-Caveat Lector-
[ 'Our' media tells us the fleeing Serbs are burning
Kosovar Albanian homes -- while covering for the Albanian
KLA rebels who are burning the Kosovar Serb's homes to force
them to flee... Now, how about all those 'mass graves' --
are they the graves of Kosovar Serb civilians who have been
Cleansed by compassionate Clinton's 'NATO allies', the KLA? ]
-----forwarded message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Wed, 16 Jun 1999
Subj: [RuMills] STRATFOR analysis: FRANKENATO's MONSTER
From: Jack Perrine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Wed, 16 Jun 1999
Subj: Another marvelous STRATFOR analysis: FRANKENATO's MONSTER
[ Another marvelous analysis from STRATFOR that gets down to
the cold reality of the real world --Jack ]
990616
Frankenato's Monster
NATO's decision to exploit the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA)
during Operation Allied Force to maintain pressure on Serbian
forces on the ground is coming back to haunt it. While Albania
helped create the KLA, NATO nurtured it, and now that the KLA
is running amok, NATO must tame or destroy it. Much to NATO's
chagrin, the KLA did not simply accept NATO control over the
province, lay down its arms, and join the UN sponsored
political process. Rather, seizing the opportunity and the
initiative, the KLA has poured into the province ahead of NATO
and on the heels of withdrawing Serbs - filling the power
vacuum and establishing de facto control. KLA forces have
seized control of two border crossing points into Albania, as
well as most of the towns and villages of southern Kosovo
including nearly all of Prizren. The KLA has presented its
own "interim government," and has as yet refused to disarm.
Worse, multiple sources report the KLA are carrying out
reprisal attacks against Serbs, burning Serbian homes and
setting in motion a mass exodus of Serbs from the province.
NATO has now reportedly negotiated a settlement with the KLA,
whereby the KLA will be disarmed, though the document will not
be signed for another three days and it is unknown how long the
agreement will take to be carried out after that. In the
meantime, NATO continues to explain its inability to control
the KLA and defend ethnic Serbs by arguing that it does not
have sufficient forces in place to control the province. In
fact, refugees report that NATO controls little more than the
main roads to Pristina. And to be more precise, it is not
simply that NATO does not have enough troops to establish a
presence throughout Kosovo. NATO does not have enough troops
to confront and forcibly disarm the KLA throughout Kosovo.
While the KLA has said it may agree to demilitarization, and
hand over its heavy weapons, it has steadfastly refused to
give up small arms. And why should it? As far as the KLA
is concerned, it is the victor. NATO has confirmed this by
declaring the Serbs defeated. The KLA fought, with NATO's
assistance, for an independent Kosova. NATO says it won, and
so the KLA is establishing its independent Kosova. If NATO
has different ideas, what is it going to do, go to war against
the KLA?
The problem is, while NATO used the KLA, it did not share the
KLA's goals. Despite what Serbs believe about Washington's
insidious desire for a Greater Albania, for the Clinton
administration, Kosovo was little more than a clumsy and
distracted attempt to avoid the same condemnation it received
for failing to respond to claims of genocide in Rwanda. Now
it is caught in the potential hypocrisy of presiding over a
reverse ethnic cleansing in Kosovo and the redrawing of the map
of the region along ethnic lines. And even if mysterious dark
forces in Washington have somehow duped the na�ve Stratfor on
this count, and Clinton actually flies the KLA flag in his
bedroom, they have not changed the fact that NATO is not merely
the U.S. It also includes countries like Greece and Italy,
who with aspiring NATO member Macedonia are appalled at the
prospect of either a KLA-dominated independent Kosova or a
Greater Albania.
The KLA is a monumental problem for NATO, with the potential to
divide and discredit the alliance more deeply than the bombing
campaign. Not only can NATO politically not afford to live
down to Belgrade's claims that it was truly fighting to
dismember Serbia, nor abide the Serbian and Russian military
responses to a de facto KLA "victory," its individual members
can not tolerate such a dismemberment or victory either. That
said, NATO has now been presented with the prospect that the
ground casualties it sought so hard to avoid sustaining will
come, not from the Serbs, but from uncooperative Kosovar
Albanians.
...and we also have these intriguing items from STRATFOR :
1817 GMT 990616
Russian UN Ambassador Sergei Lavrov says that the issue of
KLA demilitarization will be approached at the UN SECURITY
COUNCIL meeting. Lavrov said the KLA rebels are "violating
the Security Council's demands"
1808 GMT 990616
Both Ukrainian and Bulgarian officials aknowledged on
June 16 that they will provide air corridors for Russian
troop transport as soon as they are needed
For minute to minute updates of the world look at STRATFOR:
http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo
Jack
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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