-Caveat Lector-
>From the NewAustralian
www.newaus.com.au
> China's Balkan
> lesson for
> the Pacific
>
> The New Australian
> No. 123, 14-20 June 1999
>
> Any military man will tell you that no matter how well-equipped an
> army is what ultimately matters is the Will. Without this technology
> becomes expensive accouterments. What has struck Beijing is not the
> fact that it was social democrats who ordered the attack on Serbia
> (the same people who never condemned a communist regime) but their
> lack of will revealed by their fear of suffering casualties. Many
> people have been deceived into thinking that because Clinton and Blair
> forced NATO into attacking Serbia this exhibited courage and
> determination on their part. Beijing sees it differently. Moreover, it
> was not impressed with the aerial bombardment. To be able to plaster
> from a short distance a small target like Serbia does nothing to
> intimidate Beijing. And as far as she is concerned, these are weapons
> she will soon command herself, including counter-measures.
>
> Its long term strategic objective is to drive American bases and
> influence out of the Pacific region and to exercise hegemony over it.
> Now this does not mean another Pearl Harbour but it does mean that
> unless China's nationalists are kept in check, if not actually
> subdued, there will be a great deal of tension in the future between
> Washington and Beijing. I have written before that the Chinese
> leadership knows its history. It knows that powers rise and fall. It
> is coming to the conclusion, if it hasn't already, that America is in
> a state of terminal moral decline. To China's ruling elite the
> reelection of Clinton; his popular support; the refusal of the
> American people to evict him from the White House, despite his
> contempt for them; his treason and gutting of America's military and
> the refusal of America's so-called intellectual elites to abandon him
> are symptoms of a country that has lost its spirit and rejected its
> heritage and destiny. Nevertheless, keenly aware of the country's
> weaknesses Beijing will move with caution.
>
> Now this interpretation of the American mood and its moral character
> could lead to Beijing taking a more aggressive stand in the near
> future against American policy and interests, even if it means
> uttering threats and demanding demeaning apologies. This will be done
> to undermine Asian countries faith in American resolve. By convincing
> Asian countries that America is straw man, an ally whose word cannot
> be counted on, it would hop to detonate a chain reaction that would
> result in these countries deciding to throw their lot in with Beijing.
>
>
> I doubt if Americans will ever fully learn the dreadful role Clinton
> has played in fuelling and strengthening the PLA's ambitions. By
> selling it the key to America's military secrets and aiding the PLA in
> modernising it military it has brought closer the time when it can
> intimidate its neighbours. This is what most American observers have
> overlooked. To drive America out of most of the Pacific China does not
> have to threaten the nuclear destruction of American cities; she only
> has to apply subtle, and perhaps not so-subtle, threats against the
> rest of Asia. This is not so far fetched as many might think once one
> realises that Beijing seeks domination and not occupation.
>
> The danger, I think, is that the Chinese nationalists tend to view
> America as Rome viewed Carthage. If this idea should take hold the
> consequences could indeed be fearful. It is the same kind of idea that
> took hold among pre-war Japanese nationalists. But I view America in
> another light. To me she is not suffering a moral decline but sliding
> into a moral malaise. The common values that held it together are
> constantly under attack: ridiculed and scorned by its own
> intellectuals. Its history and traditions mocked and denigrated. Its
> moral standing in the world battered. This continuous assault has
> created confusion and uncertainty among the mass of its citizens.
>
> If America is going to ever again face down genuine threats to its
> existence it must first win the war at home. If the so-called values
> of the likes of Clinton should finally prevail America will be in
> mortal danger. Its sheer size and reputation for revitalising itself
> pose dangers that tyrants cannot afford to tolerate.
>
> The New Australian
A<>E<>R
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