-Caveat Lector-

from:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/
<A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A>
-----
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Today's Lesson From The Road to Serfdom

by F. A. Hayek


The most effective way of making everybody serve the single system of
ends towards which the social plan is directed is to make everybody
believe in those ends. To make a totalitarian system function
efficiently, it is not enough that everybody should be forced to work
for the same ends. It is essential that the people should come to regard
them as their own ends. Although the beliefs must be chosen for the
people and imposed on them, they must become their beliefs, a generally
accepted creed which makes the individuals as far as possible act
spontaneously in the way the planner wants. If the feeling of oppression
in totalitarian countries is in general much less acute than most people
in liberal countries imagine, this is because the totalitarian
governments succeed to a high degree in making people think as they want
them to.
=====

Fin-de-siecle

Party Time: World to End Next Week

Nostradamus said so

According to a prophesy of Nostradamus, the Four Horsemen of the
Apocalypse will wreak their destruction in July 1999 - next Sunday, to
be precise - and many millennial pessimists believe it. Have we really
got five days left to live? asks Nigel Farndale
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NEXT Sunday will be a big day for War, Death, Famine and Plague. After a
light breakfast and a flick through the morning papers, the Four
Horsemen will saddle up and go about their apocalyptic business like
there's no tomorrow. Which, of course, there won't be.

This is what Nostradamus, the 16th-century French astrologer and
physician, predicted will happen in five days' time. Apart from the bit
about the breakfast and the papers. That was just my way of easing you
gently into this creepy subject. And, strictly speaking, the apocalypse
part is only how his followers interpret his best-known prediction: that
a great King of Terror will come from the sky in July 1999.

This was one of a thousand predictions Nostradamus wrote - in rhymed
quatrains and grouped in hundreds - in a book called Centuries. In full,
Century X quatrain 72 reads:

"L'an mil neuf cens nonante neuf sept mois Du ciel viendra un grand Roy
d'Effraieur Resusciter le grand Roy d'Angolmois Avant apres Mars regner
par bon heur."

(In the year nineteen hundred and ninety nine, seven months, from the
sky will come a great King of Terror. He will resurrect the great King
of Angolmois. Before and afterwards Mars reigns happily.)

Whatever the correct interpretation of X.72 is, there are several
reasons why we should take the predictions of Nostradamus more seriously
than those of, say, Mystic Meg. First, Nostradamus may well have
foreseen the Great Fire of London, the French and Russian revolutions,
Napoleon, Hitler, the assassination of Kennedy, and the Gulf War -
depending on how you decipher his highly ambiguous writings.

Second, the legend of Nostradamus is woven into the fabric of history.
The Maginot line, for instance, was drawn up in the 1920s and 1930s
because Nostradamus had predicted that France would be invaded via
Switzerland. And not only do the libraries at the Vatican and Lambeth
Palace contain early editions of Centuries - which was first published
in 1555 and hasn't been out of print since - but also his devotees have
included Catherine de' Medici, Elizabeth I, Napoleon, Goebbels and
Churchill.

Third, with his flowing grey beard, scholar's gown and brooding
countenance, Nostradamus looked the part. Even his name resonates with
enigma and gravitas.

Not surprisingly then, millennial doomsayers around the world are
becoming terribly excited about the arrival of the King of Terror, or
anti-Christ, next month. Members of the Aetherius Society - who believe
Jesus was an alien - are holding four power circles, or prayer sessions,
a week in anticipation of the big day. Although Michel de N�tredame
(Nostradamus was his Latinised name) was born in St R�my de Provence in
1503 and practised medicine for a while in Paris, Salon-de-Provence is
the town with which he is most closely associated. He lived most of his
life in Salon - and died of dropsy there in 1566. Consequently, it has
become a magnet for occultists, New Age mystics, pagans and Christian
fundamentalists alike. The Nostradamus museum there is always busy, and
guided tours of the town are so popular they have to be booked weeks in
advance.

