-Caveat Lector-
> Publications of the Center for Security Policy
> No. 99-D 89
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> -------
>
>
>
> DECISION BRIEF
> 4 August 1999
>
>
> China Flies One New, Threatening Missile and Unveils Another:
> What Other Surprises are in Store for an Undefended America?
>
> (Washington, D.C.): The day after China announced the successful
> flight of its newest intercontinental-range ballistic missile --
> the Deng Feng 31 (DF-31), an article in the Chinese
> government-owned Hong Kong newspaper, Wen Wei Po, disclosed the
> existence of another, medium-range missile heretofore unknown to
> be in the PRC's arsenal.(1)
>
> What Missile?
>
> The latter, designated the Deng Feng 25 (DF-25), is said in this
> news item (which must be assumed to be, given its locus, an
> officially authorized announcement) to be capable of delivering a
> 2,000 kilogram warhead over ranges from 1800 to 2500 kilometers,
> depending upon the model. The newspaper notes that the U.S. lacks
> any missile defense capable of intercepting either of these
> "second-generation" Chinese missiles -- or, indeed, three others
> also being developed and/or fielded (the DF-21, DF-41 and the
> Julang 2, a submarine-launched version of the DF-31).
>
> The article gives a short description of each of these missiles.
> That concerning the DF-25 reads as follows:
>
>
>
> The Dongfeng--25 missile has a heavy warhead, which weighs around
> 2,000 kg. It can be loaded with multiple nuclear warheads as well
> as conventional warheads. The Dongfeng--25, which has a shooting
> range of 1,800 km, has outstanding functions as a tactical
> weapon. Dongfeng--31, which was developed later, inherits the
> outstanding functions of the Dongfeng-25 strategic missile.
>
>
>
> If an accurate characterization of the DF-25's capabilities, this
> missile would be capable of holding at risk virtually all of the
> United States' Asian allies and forward deployed forces in the
> region. The fact that this weapon system was not previously known
> to be in the PRC's order of battle is particularly troubling
> insofar as it means that the development and deployment of a
> missile -- which, according to the Chinese government, has served
> as the basis for the country's newest ballistic missile (i.e.,
> the DF-31) -- went undetected by U.S. intelligence. Even more
> sobering is the reality that the Chinese have already simulated
> missile attacks on American bases and allied targets in Asia,
> attacks that might in the future be carried out by an unknown
> quantity of DF-25s.
>
>
>
> The Bottom Line
>
> This article in the PRC newspaper was a clear message to America,
> Japan and Taiwan: You still don't know everything about China's
> capabilities. It must now be asked, what else has been
> successfully concealed from the American intelligence community?
> If this missile, with a one city-busting nuclear warhead or
> multiple smaller ones can slip past the United States, what else
> has done so? Could the PRC have more ICBMs pointed at this
> country now than was previously assessed to be the case? Has
> China successfully hidden its transfer to rogue nations of DF-25
> missiles or other ballistic missile systems?
>
> The implications of this revelation call to mind one of the
> findings of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat
> to the United States, chaired by former Defense Secretary Donald
> Rumsfeld, when it ominously concluded: "The newer ballistic
> missile-equipped nations...would be able to inflict major
> destruction on the U.S. within about five years of a decision to
> acquire such a capability....During several of those years, the
> U.S. might not be aware that such a decision had been made."
> Clearly, the idea of waiting any further to begin deployment of
> effective missile defenses for the United States pending
> "warning" of an emerging threat must be seen to be as
> unacceptable as it is irresponsible.
>
> - 30 -
>
> 1. See the Cox Committee report (Vol. 1, p.180).
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> -------
>
>
> NOTE: The Center's publications are intended to invigorate and
> enrich the debate on foreign policy and defense issues. The views
> expressed do not necessarily reflect those of all members of the
> Center's Board of Advisors.
>
> Top of Page� 1988-1999, Center for Security Policy
>From www.security-policy.org/papers/1999/99-D89.html
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