-Caveat Lector-
"Koskinen urged people to prepare for possible trouble as they might for
a winter storm or a hurricane: Buy flashlights and batteries, keep enough
cash, food and water for several days and make copies of financial and
medical records.
"But he cautioned against stockpiling supplies, which could lead to
local shortages, or draining bank accounts, which could strain [or destroy]
the nation's banking system.
"An AP poll this month found most Americans don't expect major problems,
but nearly a third plan to stock up on food, water and other supplies. About
one-quarter of Americans planned to make large withdrawals of cash from their
banks ..."
Gov't. Y2K Expert Predicts Failures
By TED BRIDIS
.c The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) - Don't expect the Year 2000 technology problem to disappear
after Jan. 1. President Clinton's top Y2K expert said failures could extend
well beyond New Year's Day.
Although John Koskinen predicts there will be a national ``sigh of relief''
in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic
failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.
Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said
in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press that some failures may not
become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date
rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card
bills and other financial paperwork.
``It won't evaporate until after that,'' Koskinen said. ``Clearly, this is
more than a January 1 problem.'' But he also slightly hedged his predictions:
``None of us are really going to know until after January 1.''
Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the
last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when
those machines will assume it is 1900.
Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others
may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may
take weeks to notice.
``The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing
it correctly but it's doing it all wrong,'' Koskinen said.
Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Monday, Jan. 3,
as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the
first time.
Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even
though most years ending in ``00'' don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.
A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the
street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information
about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign
governments.
Koskinen urged people to prepare for possible trouble as they might for a
winter storm or a hurricane: Buy flashlights and batteries, keep enough cash,
food and water for several days and make copies of financial and medical
records.
But he also cautioned against stockpiling supplies, which could lead to local
shortages, or draining bank accounts, which could strain the nation's
financial system.
``If we get a couple hundred million Americans doing anything differently,
we're going to create economic problems,'' he said.
An AP poll this month found most Americans don't expect major problems, but
nearly a third plan to stock up on food, water and other supplies. About
one-quarter of Americans planned to withdraw cash in case of trouble.
Koskinen predicted the most widespread problems will occur in developing
nations that were slow to begin repair work. He named certain regions that
recently suffered financial problems, including Southeast Asia, Eastern
Europe and Russia. But he acknowledged that parts of Africa, Central America,
South America and the Caribbean also were likely to suffer.
``Clearly, some of the developing countries of the world are going to have
some difficulties,'' he said, adding that only 25 to 30 of the world's
nations were well prepared. ``Many more countries are going to have problems
than not.''
The State Department will begin issuing travel advisories in September for
U.S. citizens about which countries to avoid.
Koskinen also disclosed that the government will consider evacuating American
citizens from countries with widespread failures. He said each U.S.
ambassador will make that decision.
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