Do an Internet search on the word Nostradamus and you will come up with
thousands of sites. Worldwide, books on Nostradamus are selling in
millions. The Japanese especially are in the grip of apocalyptic panic.
Most bookshops in Tokyo have a Nostradamus section, some displaying as
many as 185 titles devoted to our man. And a recent poll showed that 20
per cent of the population of Japan believe the King of Terror
prediction. Death cults have even formed in order to help fulfil the
prophecy - that is what Shoko Asahara's sarin gas attack on the Tokyo
subway was all about, albeit prematurely, in 1995.

Closer to home, Channel 4 is devoting a whole evening's viewing to the
subject. "Nostradamus Night" will be on Saturday, the night before the
world is expected to end (Nostradamus enthusiasts believe that July 4,
American Independence Day, is the most likely day next month for the
Apocalypse because of a reference the seer made to "Al- quilloye", the
American eagle).

Matthew Dumbrell, a civil servant turned prophet, believes that the
total eclipse of the sun on August 11 is a more likely time for the
world to end. In fact, he is so certain it will end at 12.50pm on that
day, he has planned his final hours. He will return to his birthplace -
Lewes in Sussex - check in to the White Hart Hotel, dine alone and go to
bed early. Next morning he will settle his bill and head for the Downs
where, alone with his Bible and a copy of Centuries, he will wait to
meet his maker. He has even placed a �1 bet with William Hill, at odds
of a million to one, that the King of Terror will come at that time
(though quite how he plans to collect his winnings is unclear). He has
also written to various heads of state and placed advertisements in The
Daily Telegraph warning of our impending doom.

Michael Day, a regular preacher at Speaker's Corner in Hyde Park,
believes that July will see a build up to the events circling the
eclipse in August. The planetary alignments at the time will echo the
Nostradamus prophecy, he says; and the Four Horsemen are the eagle
(Scorpio), the bull (Taurus), the fairman (Uranus) and the lion (Sun in
Leo). He thinks the King of Terror will appear as a great war.

A couple of months ago, the prospect of a Third World War beginning in
July didn't seem so far-fetched. One broadsheet headline especially -
"Yeltsin says West risks a World War" - made the hairs on the back of my
neck stand on end. Another - "Chinese fury at Nato bombs" - had
particular significance for the followers of Nostradamus, because the
second part of the King of Terror prediction translates as: "He will
resurrect the Great King of Angolmois. Before and afterwards Mars reigns
happily." (Angolmois is an anagram of the 16th-century French word
Mongolois, or Mongolians, or Chinese. The King of the Mongols was
Genghis Khan. Mars is the god of war.)

But not everyone believes the great King of Terror will come from the
skies in the form of a Russian or Chinese nuclear missile. German
devotees have interpreted the King of Terror as being the Cassini space
probe, which will come to within 730 miles of Earth in August, bearing
its load of 72lbs of plutonium fuel. Others anticipate an asteroidal
impact some time this summer. And, although it wouldn't happen until
September, another interpretation of the King of Terror is "Infinity
Day". Many of the outdated mainframe computers that regulate nuclear
reactors in Russia and Eastern Europe are programmed with a language
called Cobol which uses a string of nines to mean infinity. When they
reach the ninth minute of the ninth hour of the ninth day of the ninth
month of 1999 they will think they have reached the end of time, stop
working and cause a series of meltdowns. (The Russian Atomic Energy
Ministry does not believe there will be a problem and so has declined to
bring forward its next scheduled computer check - which will be sometime
next year.)

All mystics, psychics and clairvoyants like to keep their predictions as
vague as possible, to increase their chances of appearing to be right.
Nostradamus was no exception. But he had an added incentive for being
obscure. Although he converted to Catholicism, he was born Jewish and
lived his life in fear of the Inquisition. In order to avoid prosecution
as an occultist or magician, he deliberately made his prophesies
difficult to interpret. He wrote them in a crabbed hybrid of French,
Italian, Spanish and Hebrew, as well as using his own neologisms
(constructed from ancient Greek and Latin). He also had a fondness for
anagrams, such as Rapis for Paris, which he (sometimes) signalled by
writing the word in capital letters.

