-Caveat Lector-

ROBERT RUBIN'S ROLE IN THE RECOVERY

Last week, financial markets paid Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin
the highest complement they could: they crashed on the
announcement of his resignation.  The markets were acknowledging
that Rubin deserves much of the credit for the economic expansion
and the enormous wealth it has generated for millions of
Americans.  Yet, ironically, it is not for anything he has really
done, but rather for the bad things that probably would have
happened had he not been there to stop them.

Clinton came into office hoping to be another LBJ, with plans for
big spending programs galore.  But Rubin convinced him that
financial markets were very nervous about this and needed
reassurance.  So instead of proposing another Great Society,
Clinton proposed a big deficit reduction plan.  Although the plan
was faulty, it convinced markets that Clinton was not another
Jimmy Carter, and would not unleash the inflation genie.

Rubin also played a critical role in getting Republican Alan
Greenspan reappointed as Federal Reserve chairman in 1996, and
has consistently protected him from administration criticism.
This has allowed Greenspan to manage monetary policy for the good
of the country.  The result has been the near elimination of
inflation and the lowest interest rates and unemployment in a
generation (see figure http://www.ncpa.org/pd/gif/pd051799a.gif).

Rubin's replacement, Deputy Secretary Lawrence Summers, has been
a professor of economics at Harvard University, but will not have
the standing as Rubin has at the White House, nor the stature
Rubin has in financial markets.  If, for any reason, there is an
economic slowdown or a financial crisis, it could bring out
Clinton's bad big government instincts.  Only this time Rubin
won't be there to head them off.

Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow, National Center for Policy
Analysis, May 17, 1999.

For text http://www.ncpa.org/oped/bartlett.html

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