugoslav supply department was never at
the Chinese embassy site. According to one theory, the CIA might have
had information that the site contained a weapons bunker - but not
that an embassy had been built on top.

Another report, in a Turkish paper, suggested Serbian intelligence
moved equipment into the embassy to receive information from China
that would help in the defence of Belgrade against the US - and that
Nato had set out deliberately to destroy that potential link, whatever
the diplomatic cost. There were denials of this, including from China.

The CIA admission that the building was misidentified at a relatively
early stage appears to exclude one theory: that Serbian intelligence
might have tricked Nato into a raid that would have untold diplomatic
fall-out because of China's opposition to the war and the veto it
wields as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. When Nato
appeared to be moving towards accepting a UN role in a settlement,
alienating the most hostile member of the Security Council would
damage Nato's own interests above all.

Serbian intelligence - or disinformation - has been broached as a
possible cause of one costly Nato error: the bombing of at least one,
and possibly two, refugee convoys near the Macedonian border four
weeks ago. The favoured explanation is that Nato pilots, flying high
to evade Yugoslav fire, misidentified the convoy. A small detail from
the official account of what went wrong, however, indicated that the
main attack was triggered by an intelligence report passed to the lead
pilot from the Aviano air base that positively identified the convoy
as military in nature.

One theory, not expressly denied by Nato, is that this information
could have come from an informant on the ground to trick pilots into a
fatal error. Nato receives information about Yugoslav forces from
members of the Kosovo Liberation Army in Kosovo and passes it on using
codes. If a code fell into the wrong hands - as is alleged may have
happened with the convoy bombing - Yugoslav forces have a powerful
tool against Nato pilots.

To prepare for operations over Yugoslavia, Nato pilots train in
simulators which surround them with a "virtual reality" of the terrain
and structures they are to target. While the accuracy of targeting may
be restricted by the height they must fly at (although they have
recently been permitted to fly lower), the quality of intelligence is
crucial at every stage of the operation.

As Nato and US officials stressed yesterday, errors - human,
mechanical or intelligence - in the campaign have been "a fraction of
1 per cent: there were 12 that went astray out of 8,988 that did not
go astray," said Mr Shea.

This aggregate success rate, however, is unlikely to avert the
criticism that will break over the CIA now that the bombing of the
embassy has been laid at its door.

Pilloried a year ago for failing to detect that India was preparing to
conduct a nuclear test, it has struggled to reassert its authority - a
struggle not helped by allegations that extensive Chinese espionage in
the US went undiscovered for more than a decade. In Washington, where
the pursuit of scapegoats for the perceived failure of the Yugoslav
operation is in full swing, the CIA has sprung with one bound to the
top of the list.


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