This all means that people can read into his prophesies whatever they
want to, almost. Faint parallels are deemed precise descriptions and
inconvenient facts are ignored. When Nostradamus referred to the "Master
of Time", for instance, his devotees have taken this to mean Einstein -
but maybe he meant Dr Who. And "Pau, Nay, Loron" is supposedly an
anagram of Napaulon Roy (a 16th-century spelling of the words Emperor
Napoleon). But what if Nostradamus was referring to someone who happened
to be called Pau Nay Loron? Most dubiously of all, the name "Mabus" is
said to refer to Saddam. Why? Because if you hold it up to the mirror
and change the b for d... Oh, please.

The more famous Nostradamus became in his own lifetime, the more the
Inquisition grew suspicious of him. One prediction especially made them
think he was in league with the devil. He said the King of France, Henry
II, would die in a jousting accident - "The young lion shall overcome
the old in single combat, inside a golden cage his eye will be put out
in one of the two contests, then he shall die grievously." Four years
later, in 1559, Henry, wearing a suit of golden armour, did indeed die
when a jousting lance went through his eye.

As with his writing style, so Nostradamus's method of prediction was far
from straightforward. He combined traditional astrology (using charts
and star signs) with the visions he saw when scrying (looking through
the flame of a candle into a bowl of water placed on a brass tripod)
with a technique called comparative horoscopy (that is, he looked up the
position of the planets at the time of great events in the past and then
made a prediction that history would repeat itself when similar
planetary conjunctions occurred in the future).

Some of the results are indeed spooky. In one quatrain he referred to
Hister, and this has been taken to mean Hitler. In another, he wrote
"the first person of the third [Reich] will do worse than Nero. He will
be valiant in shedding human blood and will cause ovens to be built [the
gas chambers]". He also seemingly predicted the battle of Trafalgar.
"Between two seas stands a promontory," he wrote. "A man will later die
by a horse's bridle. Neptune unfurls a black sail for this man." The
promontory is Gibraltar (between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean)
near where the battle of Trafalgar was fought. The man is believed to be
Villeneuve, the admiral of the French fleet who was later strangled to
death by a horse's bridle. Neptune's black flag indicates his defeat at
sea.

Nostradamus had a gloomy disposition, and this was coloured by his own
experience. He lived in a time of plagues and through his (then) radical
ideas on the importance of hygiene and the stupidity of trying to cure
patients by bleeding them he became the best-known - and most effective
- plague doctor in France. But he nevertheless lost his first wife and
two sons to the plague. And he witnessed terrible famines, when severe
weather conditions destroyed crops for several years in a row. He would
also have seen the slaughter of Catholics by Protestants, who recruited
thousands of mercenary German cavalry to lay waste to swathes of eastern
France.

So should we feel uneasy as next Sunday approaches, or should we just
dismiss Nostradamus as a charlatan whose predictions are fodder for the
superstitious, witless and gullible? Richard Dawkins, the
internationally renowed Darwinian rationalist - and Professor of the
Public Understanding of Science at Oxford University - favours the
latter. "People who believe in coincidence tend to be bad
statisticians," he tells me. "They only notice the apparently successful
predictions, they don't notice the failures." Dawkins believes astrology
is an aesthetic affront. "Its pre-Copernican dabblings demean and
cheapen astronomy, like using Beethoven for commercial jingles."

Strange phenomena, he argues, can nearly always be explained in terms of
probability. And our willingness to be impressed by apparently uncanny
coincidences is something we inherit from our Stone Age ancestors.
Because they lived in small communities, they would all hear about every
coincidence that happened to everyone they knew, which would have been
only about 50 people. As a consequence, our 20th-century brains are
calibrated to detect patterns and to gasp with astonishment at levels of
coincidence which, by today's standards, are actually quite modest,
given that mass communication means we hear about the experiences of
many millions of people, not just 50.

Numbers have a totemic power, and 1999 is no exception. But, as Dr
Johnson warned, you should always be suspicious of round numbers,
because they are too convenient. And, as Isaac Asimov wrote: "Inspect
every piece of pseudo-science and you will find a security blanket, a
thumb to suck, a skirt to hold." The interest that is being shown in
Nostradamus at the moment seems to indicate, then, that certain sections
of society are feeling insecure - that they want to take comfort in not
having to make authentic choices, that is, not having to take
responsibility for their own destinies.

