-Caveat Lector-

from:
http://www.business2.com/articles/1999/06/content/y2k.html
-----
COUNTDOWN TO Y2K

Geeks Speak: Don't Freak
While others are panicking about Y2K, many tech-heads remain unfazed.
By Declan McCullagh

Thomas Edwards isn't worried about Y2K. Why should he be? The Sync, a Laurel,
Md.-based Internet broadcasting company he founded, likely won't notice the
date change. The Sync's array of FreeBSD Unix servers will survive New Year's
Eve with no problems, Edwards predicts.

"I don't think it's a major problem. You should just back up everything," he
says. The video encoding software The Sync uses to post daily cybercast
shows, including one featuring JenniCam's popular blonde host, also should be
fine. "It doesn't care what time it is," Edwards says, nonchalantly.

Y2K will be the last thing on the minds of most engineers on New Year's Eve.
The 29-year-old entrepreneur who is about to begin his second round of
venture capital financing, is not planning personal Y2K preparations either.
You won't see him stockpiling food, water, or gold coins. Edwards also is not
fretting about power failures or other infrastructure disruptions.
"Personally, I'm pretty much ignoring it. I don't think this is all going to
be that bad," he says.

The vast majority of engineers and programmers around the world feel the same
way, according to a March 1999 survey conducted by Addison Whitney and
sponsored by Attachmate. The study showed that computer professionals are far
more likely to shrug off Y2K than their non-geek brethren. Only 13 percent of
the 1,100 high-tech workers polled said they were planning to stockpile food
and water, and 29 percent said they might take out extra cash from the bank.



"The closer people are to the problem, the more they realize it's not a
disease that spreads from system to system. It's not as pervasive as they
thought," says Attachmate spokesperson Serge Timacheff. If anything, Y2K will
be the last thing on the minds of most engineers on New Year's Eve. Only 12
percent of respondents said they were worried about mainframe crashes, while
62 percent plan to party as the millennium turns. Just one-fifth of IT
managers say they believe that computers and equipment will fail.

The general public, on the other hand, is plenty worried. A December 1998
Time/CNN poll found that 47 percent of Americans might "take extra cash out
of [their] bank account" and 33 percent were considering loading up on food
and water. Six of 10 Americans said they were somewhat or very concerned
about Y2K. A more recent poll by USA Today and the National Science
Foundation came up with similar results.

Stockpiling fear
Why are engineers less worried about Y2K than everyone else? The most likely
reason is the public's uncertainty about technology. If you don't understand
much about how computers work, you are more likely to fall prey to dire
predictions of doom-and-gloom.

Millennial tub-thumpers have been quick to profit from society's worst
nightmares. Fundamentalist Gary North has made a living for years predicting
modern society will end in panic and ruin (see "Propheteering," March '99,
p26).

Not helping matters is overreaction by tech-clueless officials.
One Maine legislator has proposed spending $50 million to create a mammoth 13
million cubic foot pile of rice and beans that would feed every state
resident for three months. If dumped on a football field, the pile of rice
and beans would rise 36 stories and weigh 124,000 tons. The National Guard
commander says he has no armory space to store it.

Why are engineers less worried about Y2K than everyone else? The most likely
reason is the public's uncertainty about technology.


Fortunately, the public's worst fears appear to be subsiding, at least for a
while. Six months ago, Steve Portela, general manager of Idaho-based Walton
Feed, was swamped by a flood of Y2K orders that he could not handle. "All in
all, I don't have a real pleasant experience with people yelling at me when I
come to work in the morning," Portela said last November. But now, he says,
orders have dwindled.

Might the reduced fears be just the calm before a storm of jittery, credit
card-maxing shoppers descend on the local camping supply store? The U.S.
government has long worried about Americans emptying their bank accounts as
New Year's Eve approaches. Even gun and ammunition supply companies predict a
sharp upswing in demand in late 1999. "What we're trying to do is gear up for
the second six months of the year," says Kristi Hoffman, a manager at Black
Hills Ammunition in Rapid City, S.D.

Other tech entrepreneurs say it's prudent to be prepared. After Montreal
suffered through a debilitating ice storm last year that resulted in a
two-week power outage, Austin Hill vowed his company would be ready for any
future catastrophe. As president of Zero-Knowledge Systems, which sells tools
to protect privacy online (see "Cookie Monsters," p16), Hill asked his human
resources department to tell his employees where to buy food and water. If
Y2K causes disruptions - or another ice storm arrives - he'll be ready. "If
something happens, our employees are taken care of," he says.

Declan McCullagh ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) covers Y2K for Wired News and is the
editor of Y2Kculture.com.
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