Shelley von Strunckel, a magazine astrologer, believes we are
emotionally insecure because we have become divorced from our spiritual
roots. "People need metaphysical reassurance," she tells me, "because
life in the Aquarian Age is changing so quickly. People are confused and
apprehensive. They are attracted to anxiety magnets like the millennium
bug, and Nostradamus and the eclipse. We all have a part of us that
likes to be scared. As for me, I'm busy planning what to wear next
season. That's how seriously I'm taking the prediction."

After speaking to the author and academic Peter Lemesurier, the
country's leading authority on Nostradamus, I'm not taking the prophesy
seriously at all. In the past, Lemesurier has shown that Nostradamus
never actually predicted the end of the world - not least because his
predictions continue up to the year 3797, when he appears to have run
out of steam. Lemesurier also reveals that, when Nostradamus used the
word Hister, he was actually referring to the classical name for the
Lower Danube.

Understandably, Lemesurier has made himself unpopular with the more
fanatical followers of the seer. "Most of the people talking up the
panic simply aren't trained linguists," he says with a sigh. "I get
around 300 e-mails every day from megalomaniacs and paranoid idiots.
Most are trying to read their own agendas into the prophesy. I'm
constantly attacked for being a charlatan, fraud and liar. One man
calling himself the King of Terror has even made death threats. You're
playing with fire with Nostradamus. He inspires incredible ferocity and
intolerance."

Lemesurier says he is agnostic as to whether Nostradamus was a true
prophet or not, but that he nevertheless enjoys solving his linguistic
puzzles as an intellectual exercise. To interpret the King of Terror
quatrain Lemesurier has gone back to the original text of 1555 and
discovered that it actually refers to "roy deffraieur" (an appeaser
king). In subsequent corrupt editions, after the death of Nostradamus,
the word acquired an apostrophe to become "roy d'effraieur" (king of
terror).

So there you have it. Thanks to a misplaced apostrophe, the world won't
end next Sunday after all.

The London Telegraph, June 29, 1999


Signs of the Apocalypse

Rare Barbary Lion Discovered

Now, if there were only any Christians left to feed to it

HOEDSPRUIT, South Africa - When Elsayed Hussein Akef fled Mozambique in
1996, abandoning his bankrupt Akef Egyptian Circus and leaving its
lions, tigers, horses, dogs and last sick python to starve to death, he
must not have realized what he had left behind.
Nor did the Mozambicans and Britons who saved the animals. It was only
when three of the lions were safe in pens here at the Hoedspruit
Research and Breeding Center for Endangered Species that someone
realized that Giepie, the huge male with the rich black mane running the
length of his underbody, did not look much like other lions.

Veterinarians now say he is one of the few Barbary lions left in the
world. The last one in the wild was shot in 1921 in Morocco, and for a
few months, there were claims that Giepie was the only Barbary left.

But the excitement over finding him led small European zoos and circuses
to pipe up, ''Hey - we've got a lion that looks like that.'' One of them
even agreed to ship its lioness to South Africa, and now the possibility
exists that the subspecies can be bred back into viability.

Barbary lions are the stuff of legend. It was Barbaries, captured in
Rome's North African colonies, that ate Christians in the Colosseum.
Haile Selassie had several in his court when he ruled Ethiopia. The MGM
movie lion, some assert, was one. But now the subspecies exists mostly
as genetic bits and pieces in other lions, because many were captured
for circuses and interbred.

Scientists say that the whole idea of a lion ''species'' is rather
tricky. Species are usually separated by ability to mate, but a lion and
a tiger can produce a cub, just as a donkey and a horse can produce a
mule.

In Africa, lions are thought of as one species, but there are several
types that seem not to interbreed in the wild. Barbaries may be one, but
they were wiped out of the wild before they could be studied.

''A Barbary is based on its look, the big thick mane going from its
belly to its groin,'' said Peter Rogers, the Hoedspruit center's
veterinarian. ''It's sort of like some humans having extra thick
beards.''

How Giepie (pronounced HEE-pee, and renamed after a Hoedspruit employee
with a wild haircut) got here is a roustabout romance in itself.

Between 1993 and 1996, the Akef circus wandered slowly down Africa, from
Djibouti to Zimbabwe, stopping to put on its dog-and-pony acts,
contortionists and snake charmers for audiences paying pennies. But it
often camped for months without performing, and conservationists believe
it was really a front for smuggling endangered species.

Six chimpanzees, several pythons and some rare gray parrots were seized
from it, and documents showed that it was buying chimps from Zairian
smugglers. When officials tried to make arrests, Mr. Akef claimed
diplomatic immunity and got Egyptian officials to intervene.

In Zimbabwe, the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals
finally cracked down in late 1995, confiscating three dying pythons in a
raid.

The circus, ordered deported, slipped into Mozambique and camped in a
park in the capital, Maputo. In June 1996, Elena Son, manager of a tour
business, visited and found Mr. Akef long gone and his workers
struggling to feed the animals and themselves. One tiger was dying and
the lions and horses were so thin their ribs stuck out. The big cats lay
in their own excrement in the small cages where they had spent their
lives.

Miss Son paid to buy them meat and brought in Animal Defenders, a
British animal rights group. It found homes in South African game parks,
pushed through the complex paperwork, fended off a Mozambican nightclub
owner trying to seize them for bad debts and trucked them to Hoedspruit.


Here, released into 11-hectare (28-acre) enclosures, the lions were
scared even of rustling leaves. ''They didn't know how to walk in the
bush,'' said Lente Roode, the center's owner. ''They didn't know how to
drink from the pond.''

News of the rescue reached the ears of other zoos. A bankrupt safari
park in Bologna, Italy, offered its two Barbary-looking lions, Arturo
and his sister, Sissi, if the center would pay the fare. The price,
$16,000, broke Mrs. Roode's budget, but she managed it. Arturo is
sterile, but Sissi may be bred with Giepie.

Their meeting has been delayed while they get to know each other through
the fence. Between lions, a failure in sex appeal means a first date may
end in a fatal fight.

International Herald Tribune, June 29, 1999


The Sheep Will Believe Anything

Wheee! How Will We Spend a Trillion Dollars in Budget Surplus!

Clinton wants to put some of the money he took out of Social Security
back in. Praise Clinton, Our Saviour!

WASHINGTON - Seeking to capitalize on new projections showing that the
federal budget surplus over 10 years will be $1 trillion more than
anticipated, President Bill Clinton on Monday unveiled sweeping new
proposals to allocate the windfall among Social Security, Medicare and
other spending and tax-cut proposals.
Mr. Clinton's plan is sure to renew and intensify his long-running
battle with Republicans in Congress over the nation's priorities as it
enters a new era in which the two parties must divide up pots of money
far larger than anything they could have imagined even a year or two
ago. For the current fiscal year, the White House now expects an overall
budget surplus of $99 billion, the biggest ever and $20 billion more
than it projected in February.

''Now we have a chance to do even more to use the fruits of our
prosperity today to strengthen our prospects for tomorrow - indeed for
tomorrows well into the 21st century,'' the president said.

So robust is the expected flow of revenue into the Treasury under the
new White House proposals that by 2015, the government will have paid
off the entire $3 trillion in national debt held by the public,
Democrats said.

The White House wants to use much of the money on revised approaches to
shoring up the two big entitlement programs, Social Security and
Medicare, both of which will face serious financial problems in coming
decades.

Under his new plan, Mr. Clinton said that Social Security can be put on
sound footing until 2053, nearly two decades beyond the point it will
run into trouble if nothing is done. And he will call for Medicare to
get enough new financing to keep it solvent until 2027, an improvement
of about a decade beyond current predictions.

Democrats said that with so much extra money now on the table - the new
projections show about $1 trillion available over the next decade even
without including excess Social Security revenues that have swelled
surplus figures in recent years - Mr. Clinton will open the door to a
sizable tax cut.

Until now, Mr. Clinton had insisted that he would agree to a tax cut
only after Social Security's finances had been made stable for at least
75 years, the actuarial benchmark for the retirement system's solvency.
His new approach implies that he would be willing to consider a tax cut
even if Social Security's solvency is not guaranteed for that long.

Still, Democrats said Mr. Clinton intended to demand that Republicans
accede to his approach to Social Security and Medicare before
considering tax cuts or allowing any substantial increase in spending.

''If he means what he says, he's reversing Democratic plans to spend the
Social Security trust fund on more Washington programs and following the
congressional Republicans' lead in locking away Americans' retirement
security,'' said John Czwartacki, spokesman for the Senate majority
leader, Trent Lott, Republican of Mississippi.

Republicans are already calling for a tax cut of $775 billion over the
next decade, and the new surplus figures are certain to make them more
determined to return more money to taxpayers.

But there is considerable pent-up demand for additional spending within
both parties, for purposes as varied as the military, transportation and
health.

Mr. Clinton, however, will not call for a removal of the tight spending
limits imposed on Congress by the bipartisan 1997 balanced budget
agreement, Democrats said. Mr. Clinton also wants his main tax-cut
proposal, to provide incentives for retirement savings to low- and
middle-income families, to get priority over Republican calls for
tax-rate reductions, reduced capital gains taxes, cuts in the estate tax
and other tax cuts at the top of the Republican wish list.

Mr. Clinton is scheduled to unveil a separate proposal Tuesday for
overhauling Medicare, the health insurance system for the elderly.

In putting out a proposal early in the week, Mr. Clinton was trying to
get a step ahead of the Republican leadership, which will have a new set
of surplus estimates available from the Congressional Budget Office by
mid-week .

Mr. Clinton's new plan includes a revised version of a proposal that the
two parties have been jockeying over for several months: a ''lock box''
to ensure that the excess Social Security revenues are not spent, but
used only to reduce the national debt or to ensure the retirement
system's long-term viability.

In his original budget proposal in January, Clinton proposed reserving
62 percent of the budget surplus over 15 years for Social Security, but
in a way that would allow him to spend a portion of the Social Security
surplus in the next few years. Both parties have rejected that approach,
and although they differ on details, have basically endorsed setting
aside every dollar of each year's Social Security surplus.

White House officials said their new plan would respond to the
congressional criticism, and would also include a provision that would
link reducing the national debt to improving Social Security's long-term
financial condition.

International Herald Tribune, June 29, 1999


Tibet

China Chooses a New Holy Man for Tibet

Collecting Karma

SHIGATSE, China - A Tibetan boy, only 9 years old and at the heart of a
political dogfight between the Dalai Lama and China, arrived at a sacred
Tibetan temple on Monday, blanketed in tight security as China pressed
Tibetans to accept him as the choice for the second holiest post in
Tibet.
Shielded in a 21-vehicle convoy that included wailing police vans and an
ambulance and surrounded by monks with walkie-talkies, the boy roared
into the Tashi Lhunpo monastery to officiate over an annual Buddhist
ceremony in Tibet's second largest city.

After the unraveling of a 30-meter (100-foot) satin depiction of the
Buddha of today, the boy returned to his well-guarded compound nearby.
Several thousand Tibetan pilgrims, some prostrating themselves in the
dirt at the foot of the temple's mud walls, were kept far from the
youngster, whom China chose in 1995 as the reincarnation of the Panchen
Lama - the second most revered figure in Tibet Buddhism.

The Dalai Lama picked another boy and that child and his family are
believed to be under house arrest.

The show of force and the unwillingness of Chinese authorities to allow
a group of foreign reporters to actually see the doe-eyed youngster,
named Losang Qamba, was an indication of the difficulty Chinese
authorities are having in persuading Tibetans to accept the boy as their
new ''Ocean of Knowledge,'' or Panchen Lama.

In a pre-dawn visit to a temple in Lhasa on June 18, for example,
Chinese troops - bearing automatic weapons - took up positions on the
roof of the famed Jokhang Monastery, banned traffic from the surrounding
Barkhor district in Lhasa and closed the 90-kilometer (55-mile) road
from the airport into town to prepare for the boy's arrival.

Security was similarly tight for his arrival in Shigatse on June 20,
witnesses said.

The controversy over the new Panchen Lama, the 11th in a line that
stretches back centuries, is more than just a religious tussle. It cuts
to the heart of the legitimacy of China's rule over Tibet and
illustrates the tenuous support China' s government has in this,
China's, most remote province.

It also underscores the enduring authority of the Dalai Lama, the exiled
temporal and spiritual leader of the Tibetan people, who fled China in
1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese Communist rule.

Since that uprising, China's policy toward Tibet has alternated between
fierce repression and perfunctory tolerance of its unique culture and
Tibetan Buddhism.

The 10th Panchen Lama died in the Tashi Lhunpo monastery of an apparent
heart attack on Jan. 28, 1989 during a period when anti-Chinese
demonstrations raged throughout Tibet. He was beloved by many Tibetans
and had been a long-term critic of Chinese Communist rule while working
within the Chinese system to better the lives of Tibet's 2.4 million
people.

Detained eight years for criticizing Communist policy in Tibet, he was
banned from traveling to Tibet from 1964 to 1982 and was never allowed
to reside permanently in Tashi Lhunpo, the traditional home of Panchen
Lamas and the site of the world's biggest bronze Buddha.

Ironically, many Western analysts blame the Dalai Lama for sparking the
controversy. In May 1995, he announced his choice of a boy from Nagchu
Province in Tibet as the Panchen Lama's reincarnation. Monks from Tashi
Lhunpo had been in secret contact with the Dalai Lama and had submitted
a list of names.

The assumption was that China would allow the Dalai Lama to participate
in choosing the 11th Panchen Lama as long as he did not publicize it and
did not contradict the impression that Beijing ran the procedure.

But after the Dalai Lama made the announcement, the abbot from Tashi
Lhunpo, Chatral Rinpoche, was arrested and sentenced to jail for illegal
contacts with the Tibetan leader. He has not been released. Beijing then
went ahead and chose a different boy in a ceremony that involved
plucking a ball of dough from a golden urn. The official Chinese press
agency, Xinhua, recently dubbed him ''Soul Boy.''

In interviews supervised by Chinese officials, religious figures
contended that Tibet's people supported Beijing's choice for the Panchen
Lama.

Nema Tsering, a deputy governor of Tibet, said a concern about
''separatist terrorist activity'' explained the tight security. ''We can
do nothing but increase his security,'' he said. ''No matter what you
say, in Tibet there is a separatist struggle.''

Wang Dui, a deputy director of the Jokhang monastery, said the welcome
at his monastery for the Panchen Lama had been both ''gracious and
warm.'' At Tashi Lhunpo, a 64-year-old monk named Ang Tsering said -
with a deadpan expression - that the monks there felt ''unlimited
happiness'' at the young boy's arrival.

But in surreptitious conversations, monks at both monasteries charged
that they had been placed under enormous pressure by China's government
to accept the boy. One crimson-robed monk at the Jokhang said no real
worshippers came to see the boy and that the monastery's 115 monks were
herded into the institution's main hall on June 18 hours before dawn
without being told what was happening.

''All of us were very uncomfortable,'' he said. ''They threatened us.
They said if we didn't behave we'd be kicked out of the monastery.''

''The pressure here is very high,'' echoed a monk at Tashi Lhunpo, which
has more than 800 monks. ''They told us that if we didn't behave we
would be forced out and that the monastery would not be allowed to
replace us.'' China already limits the number of monks in monasteries in
Tibet. Before the Cultural Revolution, 3,800 monks practiced at Tashi
Lhunpo.

Many pilgrims who attended the three-day festival at Tashi Lhunpo also
said they did not accept China's choice. More than 15,000 flocked to the
monastery on Monday, the first day of the three-day festival, to see a
depiction of the Buddha of the past.

Clutching a hand-held prayer wheel, and mumbling Buddhist prayers, one
elderly nomad, his long hair wrapped in crimson cloth and his ears
pierced with turquoise studs, said he had walked five days to reach
Shigatse.

''I didn't come here for the boy,'' he said in broken Chinese. ''I came
here to collect karma.''

International Herald Tribune, June 29, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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